CHEN Yuheng,L Yiwei,YIN Xiaojie*.Predicting habitat suitability of 12 coniferous forest tree species in southwest China based on climate change[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University(Natural Science Edition),2019,43(06):113-120.





Predicting habitat suitability of 12 coniferous forest tree species in southwest China based on climate change
(1.西南林业大学林学院,云南 昆明 650224; 2.东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150040)
CHEN Yuheng1 LÜ Yiwei2 YIN Xiaojie1*
(1. College of Forestry, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China; 2. School of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China)
针叶树 适宜分布区 气候变化 MaxEnt模型 西南地区
coniferous tree ecological suitable area climate change MaxEnt model southwest China
Q948.5; S718
【目的】随气候变化加剧,未来西南地区针叶林分布存在诸多不确定性,进行未来气候下西南地区常见针叶树种适宜分布区研究,为该地区森林生态安全评估提供参考。【方法】基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模拟未来气候情景下西南地区常见的12种针叶树的气候适宜分布区。【结果】MaxEnt模型能够很好地模拟西南地区12个树种的潜在分布,AUC值均达0.9以上; 2070年MPI-ESM-LR模式RCP4.5情景下西南地区12种常见针叶树种气候适宜区面积分布变化显著,包括冷杉、三尖杉、杉木、干香柏、柏木、水杉、云南松、红豆杉和福建柏在内的9个树种气候适宜区与气候最适区面积增加11.1%~412.8%; 银杉和油麦吊云杉的气候适宜区面积分别增加6.0%和32.8%,但气候最适区面积减少了0.8%和3.5%; 云南油杉未来气候适宜区和气候最适区的面积则减少24.0%和29.1%。【结论】西南地区针叶林中广布树种的气候适宜区面积会得益于气候变化而扩大,但云南油杉和油麦吊云杉等一些西南特有乡土树种的气候适宜区面积则会因为气候变化而缩小,因此对特有乡土树种的保护应给予重视。
【Objective】Coniferous forests in southwest China are important biodiversity hotspots, but they are under significant threat from ongoing climatic changes. In this study we explored the predicted changes in habitat suitability for 12 key tree species.【Method】We used MaxEnt models to predict habitat suitability for 12 coniferous tree species that are currently present in southwest China. 【Result】The AUC values(receiver operating characteristics, area under curve)of all 12 species were more than 0.9, suggesting our results are highly supported. We found that the climatically suitable area of all species under representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5 in 2070 will increase greatly. For 9 of the 12 species(Abies fabri, Cephalotaxus fortunei, Cunninghamia lanceolata, Cupressus duclouxiana, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, Pinus yunnanensis, Fokienia hodginsii, Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis and Cupressus funebris), both the total climatically suitable area and the area of optimal climate will increase 11.1% and 412.8% than the current areal, respectively. For Picea brachytyla and Cathaya argyrophylla, the total climatically suitable area will increase by 6.0% and 32.8%, respectively, but the area of optimal conditions will decrease( P. brachytyla by -0.8%; C. argyrophylla by -3.5%). However, for Keteleeria evelyniana, both the total climatically suitable area and the area of optimal climate area will respectively decrease by 24.0% and 29.1%.【Conclusion】Overall, our models show that climate change is expected to increase the range of various widely distributed coniferous tree species. However, for specialized coniferous species like Picea brachytyla and Keteleeria evelyniana, there will be a range decrease as conditions change. We suggest that more attention be paid to specialized forest conifer species, particularly in relation to expected climatic changes.


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收稿日期:2018-08-24 修回日期:2019-09-08 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(31700467); 云南省高校优势特色重点学科(生态学)建设项目。 第一作者:陈禹衡(edenchen1226@outlook.com)。*通信作者:殷晓洁(xjyinanne@163.com),讲师,ORCID(0000-0003-1421-0112)。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-11-30