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未来气候变化对我国毛红椿适生区分布格局的影响预测(PDF/HTML)

《南京林业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1000-2006/CN:32-1161/S]

Issue:
2020年3期
Page:
163-170
Column:
研究论文
publishdate:
2020-06-05

Article Info:/Info

Title:
Predicting the impact of future climate change on the distribution patterns of Toona ciliata var. pubescens in China
Article ID:
1000-2006(2020)03-0163-08
Author(s):
HUANG Honglan13 ZHONG Wogu2 YI Deping1 CAI Junhuo3 ZHANG Lu3
(1. Forestry Institute, Jiangxi Environmental Engineering Vocational College, Ganzhou 341000, China ; 2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences / Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China ; 3. 2011 Collaborative Innovation Center of Jiangxi Typical Trees Cultivation and Utilization, College of Forestry,Jiangxi Agricultural University, Nanchang 330045, China )
Keywords:
climate change climatic factor geographical distribution suitable distribution area MaxEnt model var.
Classification number :
S718
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201812037
Document Code:
A
Abstract:
Objective Toona ciliata var. pubescens, a deciduous broad-leaved plant, is a secondary endangered species under state protection in China. Understanding the impact of future climate change on the potential distribution patterns of T. ciliata var. pubescens in China and assessing the interaction between its habitat and environmental factors would contribute to its conservation and ecological restoration. Method The MaxEnt model was applied to the distribution data obtained from 53 locations spread across the Jiangxi, Yunnan, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hunan, Guangxi, Guizhou and Sichuan Provinces to estimate habitat suitability at present and in the future (by 2040s and 2060s) under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The output data were processed using MapGIS 10.0 software, including identification, geometric correction and vectorization processing, and then used to analyze the response of T. ciliata var. pubescens to future climate change. Result The simulation results of the MaxEnt model were verified to be ideal. The current distribution pattern of T. ciliata var. pubescens was similar to a narrow island with its distinctive east-west features. This pattern was determined by the mean precipitation in the hottest quarter and temperature in a given year; the minimum air temperature of the coldest month may be the main limiting climatic factor for its distribution. The results illustrated that the suitable T. ciliata var. pubescens habitats will make a large-scale recession toward the east of central China under future climate change, mainly due to a decrease in rainfall and an increase in the minimum air temperature in winter. Under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the reduction rates in its habitable areas would vary from 31.90% to 63.73 %, and its geographic center would probably migrate into Yunnan Province. The distribution patterns in more suitable areas will become more concentrated and might migrate to the high-altitude areas of the Yunnan, Sichuan and Guizhou Provinces. Conclusion In brief, future climate change is likely to have negative effects on the suitability, distribution range, distribution scale, and patchy continuous distribution pattern of T. ciliata var. pubescens, and its distribution to higher suitability areas might be more concentrated. These combined effects will increase the degree of its future endangerment. We recommend strengthening the protection measures for T. ciliata var. pubescens not only in the currently protected areas but also in the sensitive areas of climate change, such as Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and other Provinces. Further research should be focused on the relationship between the population fluctuation of T. ciliata var. pubescens and climate change as well as its adaptation to a particular ecological niche.

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Last Update: 2020-06-11