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杉木种子园产量年景的Fuzzy预测方法(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
1991年04期
Page:
38-44
Column:
研究论文
publishdate:
1900-01-01

Article Info:/Info

Title:
A FUZZY FORECASTING METHOD OF SEED CROP FOR SEED ORCHARD OF CHINESE FIR
Article ID:
1000-2006(1991)04-0038-07
Author(s):
Fang Shengzuo (Nanjing Forestry University)Xu Xianwen Pei Zhongcheng
Shandou Seed Orchard of Chinese Fir, Anhui Province
Keywords:
Seed orchard of Chinese fir Seed crop Climate index Subordinate function Fuzzy overall merit model
Classification number :
-
DOI:
10.3969/j.jssn.1000-2006.1991.04.008
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
Based on seed crop data of time scale and meteorlogy data in Shandou Seed Orchard of Chinese fir, Anhui Province, six meteorological factors have been selected as forecast factors by means of dendroclimatology and stepwise regression analysis, and seed crops of past year in the seed orchard of Chinese fir have been verified with fuzzy overall merit model. The results showed that Chapman-Richards model y(t)=92. 55( 1 - e-0.15t)1.79 was the best equation of tiem trend of seed crop in the seed orchard of Chinese fir (r = 0. 99); the discrimination of overall merif models with modified fuzzy operation was higher than that of initial fuzzy overall merit model, and the forecast results were basically in accordance with the real seed crops. The first grade forecast of seed crop in 1990 was also made for Shandou Seed Orchard of Chinese fir.

References

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Last Update: 1900-01-01