祁连山北坡青海云杉的潜在分布

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202012011

国家林草科技领军期刊
中国精品科技期刊
中国高校百佳科技期刊
江苏省新闻出版政府奖期刊奖
RCCSE林学权威期刊（A+）
CSCD核心期刊
Scopus数据库收录期刊
中文核心期刊
SCD核心期刊

作者加群：102861116

微信公众号：南京林业大学学报

高级检索

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 221-226.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202012011

祁连山北坡青海云杉的潜在分布

涂振宇(), 勾晓华, 邹松兵()

兰州大学资源环境学院,西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2020-12-05 接受日期:2021-02-22 出版日期:2022-03-30 发布日期:2022-04-08
通讯作者: 邹松兵
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2019YFC0507401);甘肃省科技计划项目(21ZD4FA008);项目item

Potential distributions of Picea crassifolia on the north slope of Qilian Mountains

TU Zhenyu(), GOU Xiaohua, ZOU Songbing()

Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environment Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2020-12-05 Accepted:2021-02-22 Online:2022-03-30 Published:2022-04-08
Contact: ZOU Songbing

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】确定适宜环境下青海云杉的分布潜力,可以为区域生态恢复、生态潜力评估提供重要依据。【方法】基于祁连山国家自然保护区的物种分布数据及相关环境数据,利用生态位物种分布模型对青海云杉进行较高空间精度的潜在分布模拟,并对影响其分布特征的关键因子进行分析。【结果】最大熵模型(MaxEnt)、生物气候模型(Bioclim)、域模型(Domain)、生态位因子分析模型(ENFA)的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)的下面积值(AUC)分别为0.977、0.936、0.959、0.904,均有较高的诊断价值,结合物种实际分布与模型AUC值,MaxEnt模型模拟效果最佳。【结论】运用空间分析,归纳多种环境要素与青海云杉之间的定量关系,并通过标准差椭圆方法,界定祁连山国家自然保护区内青海云杉分布的环境要素边界,可为区域生态建设提供支撑,具有重要的科学与实践价值。

关键词: 青海云杉, 潜在分布, 生态位, 最大熵模型, 祁连山

Abstract:

【Objective】Determining the distribution potential of Picea crassifolia in a suitable environment can provide an important basis for a regional ecological restoration and potential assessment. 【Method】Based on the species distribution data and related environmental data in the study area, a species distribution model based on the ecological niche was used to simulate the potential distribution of P. crassifolia with high spatial accuracy, and the key factors affecting its distribution characteristics were analyzed. 【Result】The results showed that the area under curve (AUC) values of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the MaxEnt, Bioclim, Domain, and ecology niche factor analysis (ENFA) models were 0.977, 0.936, 0.959, and 0.904, respectively, which had high diagnostic values. Combined with the actual distribution of species and AUC values, the MaxEnt model had the best simulation effect. 【Conclusion】Using spatial analysis, the quantitative relationship between various environmental factors and P. crassifolia was summarized, and the boundary of environmental factors in the distribution area of P. crassifolia on the northern slope of the Qilian Mountains was defined using the standard deviation ellipse method, which provides a support for the regional ecological construction and has an important scientific and practical value.

Key words: Picea crassifolia, potential distribution, ecological niche, MaxEnt model, Qilian Mountains

中图分类号:

S791.18

涂振宇,勾晓华,邹松兵. 祁连山北坡青海云杉的潜在分布[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 46(2): 221-226.

TU Zhenyu, GOU Xiaohua, ZOU Songbing. Potential distributions of Picea crassifolia on the north slope of Qilian Mountains[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2022, 46(2): 221-226.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202012011.

