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长江流域森林NPP模拟及其对气候变化的响应
张凤英, 张增信, 田佳西, 黄日超, 孔蕊, 朱斌, 朱敏, 王益明, 陈喜
南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1) : 175-181.
PDF(2864 KB)
PDF(2864 KB)
长江流域森林NPP模拟及其对气候变化的响应
Forest NPP simulation in the Yangtze River Basin and its response to climate change
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【目的】利用LPJ模型(Lund-Potsdam-Jena model)估算长江流域森林净初级生产力(net primary productivity, NPP),研究长江流域森林NPP时空动态变化及其与气候因素的关系,为长江流域及其他地区的植被监测与生态建设提供依据。【方法】基于LPJ模型模拟的NPP数据及气象资料,对长江流域1982—2013年森林NPP的空间分布和时空动态变化趋势进行分析,采用线性回归分析法分别以时间为自变量和NPP为因变量进行趋势检验,利用相关性分析法分析长江流域森林NPP与气象因子之间的关系。【结果】①长江流域1982—2013年森林年均NPP值为530.41 g/(m2·a),最高值出现在2002年,森林NPP值为578.55 g/(m2·a);最低值出现在1989年,森林NPP值为491.24 g/(m2·a)。②长江流域森林NPP的空间分布由东南沿海向西北逐渐减小,长江中下游森林NPP高于长江上游,森林NPP空间分布格局与水热条件分布格局相一致,长江流域东南部水热条件良好,能够满足植被生长和发展的需要,植被生产力比较高;西北部由于水热条件比较差,不利于植被生长,生产力低下。③长江流域大部分地区森林NPP与气温和降水为正相关关系,森林NPP与气温呈显著正相关,气温与森林NPP之间的相关性强于降水与森林NPP之间的相关性。【结论】长江流域森林NPP呈自东南向西北减少的趋势,且随时间呈波动上升趋势;气候对森林NPP具有显著影响,气温是影响森林NPP的主导因素。
【Objective】The Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to evaluate the forest net primary productivity (NPP) in the Yangtze River Basin and to study the temporal and spatial dynamic changes in the forest NPP and its relationship with climate factors. This can provide a reference for vegetation monitoring and ecological reconstruction in the Yangtze River Basin and other areas. 【Method】The NPP simulated by the LPJ model and meteorological data were used to evaluate the spatial distribution and spatio-temporal variation trend of the forest NPP in the Yangtze River Basin from 1982 to 2013. The linear regression analysis method was used to test the trend, with time as the independent variable and the vegetation variable (i.e., NPP in our study) as the dependent variable. The correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the forest NPP and meteorological factors in the Yangtze River Basin. 【Result】①The annual average forest NPP value in the Yangtze River Basin from 1982 to 2013 was 530.41 g/(m2·a), and the highest forest NPP value was 578.55 g/(m2·a) in 2002. The lowest forest NPP occurred in 1989, with a value of 491.24 g/(m2·a). ②The spatial distribution of the forest NPP in the Yangtze River Basin decreased gradually from the southeast coast to the northwest, and the forest NPP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze was higher than that in the upper Yangtze reaches. The spatial distribution pattern of the forest NPP was consistent with the distribution pattern of water and heat conditions. The water and heat conditions in the southeast of the Yangtze River Basin could meet the needs of vegetation growth and development, and the vegetation productivity was relatively high. The poor water and heat conditions in the northwest were not conducive to vegetation growth, which showed low productivity.③The forest NPP was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation in most areas of the Yangtze River Basin, and it showed a significant positive correlation with temperature. Moreover, the correlations between the forest NPP and temperature were higher than those of the forest NPP and precipitation. 【Conclusion】The forest NPP in the Yangtze River Basin presented a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, and showed a rising trend of fluctuation with time. Climate had a significant influence on forest NPP, and temperature was the leading factor affecting the forest NPP.
净初级生产力(NPP) / LPJ模型 / 森林 / 气候变化 / 长江流域
net primary productivity (NPP) / Lund-Potsdam-Jena model(LPJ model) / forests / climate change / Yangtze River Basin
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李亮, 何晓军, 胡理乐, 等. 1958—2008年太白山太白红杉林碳循环模拟[J]. 生态学报, 2013,33(9):2845-2855.
