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华北落叶松人工林直径分布预测模型构建(PDF)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2020年02期
Page:
117-124
Column:
研究论文
publishdate:
2020-03-31

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Prediction model construction of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation
Article ID:
1000-2006(2020)02-0117-08
Author(s):
ZHOU Zeyu1YANG Raohua2ZHANG Yuzhen1HUANG Xuanrui1ZHANG Zhidong1WANG Dongzhi1* LI Dayong2
(1. College of Forestry Agricultural University of Hebei, Forest Resources Innovation and Protection Laboratory of Hebei, Baoding 071000, China; 2. Mulan Weichang State-owned Forest Farm Administration Bureau of Hebei Province, Chengde 068450, China)
Keywords:
Larix principis-rupprechtii dynamic diameter distribution model Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE) linear mixed-effect model
Classification number :
S758.5+7
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201812012.
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
【Objective】 Based on different diameter distribution prediction models(Weibull distribution, Gamma distribution, Lognormal distribution), linear mixed-effects model including the main stand factors are constructed to help to reflect the response of diameter distribution to stand dynamics. 【Method】 Using the survey data of typical Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation, the model parameters were estimated by using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE), and the adaptability of the established model was evaluated via K-S(Kolmogorov-Smirnov)test, C-V(Cramer-von Mises)test, and A-D(Anderson-Darling)test. Based on the optimal model, a linear mixed-effects model of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation was constructed. 【Result】 The optimal model for the diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation was the 3-parameter Weibull distribution. Based on the optimal model, a linear mixed-effect model with inputs of stand dominant height, stand basal area and logarithmic density was constructed and the mixed-effect model had the best fitting result as the variance-covariance structure of random-effect and the error term variance-covariance structure was both Diagonal matrix UN(1). The R2 of linear mixed-effect model of Weibull distribution of parameter a, b, and c were estimated at 0.895, 0.888, and 0.801 respectively. The MSE were at 5.365, 1.724, 1.151 and RMSE were at 2.316, 1.313, 1.073. the fitting result was relatively accurate. 【Conclusion】 Linear mixed-effects model has the capability to accurately predict stand diameter distribution. The model can provide theoretical basis and technical parameters for accurately predicting the diameter distributions of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation

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Last Update: 2019-03-25