图/表 5

表1

图1

图2

图3

图4

参考文献 30

[1]	刘贤德, 张学龙. 祁连山天然林:河西走廊生命线[J]. 森林与人类, 2004(4):16-19.
	LIU X D, ZHANG X L. The life line of the Hexi Hallway[J]. For Humankind, 2004(4):16-19.
[2]	赵传燕, 别强, 彭焕华. 祁连山北坡青海云杉林生境特征分析[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(1):113-121.
	ZHAO C Y, BIE Q, PENG H H. Analysis of the niche space of Picea crassifolia on the northern slope of Qilian Mountains[J]. Acta Geogr Sin, 2010, 65(1):113-121.
[3]	赵成章, 龙瑞军. 祁连山地牧民经济收入变迁及影响因素实证研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2005, 19(S1):38-42.
	ZHAO C Z, LONG R J. Study on the economic income change and influence factors of households in Qilian Mountain[J]. J Arid Land Resour Environ, 2005, 19(S1):38-42.
[4]	戴尔阜, 方创琳. 甘肃河西地区生态问题与生态环境建设[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2002, 16(2):1-5.
	DAI E F, FANG C L. Ecological problems and ecological environment construction in Hexi area of Gansu[J]. J Arid Land Resour Environ, 2002, 16(2):1-5. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-7578.2002.02.001. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-7578.2002.02.001
[5]	姜红梅, 李明治, 王亲, 等. 祁连山东段不同植被下土壤养分状况研究[J]. 水土保持研究, 2011, 18(5):166-170.
	JIANG H M, LI M Z, WANG Q, et al. Dynamics of soil nutrients under different vegetation types in the eastern Qilian Mountains[J]. Res Soil Water Conserv, 2011, 18(5):166-170.
[6]	曹雪萍, 王婧如, 鲁松松, 等. 气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的青海云杉潜在分布格局模拟[J]. 生态学报, 2019, 39(14):5232-5240.
	CAO X P, WANG J R, LU S S, et al. Simulation of the potential distribution patterns of Picea crassifolia in climate change scenarios based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model[J]. Acta Ecol Sin, 2019, 39(14):5232-5240.
[7]	张明军, 周立华. 祁连山水源涵养林生态系统服务价值估算[J]. 甘肃林业科技, 2003, 28(1):7-9.
	ZHANG M J, ZHOU L H. The forest ecosystem service and their valuation on Qilian Mountain[J]. J Gansu For Sci Technol, 2003, 28(1):7-9.
[8]	孟好军, 刘建泉, 刘贤德, 等. 祁连山青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布[J]. 生态环境学报, 2011, 20(3):435-440.
	MENG H J, LIU J Q, LIU X D, et al. Species composition and vertical distribution pattern of α diversity of the Picea crassifolia community in Qilian Mountains of Gansu,China[J]. Ecol Environ Sci, 2011, 20(3):435-440. DOI: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2011.03.003. doi: 10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2011.03.003
[9]	李飞, 赵军, 赵传燕, 等. 中国干旱半干旱区潜在植被演替[J]. 生态学报, 2011, 31(3):689-697.
	LI F, ZHAO J, ZHAO C Y, et al. Succession of potential vegetation in arid and semi-arid area of China[J]. Acta Ecol Sin, 2011, 31(3):689-697.
[10]	车彦军, 赵军, 张明军, 等. 不同气候变化情景下2070-2099年中国潜在植被及其敏感性[J]. 生态学报, 2016, 36(10):2885-2895.
	CHE Y J, ZHAO J, ZHANG M J, et al. Potential vegetation and its sensitivity under different climate change scenarios from 2070 to 2099 in China[J]. Acta Ecol Sin,2016, 36(10):2885-2895.
[11]	王运生, 谢丙炎, 万方浩, et al. ROC曲线分析在评价入侵物种分布模型中的应用[J]. 生物多样性, 2007, 15(4):365-372.
	WANG Y S, XIE B Y, WAN F H, et al. Application of ROC curve analysis in evaluating the performance of alien species’ potential distribution[J]. Biodivers Sci, 2007, 15(4):365-372. doi: 10.1360/biodiv.060280
