【目的】研究和实践证明森林认证对林产品贸易有重要的影响,纸和纸浆是林产品的重要组成部分。从全球视角评估森林认证对不同经济体国家的纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响效应,为中国森林认证制度、机制和政策的建设提供科学的依据和指导。【方法】将消费者不完全信息条件引入森林认证对不同国家贸易影响的理论框架,并将森林认证纳入扩展的引力模型,以处理引力模型的异方差和零贸易值问题,使用2009—2018年68个国家纸和纸浆产品森林认证数据和双边贸易的数据,从出口国的森林认证出口竞争效应、进口国的贸易壁垒效应、由进出口国森林认证的相互作用所获得的共同语言效应3个方面分解影响效应,并将总样本细分为4个子模型以评估对不同经济体的影响。【结果】森林认证对纸和纸浆产品国际贸易的影响呈现效应不对称。森林认证对纸和纸浆产品具有显著的出口竞争效应,且发展中国家优于发达国家;在与发达国家贸易的过程中,森林认证产生了贸易壁垒效应,且对于发展中国家更明显。森林认证的通用语言效应在发展中国家的双边贸易中并未显现,而在发达国家与发展中国家贸易过程中具有通用语言效应。【结论】对我国纸和纸浆产品乃至其他林产品生产和贸易来说,森林认证是其发展不可回避的环境和资源因素,并且其影响效应呈不断增强的趋势。因此,需要从宏观制度、机制和政策建设的层面,高度关注并切实推进森林认证在国内的发展。

【Objective】Research and practice have demonstrated that forest certification has a substantial impact on trade in forest products. Paper and pulp products are an important component of forest products. This paper assessed the impact of forest certification on the international trade in paper and pulp products in different economies from a global perspective, to provide scientific guidance for the construction of China’s forest certification system, mechanism and policy. 【Method】The consumer incomplete information condition was introduced into the theoretical framework of the impact of forest certification on trade for different countries. Forest certification was also incorporated into the extended gravity model. Based on data of the number of forest certifications and the bilateral trade value of paper and pulp products for 68 countries from 2009 to 2018, the impact effect is decomposed from three aspects: export competition effects of forest certification in exporting countries, trade barrier effects in importing countries, and common language effect coming from the interaction of forest certification in importing and exporting countries. The total sample was further subdivided into four sub-models to assess the impact on different economies. 【Result】The effect of forest certification on the international trade in paper and pulp products is asymmetric. Forest certification has a significant export competitive effect on paper and pulp products, which is more pronounced in developing countries than in developed countries. In the process of trade with developed countries, forest certification has a trade barrier effect, which has a stronger influence in developing countries. The common language effect of forest certification does not exist during the trade of developing countries, while it plays a role in trade between developed and developing countries. 【Conclusion】Forest certification is an unavoidable environmental and resource factor in the development of the production and trade of paper and pulp products, as well as the other forest products in China, and its influence is increasing. It is necessary to pay strong attention to and promote the development of forest certification in China at the level of the macro system, mechanism and policy construction.