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杨小舟蛾在上海地区的发生规律及其预测预报(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2006年03期
Page:
113-116
Column:
研究论文
publishdate:
2006-03-20

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Study on Epidemic Law of Micromelalopha troglodyte in Shanghai
Article ID:
1000-2006(2006)03-0113-04
Author(s):
ZHENG Mao-can1 WU Xiao-qin1* QIAN Fan-jun1 WANG Yan2 WU Shi-ying2 YE Jian-ren1
1. College of Forest Resources and Environment Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China; 2. Shanghai Forestry Station, Shanghai 200000, China
Keywords:
Micromelalopha troglodyte Epidemic law Forecast model Shanghai
Classification number :
S763
DOI:
10.3969/j.jssn.1000-2006.2006.03.026
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
Biological characteristics, life cycle and epidemic law of Micromelalopha troglodyte in Shanghai were studied for the first time. There are 5 generations per year, specially up to 6 generations. After the first generation, there is a severe generation overlap phenomenon. Epidemic is closely related to climate and environment:there is some prominent positive correlation among its population and original pest density, daily average temperature, rainfall; daily mean humidity. This insect occurred when the daily average temperature was over 15℃, and prevailed when the daily average temperature was 25~30℃, daily mean humidity was 65%~ 85%, daily mean rainfall was 50~150 mm. On this base, a short-term forecast model was built:Y=-- 101. 909--0. 091xl +0. 155x2 -t-0. 338x3 +0. 659x4 +-0. 539x5, R=0. 739. After being tested, the model has a high accuracy and can be used to forecast in Shanghai.

References

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Last Update: 2013-05-20