太白红杉(Larix chinensis)林主要分布于我国秦岭太白山的林线位置,对气候变化的响应十分敏感.为了定量分析太白山太白红杉林在气候变化背景下的碳循环特征,基于模型(MTCLIM)模拟的温度和降水数据,应用植被动态过程模型(LPJ-GUESS)模拟了太白山南北坡1958-2008年太白红杉林的净初级生产力(NPP)、生物量和净生态系统碳交换量(NEE).结果表明:1)太白红杉和巴山冷杉(Abies fargesii)的NPP和生物量在太白红杉林占有优势,太白红杉的NPP和生物量均大于巴山冷杉.1958-2008年间太白红杉南北坡NPP的平均值为0.38 kgC·m-2·a-1,巴山冷杉为0.25 kgC·m-2·a-1,两者之和占整个太白红杉林NPP的86%;1958-2008年间太白红杉南北坡生物量的平均值为2.91 kgC/m2,巴山冷杉为2.02 kgC/m2,两者之和占太白红杉林生物量的94%.2)太白红杉和巴山冷杉的NPP均表现为北坡大于南坡,且南北坡均有逐年增加的趋势,北坡的增幅小于南坡,所以太白山南北坡太白红杉林的NPP差异有逐年减少的趋势.3)太白红杉生物量的年际波动较大,南北坡呈交替上升趋势,南坡的平均值(2.94 kgC/m2)大于北坡(2.89 kgC/m2).巴山冷杉生物量的年际波动相对较小,北坡生物量水平大于南坡.4)1958-2008年南北坡太白红杉林平均NEE均为-0.023 kgC·m-2·a-1,表现为碳汇.南北坡碳汇水平均呈逐年增加趋势,南坡的增加幅度(0.91 g·m-2·a-1)大于北坡(0.42 g·m-2·a-1).以气候和CO2为驱动因子对太白山太白红杉林的长期碳循环动态做了定量分析,从机理上揭示气候变化与生态系统碳循环的关系,还需要做进一步的野外观测和控制实验研究.
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基于生态过程模型——CASA模型，利用1982～1999年18年来8 km×8 km分辨率的遥感数据和匹配的温度、降水、太阳辐射资料以及植被和土壤信息，对长江流域的植被NPP及其时空分布格局进行了分析。主要结论如下：1) 18年来，长江流域年均NPP总量为0.46Pg C·a-1，占全国总量的27.22
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赵东升, 吴绍洪, 尹云鹤. 气候变化情景下中国自然植被净初级生产力分布[J]. 应用生态学报, 2011,22(4):897-904.
基于国际上较通用的Lund-Potsdam-Jena（LPJ）模型，根据中国自然环境特点对其运行机制进行调整，并重新进行了参数化，以B2情景气候数据作为主要的输入数据，以1961—1990年为基准时段，模拟了中国1991—2080自然植被净初级生产力（NPP）对气候变化的响应.结果表明：1961—1990年，中国自然植被的NPP总量为3.06 Pg C·a-1；1961—2080年，NPP总量呈波动下降趋势，且下降速度逐渐加快.在降水相对变化不大的条件下，平均温度的增加对我国植被生产力可能会产生一定的负面影响.NPP的空间分布从东南沿海向西北内陆呈逐渐递减趋势，在气候变化过程中，该格局基本没有太大变化.在东部NPP值相对较高地区，NPP值以减少为主，东北地区、华北东部和黄土高原地区的减少趋势尤为明显；在西部NPP值相对较低地区，NPP以增加趋势为主，青藏高原地区和塔里木盆地的表现尤为突出.随着气候变化的深入，东西部地区这种变化趋势的对比将越发明显.
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We applied a terrestrial net primary production (NPP) model driven by satellite remote sensing observations of vegetation properties and daily surface meteorology from a regional weather forecast model to assess NPP spatial and temporal variability for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska from 1982 to 2000. Our results show a general decadal trend of increasing NPP for the region of approximately 2.7%, with respective higher (3.4%) and lower (2.2%) rates for North America and Eurasia. NPP is both spatially and temporally dynamic for the region, driven largely by differences in productivity rates among major biomes and temporal changes in photosynthetic canopy structure and spring and summer air temperatures. Mean annual NPP for boreal forests was approximately 3 times greater than for Arctic tundra on a unit area basis and accounted for approximately 55% of total annual carbon sequestration for the region. The timing of growing season onset inferred from regional network measurements of atmospheric CO2 drawdown in spring was inversely proportional to annual NPP calculations. Our findings indicate that recent regional warming trends in spring and summer and associated advances in the growing season are stimulating net photosynthesis and annual carbon sequestration by vegetation at high latitudes, partially mitigating anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2. These results also imply that regional sequestration and storage of atmospheric CO2 is being altered, with potentially greater instability and acceleration of the carbon cycle at high latitudes.
