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基于CAMarkov模型的喀斯特地区县域生态系统服务价值动态模拟(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2017年05期
Page:
49-56
Column:
研究论文
publishdate:
2017-09-30

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Dynamic simulation of future ecosystem service value in Puding County, Guizhou Province based on CA-Markov model
Article ID:
1000-2006(2017)05-0049-08
Author(s):
LYU Guoping1 LIAO Chengrui1 XU Yannan1* ZHANG Ting1 LI Haidong2*
1. Centre of Co-Innovation for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China; 2.Nanjing Institute of Environment Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Nanjing 210042,China
Keywords:
Keywords:ecosystem service value CA-Markov model land use landscape pattern driving mechanism Karst landform area Puding County of Guizhou Province
Classification number :
S757; F205
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201612022
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
【Objective】Exploring the variations in land use and ecosystem service value in a typical Karst land area in Puding County plays an important role in the implementation of a “grain-for-green” restoration project.【Method】We determined land use/land cover and landscape patterns based on the classification results of a CART decision tree using “3S” technology. The ecological system services values for the period of 1999 to 2015 were estimated based on the ecological principles. Combined with a CA-Markov model, the land use pattern and ecological system services value of 2021 was predicted. 【Result】The ecological system services value steadily increased from 1999 to 2015. The forest, field and water landscape areas were the largest part of the ecological system services, collectively providing more than 90% of the total ecological system services value. Water conservation, soil formation and protection, and waste disposal were almost 50% of the total contribution to total land-use ecosystem service values.【Conclusion】The leading factor in the changes in ecological system service value in the study area was the grain-for-green project. Results of the forecast showed that the total ecological system services value of Puding County in 2021 would be 9.58 billion Yuan, a decrease of 0.3 billion Yuan compared to 2015.

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