基于我国南方集体林区杉木、马尾松成本收益的基础数据,运用生长方程及碳贮量生物量转变和扩展因子法分别对杉木、马尾松的碳贮量进行估算,通过构建修正后的Hartman模型,对比了考虑和不考虑碳汇收益的林地期望值,并模拟分析了贴现率、投入品价格和产出品价格变动对考虑碳汇收益的林地期望值的敏感性。研究结果表明:(1)杉木轮伐期约为马尾松的一半,但单一轮伐期内净收益却高于马尾松;(2)两树种林地期望值均呈现倒“U”形,两者差距先增大后减小;(3)贴现率与林地期望值呈负相关,同一价格因子对不同树种的敏感性存在差异。
Abstract
Based on the costs and benefits data of Chinese fir and Masson pine, this study used the growth equation and carbon storage in biomass transformation and expansion factor method to estimate carbon storage of Chinese fir and Masson pine respectively in southern collective forests region of China. Then, we compared the land expectation value with and without carbon benefits and analyzed the sensitivity of discount rate, input and output prices with developing Hartman model. The results showed that:(1)The rotation of Chinese fir was a half of the rotation of Masson pine, but Chinese fir had higher net profit than Masson pine in a single rotation.(2)The land expectation value of both species represented an inverse “U” shape, but the difference between Chinese fir and Masson pine increased firstly and then decreased.(3)The discount rate was negatively related to land expected value, there appeared a difference of sensitivity of two species at the same price factors.
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基金
收稿日期:2012-11-01 修回日期:2013-03-05
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71073148); 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(71203198); 浙江农林大学研究生科研创新基金项目(3122013240152)
第一作者:王小玲,硕士生。*通信作者:沈月琴,教授。E-mail: shenyueqin-zj@163.com。
引文格式:王小玲,沈月琴,朱臻. 考虑碳汇收益的林地期望值最大化及其敏感性分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报:自然科学版,2013,37(4):143-148.
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