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应用基于干物质生产理论的过程模型（Sim-CYCLE）估算了1982—2003年间长白山阔叶红松林生态系统总第一生产力（GPP）、净第一生产力（NPP）、净生态系统生产力（NEP）及其季节动态变化以及碳储量（WE）、植物碳储量（WP）和土壤碳储量（WS），并分析了这些指标在当前气候情景和碳平衡情况时的差异及其对未来气候变化情景的响应.结果表明：在当前气候情景下, 长白山阔叶红松林GPP、NPP和NEP分别为14.9、8.7和2.7 Mg C·hm-2·a-1，三者分别比实测值减少2.8 Mg C·hm-2·a-1、增加1.4 Mg C·hm-2·a-1和增加0.2 Mg C·hm-2·a-1;长白山阔叶红松林6—8月的NEP占全年总量的90%以上，其中，7月最高（1.23 Mg C·hm-2·month-1）;研究区WE、WP和WS分别为550.8、183.8和367.0Mg C·hm-2，其与实测值均具有较高的一致性.从当前气候情景下到达碳平衡前，长白山阔叶红松林碳储量均有不同程度的增加，GPP和NPP分别为17.7和7.3 Mg C·hm-2·a-1，表明研究区碳“汇”的作用随着碳储量的增加逐渐减弱;温度增加2 ℃时，不利于长白山阔叶红松林GPP、NPP和NEP的增长，CO2浓度倍增则可有利地促进三者的增长，CO2浓度倍增、温度增加2 ℃对GPP、NPP和NEP增幅的影响与单纯CO2浓度倍增的影响相似，气候变化情景对长白山阔叶红松林碳储量的影响规律与对生产力幅度的影响相同，这可能是生态系统生产力影响碳积累所致.
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Cobalt is an important micronutrient for ocean microbes as it is present in vitamin B12 and is a co-factor in various metalloenzymes that catalyze cellular processes. Moreover, when seawater availability of cobalt is compared to biological demands, cobalt emerges as being depleted in seawater, pointing to a potentially important limiting role. To properly account for the potential biological role for cobalt, there is therefore a need to understand the processes driving the biogeochemical cycling of cobalt and, in particular, the balance between external inputs and internal cycling. To do so, we developed the first cobalt model within a state-of-the-art three-dimensional global ocean biogeochemical model. Overall, our model does a good job in reproducing measurements with a correlation coefficient of >0.7 in the surface and >0.5 at depth. We find that continental margins are the dominant source of cobalt, with a crucial role played by supply under low bottom-water oxygen conditions. The basin-scale distribution of cobalt supplied from margins is facilitated by the activity of manganese-oxidizing bacteria being suppressed under low oxygen and low temperatures, which extends the residence time of cobalt. Overall, we find a residence time of 7 and 250 years in the upper 250 m and global ocean, respectively. Importantly, we find that the dominant internal resupply process switches from regeneration and recycling of particulate cobalt to dissolution of scavenged cobalt between the upper ocean and the ocean interior. Our model highlights key regions of the ocean where biological activity may be most sensitive to cobalt availability.
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Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021-2050) to 27.62% (2071-2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.
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刘瑞刚, 李娜, 苏宏新, 等. 北京山区3种暖温带森林生态系统未来碳平衡的模拟与分析[J]. 植物生态学报, 2009,33(3):516-534.
