Based on seed crop data of time scale and meteorlogy data in Shandou Seed Orchard of Chinese fir, Anhui Province, six meteorological factors have been selected as forecast factors by means of dendroclimatology and stepwise regression analysis, and seed crops of past year in the seed orchard of Chinese fir have been verified with fuzzy overall merit model. The results showed that Chapman-Richards model y(t)=92. 55( 1 - e-0.15t)1.79 was the best equation of tiem trend of seed crop in the seed orchard of Chinese fir (r = 0. 99); the discrimination of overall merif models with modified fuzzy operation was higher than that of initial fuzzy overall merit model, and the forecast results were basically in accordance with the real seed crops. The first grade forecast of seed crop in 1990 was also made for Shandou Seed Orchard of Chinese fir.