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基于Maxent生态位模型的松材线虫在中国的适生区预测分析(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2015年01期
Page:
6-10
Column:
专题报道
publishdate:
2015-01-30

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Prediction of potential distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China based on Maxent ecological niche model
Article ID:
1000-2006(2015)01-0006-05
Author(s):
HAN Yangyang12 WANG Yan2 XIANG Yang1 YE Jianren1*
1.Collaborative Innovation Center of Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jinangsu Province Key Laboratory for Prevention and Management of Invasive Species, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China;
2.Shanghai Forestry Station, Shanghai 200072,China
Keywords:
Bursaphelenchus xylophilus Maxent ecological niche model potential geographic distribution geographic information system ArcGIS
Classification number :
S763.18
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2015.01.002
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
In order to understand the possible spread areas and harmful degree of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in China, a prediction of potential geographical distribution of B. xylophilus was conducted by using the maximum entropy(Maxent)ecological niche models and combining with geographic information system(ArcGis). The results showed that the potential distribution of B. xylophilus mainly concentrated in eastern China and southern China, and the southern parts of north China and north-east China and southwest China were middle or low suitable areas. The other parts of China were unsuitable areas. In suitable distribution areas, as long as pine host trees appeared, other environment condition would satisfied the occurance of the disease. Results of ROC(receiver operating characteristic curve)evaluation showed that training data of predicted suitable distribution areas by Maxent ecological niche models and AUC(areas under curve)of testing data were 0.987 and 0.986, respectively. The precision of prediction was extremely high. A jackknife test in Maxent showed that temperature was the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of this pest species.

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Last Update: 2015-01-31