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基于地理加权泊松模型的河南省火灾风险模拟(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2015年05期
Page:
93-98
Column:
研究论文
publishdate:
2015-10-20

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Fire danger modeling with Geographically Weighted Poisson Model in Henan Province
Article ID:
1000-2006(2015)05-0093-06
Author(s):
WANG Zhou JIN Wanzhou
Northwest Institute of Forest Inventory, Planning and Design, SFA, Xi'an 710048,China
Keywords:
fire danger modeling Geographically Weighted Poisson Model(GWPM) local fit Henan Province
Classification number :
X43
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2015.05.015
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
Fire danger modeling is one of the most important ways to explore the mechanism of fire occurrence and to discover the main fire-influencing factors. Geographically Weighted Poisson Model(GWPM)can account for local variation of the relationships between fire hazards and fire-influencing factors was applied to model monthly fire frequency cell by cell for fire season of Henan province(i.e. September and October). Several fire-influencing factors involving slope, accessibility, solar radiation, land surface temperature and vegetation conditions were employed and potential multicollinearity among the independent variables was excluded in modeling. The reliability and discrimination capacity of the developed GWPM fire models were respectively evaluated by using the inner testing subset and the independent validation subset. The results indicate that:① the fitting accuracy and the model's performance are greatly improved by GWPM compared to Generalized Poisson Model(GPM). ② Influences of factors present significant spatial variability, accounting for slope, solar radiation, land surface temperature and vegetation conditions on fire hazards but the influences of factors accounting for accessibility of human activity on fire hazards exhibit insignificant spatial variability. In addition, those areas which were located far away from main roads and near villages are fire-prone zones. The estimated coefficients maps have important implications for fire prevention management.

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Last Update: 2015-10-15