[12]	邢丁亮, 郝占庆. 最大熵原理及其在生态学研究中的应用[J]. 生物多样性, 2011, 19(3):295-302. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2011.08318
	XING D L, HAO Z Q. The principle of maximum entropy and its applications in ecology[J]. Biodivers Sci, 2011, 19(3):295-302. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1003.2011.08318
[13]	刘清亮, 李垚, 方升佐. 基于MaxEnt模型的青钱柳潜在适宜栽培区预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报(自然科学版), 2017, 41(4):25-29.
	LIU Q L, LI Y, FANG S Z. MaxEnt model-based identification of potential Cyclocarya paliurus cultivation regions[J]. J Nanjing For Univ (Nat Sci Ed), 2017, 41(4):25-29. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201608010. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201608010
[14]	杨瑞, 张雅林, 冯纪年. 利用ENFA生态位模型分析玉带凤蝶和箭环蝶异地放飞的适生性[J]. 昆虫学报, 2008, 51(3):290-297.
	YANG R, ZHANG Y L, FENG J N. Habitat suitability analysis in live releasing of two butterflies Papilio polytes Linnaeus and Stichophthalma howqua (Westwood) in China using ENFA[J]. Acta Entomol Sin, 2008, 51(3):290-297. DOI: 10.16380/j.kcxb.2008.03.007. doi: 10.16380/j.kcxb.2008.03.007
[15]	HOLDRIDGE L R. Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data[J]. Science, 1947, 105(2727):367-368. DOI: 10.1126/science.105.2727.367. doi: 10.1126/science.105.2727.367
[16]	罗翀, 徐卫华, 周志翔, 等. 基于生态位模型的秦岭山系林麝生境预测[J]. 生态学报, 2011, 31(5):1221-1229.
	LUO C, XU W H, ZHOU Z X, et al. Habitat prediction for forest musk deer(Moschus berezovskii) in Qinling Mountain range based on niche model[J]. Acta Ecol Sin, 2011, 31(5):1221-1229.
[17]	张兴旺, 李垚, 方炎明. 麻栎在中国的地理分布及潜在分布区预测[J]. 西北植物学报, 2014, 34(8):1685-1692.
	ZHANG X W, LI Y, FANG Y M. Geographical distribution and prediction of potential ranges of Quercus acutissima in China[J]. Acta Bot Boreali Occidentalia Sin, 2014, 34(8):1685-1692.
[18]	张海涛, 罗渡, 牟希东, 等. 应用多个生态位模型预测福寿螺在中国的潜在适生区[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(4):1277-1284.
	ZHANG H T, LUO D, MU X D, et al. Predicting the potential suitable distribution area of the apple snail Pomacea canaliculata in China based on multiple ecological niche models[J]. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2016, 27(4):1277-1284. DOI: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201604.027. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.201604.027
[19]	张雷, 刘世荣, 孙鹏森, 等. 基于DOMAIN和Neural Ensembles模型预测中国毛竹潜在分布[J]. 林业科学, 2011, 47(7):20-26.
	ZHANG L, LIU S R, SUN P S, et al. Predicting the potential distribution of Phyllostachys edulis with DOMAIN and Neural Ensembles models[J]. Sci Silvae Sin, 2011, 47(7):20-26.
[20]	郭乃嘉. 基于生态位模型的中间香型烤烟生态适宜区潜在分布预测[D]. 重庆: 西南大学, 2013.
	GUO N J. Potential distribution prediction of middle flavor style flue-cured tobacco based on ecological niche model[D]. Chongqing: Southwest University, 2013.
[21]	蒋霞, 倪健. 西北干旱区10种荒漠植物地理分布与大气候的关系及其可能潜在分布区的估测[J]. 植物生态学报, 2005, 29(1):98-107. doi: 10.17521/cjpe.2005.0013
	JIANG X, NI J. Species-climate relationships of 10 desert plant species and their estimated potential distribution range in the arid lands of northwestern China[J]. Acta Phytoecol Sin, 2005, 29(1):98-107.
