长三角小流域AnnAGNPS模型参数敏感性及适用性评价

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202005003

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 183-192.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202005003

长三角小流域AnnAGNPS模型参数敏感性及适用性评价

张水锋¹^,²(), 张金池¹^,^*(), 庄家尧¹, 王新猛², 张思玉²

1.南京林业大学,南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏省水土保持与生态修复重点实验室,南京林业大学林学院,江苏南京 210037
2.南京森林警察学院信息技术学院,江苏南京 210023

收稿日期:2020-05-13 修回日期:2020-08-24 出版日期:2021-05-30 发布日期:2021-05-31
通讯作者: 张金池
基金资助:
江苏省农业科技自主创新资金项目(CX(17)1004);国家林业公益性行业科研专项项目(201504406);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD);国家自然科学基金面上项目(31872705)

Parameters sensitivity and applicability evaluations of AnnAGNPS model in a small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta

ZHANG Shuifeng¹^,²(), ZHANG Jinchi¹^,^*(), ZHUANG Jiayao¹, WANG Xinmeng², ZHANG Siyu²

1. Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration,Co-Innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,College of Forestry,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China
2. College of Information Technology,Nanjing Forest Police College,Nanjing 210023,China

Received:2020-05-13 Revised:2020-08-24 Online:2021-05-30 Published:2021-05-31
Contact: ZHANG Jinchi

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】研究年度农业非点源污染模型(Annualized agricultural non-point source pollutant loading model,AnnAGNPS)在沛桥河小流域的参数敏感性与适用性,为长三角地区的流域综合管理工作提供数据支撑和科学依据。【方法】以长江中下游水阳江水系沛桥河小流域为研究区,采用差分灵敏度分析(differential sensitivity analysis,DSA)方法进行参数敏感性分析,通过相关系数(R²)、效率系数(E)以及相对误差(E_R)来综合评价模型的适用性。【结果】对研究区径流、总氮与总磷输出模拟最敏感的参数是径流曲线数(CN),对泥沙输出模拟敏感性程度最高的参数是CN、土壤可蚀性因子(K)、水土保持因子(P)与作物管理因子(C),且均呈正相关影响特征。验证期(2015—2018年)汛期与非汛期径流、泥沙、总氮与总磷的相关系数(R²)、效率系数(E)均大于0.80,相对误差(E_R)的绝对值均小于12%;模型对径流与泥沙汛期的模拟精度均高于非汛期,而对总氮与总磷负荷非汛期的模拟精度略高于汛期。【结论】校准后的AnnAGNPS模型应用于沛桥河小流域的模拟效果较好,可用于辅助长三角低山丘陵区农业小流域非点源污染与水土流失管理决策。

关键词: 长三角农业小流域, 农业非点源污染模型(AnnAGNPS), 参数敏感性, 适用性评价, 沛桥河小流域

Abstract:

【Objective】 The sensitivity and applicability of the agricultural non-point source pollution model AnnAGNPS to the Peiqiao River watershed were studied to provide data supports and a scientific basis for the comprehensive watershed management in the Yangtze River Delta. 【Method】 The study area is Peiqiao River watershed of Shuiyang River system in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A differential sensitivity analysis (DSA) method was used for a parameter sensitivity analysis, and the applicability of the model was comprehensively evaluated using correlation coefficient (R²), efficiency coefficient (E) and relative error (E_R). 【Result】 The parameter with the highest degree of output sensitivity to runoff, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and sediment in the studied area was the curve number (CN). Soil erosion factor (K), soil and water conservation factor (P), and crop management factor (C), all had positive correlations and effects. The R² and E of runoff, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus in the flood season and non-flood season from 2015 to 2018 were all greater than 0.80, and the absolute value of E_R was less than 12%. The simulation accuracy of runoff and sediment in the flood season was higher than that in the non-flood season, while the simulation accuracy of total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the non-flood season was slightly higher than that in the flood season. 【Conclusion】The calibrated AnnAGNPS model has a good simulation effect and reliable results in the Peiqiao River watershed and could be used to assist decision-makings on non-point source pollution and soil erosion management in a small agricultural watershed of the hill region of the Yangtze River Delta.

Key words: agricultural small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta, agricultural non-point source pollution model (AnnAGNPS), parameters sensitivity, applicability evaluation, Peiqiao River watershed

中图分类号:

S157

张水锋,张金池,庄家尧,等. 长三角小流域AnnAGNPS模型参数敏感性及适用性评价[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 45(3): 183-192.

ZHANG Shuifeng, ZHANG Jinchi, ZHUANG Jiayao, WANG Xinmeng, ZHANG Siyu. Parameters sensitivity and applicability evaluations of AnnAGNPS model in a small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 45(3): 183-192.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202005003.