使用LPJ-GUESS植被动态模型, 在北京山区研究了未来100 a以辽东栎(Quercus liaotungensis)为优势种的落叶阔叶林、以白桦(Betula platyphylla)为主的阔叶林和油松(Pinus tabulaeformis)为优势种的针阔混交林的碳变化, 定量分析了生态系统净初级生产力(NPP)、土壤异养呼吸(Rh)、净生态系统碳交换(NEE)和碳生物量(Carbon biomass)对两种未来气候情景(SRES A2和B2)以及相应大气CO2浓度变化情景的响应特征。结果表明: 1)未来100 a两种气候情景下3种森林生态系统的NPP和Rh均增加, 并且A2情景下增加的程度更大; 2)由于3种生态系统树种组成的不同, 未来气候情景下各自NPP和Rh增加的比例不同, 导致三者NEE的变化也相异: 100 a后辽东栎林由碳汇转变为弱碳源, 白桦林仍保持为碳汇但功能减弱, 油松林成为一个更大的碳汇; 3) 3种森林生态系统的碳生物量在未来气候情景下均增大, 21世纪末与20世纪末相比: 辽东栎林在A2情景下碳生物量增加的比例为27.6%, 大于B2情景下的19.3%; 白桦林和油松林在B2情景下碳生物量增加的比例分别为34.2%和52.2%, 大于A2情景下的30.8%和28.4%。
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Statistical analysis of parameters and residuals of conceptual hydrological models has received little effort in the hydrological research, certainly by orders of magnitude less than on many other problems like development and comparison of automatic calibration methods, optimisation algorithms, etc. Much more work is required than is presently undertaken to investigate the properties of model residuals. There is a need of an easily understandable and applicable statistical analysis scheme. In this article, a procedure is presented through which two basic issues of model evaluation are accounted for. First, different techniques used for parameter analysis are discussed. Second, methodology of residual analysis is discussed and the general behaviours of residuals are examined. To illustrate the procedure, a simple water balance model was applied to the Stabbybäcken River Basin in central Sweden.
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Since the Chinese government initiated its economic reform in 1978, rapid economic development has spurred land use and land cover change (LULCC) in China, which resulted in many ecological problems such as land degradation and desertification. To address these serious ecological crises, the government launched a series of ecological restoration programs which have caused significant LULCC and a profound impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. This study used net primary productivity (NPP) as an important indicator of the arid and semi-arid ecosystem's productivity to estimate the impacts of the LULCC driven by ecological restoration programs in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2009. The modeling method was based upon the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon model and Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data and meteorological data for modeling simulation. The results demonstrated that the forest area of Xinjiang had the most net increase of 9093 km(2) in the study period, compared to other land cover types. The most dominant land cover changes during 2001-2009 were from grassland to forest and mutual transformation between grassland and desert. Total NPP of whole area increased by 252.51 Gg C during the study period. The increase of total NPP in forest was the most obvious among all vegetation types, with a net increase of 1782.88 GgCyr(-1). It can be concluded that the increase of regional NPP mainly resulted from forest expansion. During 2001-2009, the mean NPP in forest, grassland and desert had a slight decrease, whereas the cropland and crop/natural vegetation mosaic land mean NPP increased fractionally. By using the climate in 2001 to simulate the NPP of Xinjiang in 2009, we explored the influences of land use and cover changes and climate change on regional NPP. Compared to climate change, human activities produced an obvious positive effect in the increase of total NPP, especially for forest land. As a result, ecological restoration programs produced positive impacts on forest expansion and carbon sequestration in Xinjiang. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V.
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周德刚, 黄荣辉, 黄刚. 近几十年来长江上游流域气候和植被覆盖的变化[J]. 大气科学学报, 2009,32(3):377-385.
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苗茜, 黄玫, 李仁强. 长江流域植被净初级生产力对未来气候变化的响应[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010,25(8):1296-1305.
研究基于气象观测和B2气候变化情景数据,利用大气－植被相互作用模型(AVIM2)模拟了1981—2000年和2010—2050年两个时段内植被NPP的空间分布格局及其时间变化趋势并分析了其时空变化与气温和降水量的关系。研究表明1981—2000年流域内植被NPP的空间分布大致呈现自西向东、自北向南递增的趋势。未来长江流域气温将整体增加,但各地增温幅度不同。流域降水量有增有减,主要增加区域位于长江源头和上游及中游的江北地区。未来在气温增加幅度较小而降水量增加的区域,如长江源头和上游的青海、西藏、川西及云南的部分地区的植被NPP将增加。在气温增幅较大而降水量减少或者降水量增加不多的区域如长江中游和下游的广大地区植被NPP将减少。从植被类型来看,长江流域大部分森林、郁闭灌丛和农作物的NPP在B2气候变化情景下将减少,每年减少量分别在0~4.5 gC·m-2、0~2 gC·m-2和0~2.5 gC·m-2之间。高寒草甸、草地和稀疏灌丛的NPP将增加,每年增长量介于0~2 gC·m-2之间。
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Climate changes are considered to significantly impact net primary productivity (NPP). However, there are few studies on how climate changes at multiple time scales impact NPP. With MODIS NPP product and station-based observations of sunshine duration, annual average temperature and annual precipitation, impacts of climate changes at different time scales on annual NPP, have been studied with EEMD (ensemble empirical mode decomposition) method in the Karst area of northwest Guangxi, China, during 2000-2013. Moreover, with partial least squares regression (PLSR) model, the relative importance of climatic variables for annual NPP has been explored. The results show that (1) only at quasi 3-year time scale do sunshine duration and temperature have significantly positive relations with NPP. (2) Annual precipitation has no significant relation to NPP by direct comparison, but significantly positive relation at 5-year time scale, which is because 5-year time scale is not the dominant scale of precipitation; (3) the changes of NPP may be dominated by inter-annual variabilities. (4) Multiple time scales analysis will greatly improve the performance of PLSR model for estimating NPP. The variable importance in projection (VIP) scores of sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale, and precipitation at quasi 5-year time scale are greater than 0.8, indicating important for NPP during 2000-2013. However, sunshine duration and temperature at quasi 3-year time scale are much more important. Our results underscore the importance of multiple time scales analysis for revealing the relations of NPP to changing climate.
