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李痘病毒在中国的入侵风险评估(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2016年06期
Page:
187-192
Column:
研究简报
publishdate:
2016-11-30

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Invasion risk analysis of Plum pox virus to China
Article ID:
1000-2006(2016)06-0187-06
Author(s):
LIN Sixi DING Xiaolei YE Jianren* ZHAO Qi
Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory for Prevention and Management of Invasive Species, Nanjing 210037,China
Keywords:
Plum pox virus(PPV) potential distribution integrated multi index evaluation system invasion risk analysis
Classification number :
S763
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2016.06.029
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
To evaluate the invasion risk and potential consequences brought by the Plum pox virus, we predicted the potential distribution of Plum pox virus in China using the maximum entropy(Maxent)ecological niche models combined with geographic information system(ArcGIS)based on its current distribution and the environment variables of target region, which divided the territory into four parts: high suitable region, medium suitable region. From 5 aspects of the possibility of incoming, colonization, diffusion, the victim host economic importance and difficulty of risk management, including 18 indicators, this article has carried the virus invasion risk analysis on the qualitative and quantitative level with the standard of integrated multi index evaluation system. The results showed that the potential distribution of Plum pox virus mainly located in the eastern and southern China. The geographical coordinates range were among the area of 101.93°-122.75°E, 19.60°-40.76°N, accounted for 25%-50% area of China, the suitable region is broader. The invasion risk index value(R)of Plum pox virus in China was 2.49 which belonged to high risk levels of harmful organisms. Since there is no national record of PPV in China, strict quarantine measures including both serological and molecular biological detection was absolutely necessary. And more than two years isolated planting were also required to prevent the spreading to China.

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Last Update: 2016-11-20