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基于BIOME4模拟未来中国东部南北样带生物群区的分布(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2011年03期
Page:
4
Column:
研究论文
publishdate:
2011-06-13

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Modeling the biome of NorthSouth transect of eastern China in the future using BIOME4 model
Author(s):
DONG Zhuoyao1 OUYANG Yan1* LI Hang1 WANG Lei2 ZHAO Dehua1 AN Shuqing1 LIU Shirong3
1.Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Global Changes, School of Life Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;2.Jiangsu Academy of Forestry,Nanjing 211153, China;3.Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China
Keywords:
BIOME4 modelNorthSouth transect of eastern China(NSTEC)biome
Classification number :
S764
DOI:
10.3969/j.jssn.1000-2006.2011.03.005
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
In this paper, a biogeographical modelBIOME4, was used to predict potential vegetation distribution in NorthSouth transect of eastern China under climate change. Firstly, the BIOME4 was validated according to the climatevegetation relationships in China. Kappa statistics showed that the validated BIOME4 was able to capture the geographical patterns of vegetation more accurately. Kappa values of tropical evergreen forest, tropical deciduous forest, warm mixed forest, temperate deciduous forest, cool mixed forest, deciduous taiga and temperate grassland are at good and very good level.The simulation results of temperate conifer forest and cool conifer forest are at poor level. The validated BIOME4 was used to predict the distribution of biome of NorthSouth transect of eastern China under SRESA1B climate scenario produced by a regional circulation model, RegCM3. The simulation results showed obvious northward shifts of the tropical forest,warm temperate forest, cool mixed forest and taiga. In the future, the changed regions of biome distribution are pointed, i.e., coastal areas of Hainan, the junction area of the torrid and subtropical zone, most area of northern subtropical and temperate zone, most area of cool temperate and cold temperate zone. In the future, area of tropical biomes, warm mixed forest, cool mixed forest will increase 1167 6×105, 5004 8×105 and 6110 0×105 km2, respectively; The area of temperate deciduous forest, temperate grassland and taiga will decrease 2089 0×105, 2162 8×105 and 2517 0×105 km2, respectively; temperate conifer forest will disappear.

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Last Update: 2011-06-13