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研究区 study area	面积/ km² area	临界源区面积/hm² CSA	最小源区沟道长度/m MSCL	水文响应单元数量 cells number	河段数量 reaches number	文献 references
中田河流域	47.85	6	50	897	377	[22]
山美水库流域	1 023.00	50	150	2 448	990	[23]
桃溪子流域	394.00	50	150	2 664	1 105	[23]
灞河流域	2 581.00	100	100	1 965	791	[24]
罗李村流域	743.80	100	70	1 030	420	[25]
岔口小流域	131.91	5	100	2 722	1 097	[33]
Red Rock Creek watershed 红石溪流域(美国)	136.00	100	130	169	-	[38]
Little River watershed 小河流域(美国)	333.00	50	100	841	342	[39]

参数 parameter	取值范围 range	径流深 (等级) runoff depth (rank)	泥沙 (等级) sediment (rank)	总氮 (等级) total nitrogen (rank)	总磷 (等级) total phosphorus (rank)
径流曲线数 runoff curve number	[30,100]	1.286 (Ⅳ)	0.386 (Ⅲ)	1.663 (Ⅳ)	1.144 (Ⅳ)
土壤可蚀性因子 K factor	[0.0,0.131 7]	0 (Ⅰ)	0.808 (Ⅲ)	0.165 (Ⅱ)	0.107 (Ⅱ)
田间持水量 field capacity	[凋萎点, 1.0]	-0.325 (Ⅲ)	-0.031 (Ⅰ)	0.193 (Ⅱ)	0.473 (Ⅲ)
土壤饱和导水率 saturated conductivity	[0.0, 254 000.0]	-0.003 (Ⅰ)	0 (Ⅰ)	0.012 (Ⅰ)	0.026 (Ⅰ)
凋萎点 wilting point	[0.0,1.0]	0.201 (Ⅲ)	0.019 (Ⅰ)	-0.163 (Ⅱ)	-0.064 (Ⅱ)
土壤有机质含量 organic matter ratio	[0.0,1.0]	0 (Ⅰ)	0 (Ⅰ)	0.812 (Ⅲ)	0.633 (Ⅲ)
作物冠层覆盖度 canopy cover	[0.0,1.0]	0.230 (Ⅲ)	0.013 (Ⅰ)	-0.012 (Ⅰ)	0.030 (Ⅰ)
肥料施用量 application rate	[0.0, 56 000.0]	0 (Ⅰ)	0 (Ⅰ)	0.181 (Ⅱ)	0.4 (Ⅲ)
作物管理因子 constant usle C-factor	[0.0,1.0]	0 (Ⅰ)	0.808 (Ⅲ)	0.165 (Ⅱ)	0.107 (Ⅱ)
水土保持因子 constant usle P-factor	[0.0,1.0]	0 (Ⅰ)	0.790 (Ⅲ)	0.154 (Ⅱ)	0.099 (Ⅱ)

年份 year	β₁=0.9	β₂=0.92	β₃=0.935	β₄=0.95
2008	0.412	0.400	0.379	0.361
2009	0.486	0.422	0.409	0.385
2010	0.427	0.393	0.372	0.344
2011	0.438	0.393	0.386	0.352
2012	0.425	0.401	0.394	0.373
2013	0.446	0.427	0.408	0.380
2014	0.465	0.417	0.405	0.392
2015	0.401	0.395	0.387	0.350
2016	0.479	0.458	0.422	0.397
2017	0.413	0.396	0.382	0.364
2018	0.383	0.371	0.359	0.337
2008—2018	0.434	0.407	0.391	0.367

项目 item	时间段 time zone	模拟时期 simulation period	R²	E	E_R/%
径流 ruoff	汛期flood season	率定期calibration period	0.846	0.813	-11.581
	汛期flood season	验证期validation period	0.873	0.842	-11.368
	非汛期non-flood season	率定期calibration period	0.825	0.765	-12.174
	非汛期non-flood season	验证期validation period	0.859	0.823	-11.632
泥沙 sediment	汛期flood season	率定期calibration period	0.895	0.842	10.072
	汛期flood season	验证期validation period	0.903	0.856	9.124
	非汛期non-flood season	率定期calibration period	0.876	0.839	10.113
	非汛期non-flood season	验证期validation period	0.893	0.847	9.936
总氮 total nitragen	汛期flood season	率定期calibration period	0.824	0.801	-9.922
	汛期flood season	验证期validation period	0.851	0.817	-7.176
	非汛期non-flood season	率定期calibration period	0.873	0.825	-7.368
	非汛期non-flood season	验证期validation period	0.902	0.863	-6.584
总磷 total phosphorus	汛期flood season	率定期calibration period	0.817	0.785	-10.120
	汛期flood season	验证期validation period	0.835	0.801	-9.543
	非汛期non-flood season	率定期calibration period	0.810	0.775	-7.915
	非汛期non-flood season	验证期validation period	0.857	0.839	-6.437

长三角小流域AnnAGNPS模型参数敏感性及适用性评价

Parameters sensitivity and applicability evaluations of AnnAGNPS model in a small watershed of the Yangtze River Delta

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