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| [18] |
The relationship between climate change and vegetation dynamics in the southwestern karst region of China has been identified by recent studies. Based on previous researches and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) GIMMS (Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) (1982–2003) and AVHRR GloPEM (Global Production Efficiency Model) NPP (Net Primary Production) (1981–2000) datasets, vegetation dynamics impacted by climate change in the southwestern karst region of China were assessed. The results show that: (1) since the early 1980s, both vegetation cover density and net primary production have insignificant ascending tendencies. However, the inter-annual variation rates of vegetation indexes have apparent spatial differentiations; (2) the correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors vary geographically; (3) as indicated by NDVI and NPP, various vegetation types have different responses to climate change, and the annual mean temperature variation has more significant impact on vegetation dynamics than the annual precipitation variation in the study area; (4) distribution laws of correlation coefficients between the inter-annual variations of vegetation indexes and the inter-annual variations of climate factors in different climate conditions are apparent. All these findings will enrich our knowledge of the natural forces which impact the stability of the karst ecosystems and provide scientific basis for the management of the karst ecosystems.
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| [19] |
Aims Terrestrial net primary production (NPP), the balance of gross primary production (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (AR), is a critical measure of carbon sequestration capacity for the Earth's land surface. The aim of this study was to understand the spatio-temporal variability of NPP associated with GPP and AR in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, from 2000 to 2009 during which the basin warmed significantly.
Methods We first derived AR and carbon-use efficiency (CUE) from the improved Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer GPP/NPP products (MOD17) and then conducted spatial analysis to quantify how NPP relates to GPP, AR and their relationship with key observed climate variables (temperature, precipitation and sunshine percentage) in the YRB during 2000–2009. Important findings The spatial pattern of NPP in the YRB was predominantly determined by GPP and further modified by AR. Higher GPP and relatively low AR made the southern Jinshajiang sub-basin the most productive area in NPP in the YRB. A large portion of the YRB experienced a warmer and drier climate trend in the growing season during 2000–2009. In the upper reaches of the basin, possessing a relatively low temperature base, increases in temperature led to greater increases in GPP than those in AR, resulting in greater increased NPP. However, in the middle and lower reaches of the basin where the base temperature is relatively high, increases in temperature led to greater increases in AR than those in GPP, leading to decreases in NPP. Overall, 86.7% of the vegetated area showed a consistent GPP and NPP trend through time with 71.3% of the vegetated area having a positive trend both in GPP and NPP, and the remaining 13.3% of vegetated areas showed an opposite trend in GPP and NPP, with positive GPP and negative NPP trajectories dominating (10.1% of vegetated area) the trend. Although climate warming generally had positive effects on vegetation growth in most areas of the basin, areas with increased NPP (74.5%) were less extensive than those with increased GPP (81.4%) due to the wider increase in AR (82.2%). During the study period, increases in AR offset 62% of the total increased GPP, leading to a substantial decline of CUE, particularly in the warmer lower altitude regions in the southeast. Our work reveals the diverse responses of NPP associated with GPP and AR as the climate warms and generally suggests that NPP in the middle and lower sub-basins in the YRB is more sensitive to future climate warming. These findings enhance our understanding of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to global warming and provide a scientific basis for managing ecosystem productivity in the YRB, China. |
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