长江流域森林NPP模拟及其对气候变化的响应

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.201907039

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 175-181.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.201907039

长江流域森林NPP模拟及其对气候变化的响应

张凤英¹(), 张增信¹^,²^,^*(), 田佳西¹, 黄日超², 孔蕊¹, 朱斌¹, 朱敏¹, 王益明², 陈喜³

1.南京林业大学生物与环境学院,南方现代林业协同创新中心,江苏南京 210037
2.河海大学水文水资源学院,水文水资源与水利工程国家重点实验室,江苏南京 210098
3.天津大学,表层地球系统科学研究院,天津 300072

收稿日期:2019-07-05 接受日期:2020-04-02 出版日期:2021-01-30 发布日期:2021-02-01
通讯作者: 张增信
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2019YFC0409004);国家自然科学基金项目(91747203,41971025)

Forest NPP simulation in the Yangtze River Basin and its response to climate change

ZHANG Fengying¹(), ZHANG Zengxin¹^,²^,^*(), TIAN Jiaxi¹, HUANG Richao², KONG Rui¹, ZHU Bin¹, ZHU Min¹, WANG Yiming², CHEN Xi³

1. Co-Innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering,College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3. Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China

Received:2019-07-05 Accepted:2020-04-02 Online:2021-01-30 Published:2021-02-01
Contact: ZHANG Zengxin

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】利用LPJ模型(Lund-Potsdam-Jena model)估算长江流域森林净初级生产力(net primary productivity, NPP),研究长江流域森林NPP时空动态变化及其与气候因素的关系,为长江流域及其他地区的植被监测与生态建设提供依据。【方法】基于LPJ模型模拟的NPP数据及气象资料,对长江流域1982—2013年森林NPP的空间分布和时空动态变化趋势进行分析,采用线性回归分析法分别以时间为自变量和NPP为因变量进行趋势检验,利用相关性分析法分析长江流域森林NPP与气象因子之间的关系。【结果】①长江流域1982—2013年森林年均NPP值为530.41 g/(m²·a),最高值出现在2002年,森林NPP值为578.55 g/(m²·a);最低值出现在1989年,森林NPP值为491.24 g/(m²·a)。②长江流域森林NPP的空间分布由东南沿海向西北逐渐减小,长江中下游森林NPP高于长江上游,森林NPP空间分布格局与水热条件分布格局相一致,长江流域东南部水热条件良好,能够满足植被生长和发展的需要,植被生产力比较高;西北部由于水热条件比较差,不利于植被生长,生产力低下。③长江流域大部分地区森林NPP与气温和降水为正相关关系,森林NPP与气温呈显著正相关,气温与森林NPP之间的相关性强于降水与森林NPP之间的相关性。【结论】长江流域森林NPP呈自东南向西北减少的趋势,且随时间呈波动上升趋势;气候对森林NPP具有显著影响,气温是影响森林NPP的主导因素。

关键词: 净初级生产力(NPP), LPJ模型, 森林, 气候变化, 长江流域

Abstract:

【Objective】The Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to evaluate the forest net primary productivity (NPP) in the Yangtze River Basin and to study the temporal and spatial dynamic changes in the forest NPP and its relationship with climate factors. This can provide a reference for vegetation monitoring and ecological reconstruction in the Yangtze River Basin and other areas. 【Method】The NPP simulated by the LPJ model and meteorological data were used to evaluate the spatial distribution and spatio-temporal variation trend of the forest NPP in the Yangtze River Basin from 1982 to 2013. The linear regression analysis method was used to test the trend, with time as the independent variable and the vegetation variable (i.e., NPP in our study) as the dependent variable. The correlation analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the forest NPP and meteorological factors in the Yangtze River Basin. 【Result】①The annual average forest NPP value in the Yangtze River Basin from 1982 to 2013 was 530.41 g/(m²·a), and the highest forest NPP value was 578.55 g/(m²·a) in 2002. The lowest forest NPP occurred in 1989, with a value of 491.24 g/(m²·a). ②The spatial distribution of the forest NPP in the Yangtze River Basin decreased gradually from the southeast coast to the northwest, and the forest NPP in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze was higher than that in the upper Yangtze reaches. The spatial distribution pattern of the forest NPP was consistent with the distribution pattern of water and heat conditions. The water and heat conditions in the southeast of the Yangtze River Basin could meet the needs of vegetation growth and development, and the vegetation productivity was relatively high. The poor water and heat conditions in the northwest were not conducive to vegetation growth, which showed low productivity.③The forest NPP was positively correlated with temperature and precipitation in most areas of the Yangtze River Basin, and it showed a significant positive correlation with temperature. Moreover, the correlations between the forest NPP and temperature were higher than those of the forest NPP and precipitation. 【Conclusion】The forest NPP in the Yangtze River Basin presented a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, and showed a rising trend of fluctuation with time. Climate had a significant influence on forest NPP, and temperature was the leading factor affecting the forest NPP.

Key words: net primary productivity (NPP), Lund-Potsdam-Jena model(LPJ model), forests, climate change, Yangtze River Basin

中图分类号:

S718

张凤英,张增信,田佳西,等. 长江流域森林NPP模拟及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 45(1): 175-181.

ZHANG Fengying, ZHANG Zengxin, TIAN Jiaxi, HUANG Richao, KONG Rui, ZHU Bin, ZHU Min, WANG Yiming, CHEN Xi. Forest NPP simulation in the Yangtze River Basin and its response to climate change[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2021, 45(1): 175-181.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.201907039.

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测算方法 method	时间段 period	常绿针叶林 evergreen needle leaved forest	落叶阔叶林 deciduous broad leaved forest	常绿阔叶林 evergreen broad leaved forest	混交林 mixed forest	灌丛 shrubs
LPJ	1982—2013	548.01	542.86	549.09	538.75	532.47
MODIS^[14]	2000—2009	633±199.4	543±208.3	823±324.2	631±191.2	489±271.8
CASA^[2]	1982—1999	295.46	268.65	365.01	—	286.64
实测值 observation	1989—1993	180~1 670	180~830	350~1 580	410~890	—

长江流域森林NPP模拟及其对气候变化的响应

Forest NPP simulation in the Yangtze River Basin and its response to climate change

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