【目的】探究风险规避、社会网络对农地转出契约期限的影响,以此了解农户地转出契约期限决策以及促成更多的农地长期流转。【方法】提出研究假设并利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2015数据进行实证检验,实证研究中利用Logit模型进行基准回归, 并采用Probit模型、OLS模型和异质性检验等方法进行稳健性检验。【结果】风险规避变量对农地长期转出契约期限的影响系数为负且在0.1的水平上显著;社交投资总额的估计系数为正但不显著;风险规避与社交投资总额交互项的估计系数为正且在0.1的水平上显著。风险规避对农户长期性农地流转契约选择具有负面作用;社会网络在长期性农地流转契约选择中的直接作用不显著;社会网络起调节作用,可缓解风险规避对农户长期性农地流转契约选择的负面影响。【结论】提高风险规避型农户选择长期性农地转出契约的意愿,需要降低农户在长期性农地流转中所面临的各类风险,并且要注重构建与维持农户的有效社会网络。

【Objective】This study explores the impacts of risk aversion and social networks on the contract period of farmland transfer, so as to promote the long-term transfer of farmland. 【Method】CHFS 2015 data of China Household Financial Survey were used for the empirical testing of the research hypothesis. A Logit model is used for a benchmark regression, and a probit model, OLS model and heterogeneity test are used for robustness tests. 【Result】The coefficients of influence of risk aversion variables on the long-term transfer contract of farmland are negative and significant at the level of 0.1. The estimated coefficients of the total social investment are positive but not significant. The estimated coefficients of the interaction item between the risk aversion and the total social investment are positive and significant at the level of 0.1. The risk aversion has a negative effect on farmers’ long-term land transfer contract selection. The direct role of social networks in the selection of such contracts is not significant. Social networks play a regulatory role, which can mitigate the negative impacts of risk avoidance on the aforementioned contract selection. 【Conclusion】The following measures should be used to increase the possibility of risk-averse farmers choosing long-term land transfer contracts: reduce the various risks faced by farmers in the long-term land transfer and focus on building and maintaining an effective social network for farmers.