选择灌河口区域为研究对象，结合研究区域特定的自然、生态及经济发展状况，从资源承载力、社会影响力、环境承载力及生态弹性力4个方面，构建了研究区域生态承载力评价指标体系。运用主成分分析法和模糊综合评价法对研究区域2002—2007年生态承载力的变化状况进行了分析，探讨了生态承载力变化的主要原因。发现研究区域生态承载力从2002年至2005年间呈快速下降阶段，2005年至2007年呈上升趋势，总体略有下降。分析表明，这与灌河口区域的实际情况基本相符，建立的生态承载力评价指标体系适用于生态环境比较敏感、经济相对落后的区域，主成分分析法和模糊综合评价法可应用于生态承载力的评价。
Abstract
In this paper, irrigation estuary region was studied, considering the natural, ecological and economical development in the chosen region, the indicators for evaluating regional ECC were put forward, which included resources carrying capacity, social influence, environmental carrying capacity and ecosystem flexibility. Using principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the changes of ECC for irrigation estuary Regional from 2002 to 2007 were analyzed, therefore the main reason which caused the changes of the ECC was discussed. The ECC rapidly declined from 2002 to 2005 while it increased from 2005 to 2007, and the overall value was slightly downward. The results of this paper basically was in line with the actual situation of irrigation estuary region. Evaluation index system of ECC which was established apply to the regional of ecological environment slightly sensitive and economy relatively backward. Principal component analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation can be applied to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity.
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基金
收稿日期：2009-01-06修回日期：2009-10-30基金项目：国家环保部科技专项(T200802)；江苏省发展改革委员会项目作者简介：张瑞斌(1985—)，硕士生。*赵言文(通信作者)，教授。Email: ywzhao@njau.edu.cn。引文格式：张瑞斌,王三洲,赵言文,等. 基于SPSS的灌河口区域生态承载力评价[J]. 南京林业大学学报:自然科学版,2010,34(1):64-68.
