关键词: 马尾松, 气候变化, MaxEnt模型, 代表性浓度路径, 潜在地理分布, 主导生物气候因子

Abstract:

【Objective】The suitable distribution range of masson pine (Pinus massoniana) was analyzed and predicted considering future climate change, and the main climatic factors affecting the potential geographical distribution are discussed in order to provide a reference and a guidance for the management and protection of germplasm resources in the potential distribution area.【Method】Masson pine distribution data recorded according to the Chinese Virtual Herbarium, a MaxEnt model and geographic information system software ArcGIS 10.3 were used to investigate the current distribution characteristics and potential distribution areas. A suitable distribution range and future changes (until 2050 and 2070) under two climate scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5)] were predicted, and the main climatic factors were analyzed.【Result】At present, the areas covered by masson pine were mainly distributed in the south of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River line. Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, southwest of Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, southeast of Sichuan, north of Guizhou, central Guangxi, and northern Guangdong were the main distribution areas, whereas Hainan, Yunnan and Taiwan of China were scattered distribution areas. In the future climate scenario, the adaptive area of masson pine will move to the northern part of China, including areas in the west of Henan Province, Shandong Peninsula, Liaodong Peninsula, east of Hebei, and south of Shanxi Province, whereas there will be no natural distribution in scattered areas in the south of Yunnan. In two climate scenarios and under the same RCP, the difference between the adaptive areas of different years was not pronounced, and the variation trend was roughly the same. However, there were significant differences in changes of each adaptive area under different RCP scenarios of the same age, and the impact of RCP 8.5 was higher than that of RCP 2.6. The dominant bioclimate variables affecting the geographical distribution of masson pine were average annual precipitation, precipitation during the driest months, and average daily temperature ranges, and precipitation exerted stronger effects than temperature.【Conclusion】 Future climate change will lead to a further expansion of masson pine distributions, and the new distribution areas will mainly be in the north of the current distribution area. Based on the current habitat of masson pine, a protection zone should be established reasonably according to the local climate type, soil conditions, and other environmental factors, so that masson pine populations can adapt over time to the new environment.

Key words: masson pine(Pinus massoniana), climate change, MaxEnt model, representative concentration pathways, potential geographic distribution, dominant bioclimate factor