[22]	张颖, 李君, 林蔚, 等. 基于最大熵生态位元模型的入侵杂草春飞蓬在中国潜在分布区的预测[J]. 应用生态学报, 2011, 22(11):2970-2976.
	ZHANG Y, LI J, LIN W, et al. Prediction of potential distribution area of Erigeron philadelphicus in China[J]. Chin J Appl Ecol, 2011, 22(11):2970-2976. DOI: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.2011.0415. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.2011.0415
[23]	SVENNING J C, SKOV F. The relative roles of environment and history as controls of tree species composition and richness in Europe[J]. J Biogeogr, 2005, 32(6):1019-1033. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01219.x. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2005.01219.x.
[24]	张虎, 温娅丽, 马力, 等. 祁连山北坡中部气候特征及垂直气候带的划分[J]. 山地学报, 2001, 19(6):497-502.
	ZHANG H, WEN Y L, MA L, et al. The climate features and regionalization of vertical climatic zones in the northern slope of Qilian Mountains[J]. J Mt Res, 2001, 19(6):497-502.
[25]	陈桂琛, 彭敏, 黄荣福, 等. 祁连山地区植被特征及其分布规律[J]. 植物学报, 1994, 36(1):63-72.
	CHEN G C, PENG M, HUANG R F, et al. Vegetation characteristics and its distribution of Qilian Mountain region[J]. Acta Bot Sin, 1994, 36(1):63-72.
[26]	王学福, 郭生祥. 祁连山青海云杉个体生长过程分析[J]. 林业实用技术, 2014(7):10-13.
	WANG X F, GUO S X. Analysis of individual growth process of Qinghai spruce in Qilian Mountains[J]. Pract For Technol, 2014(7):10-13. DOI: 10.13456/j.cnki.lykt.2014.07.003. doi: 10.13456/j.cnki.lykt.2014.07.003
[27]	王延芳, 张永香, 勾晓华, 等. 祁连山中部低海拔地区青海云杉径向生长的气候响应机制[J]. 生态学报, 2020, 40(1):161-169.
	WANG Y F, ZHANG Y X, GOU X H, et al. Climate response mechanism of radial growth of Picea crassifolia in low altitude area of middle Qilian Mountains[J]. Acta Ecol Sin, 2020, 40(1):161-169. DOI: 10.5846/stxb201811022366. doi: 10.5846/stxb201811022366
[28]	郭铌, 杨兰芳, 李民轩. 利用气象卫星资料研究祁连山区植被和积雪变化[J]. 应用气象学报, 2003, 14(6):700-707.
	GUO N, YANG L F, LI M X. Study of changes of vegetation and snow area in Qilian Mountains using meteorology satellite data[J]. J Appl Meteorol Sci, 2003, 14(6):700-707. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.06.008. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.06.008
[29]	刘建泉. 祁连山保护区青海云杉种群分布格局的研究[J]. 西北林学院学报, 2004, 19(2):152-155.
	LIU J Q. Spatial pattern of Picea crassifolia population in Qilianshan Nature Conservation[J]. J Northwest For Univ, 2004, 19(2):152-155. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2004.02.044. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2004.02.044
[30]	别强, 赵传燕, 强文丽, 等. 祁连山自然保护区青海云杉林近四十年动态变化分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2013, 27(4):176-180.
	BIE Q, ZHAO C Y, QIANG W L, et al. Dynamic change of Picea crassifolia in Qilian Mountain in recent 40 years[J]. J Arid Land Resour Environ, 2013, 27(4):176-180. DOI: 10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2013.04.020. doi: 10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2013.04.020

项目 item	海拔/m altitude	坡度/ (°) slope	坡向/ (°) aspect	平均气温/℃ mean temperature			平均降水/mm mean precipitation
项目 item	海拔/m altitude	坡度/ (°) slope	坡向/ (°) aspect	1月 Jan.	7月 Jul.	年均 mean annual	1月 Jan.	7月 Jul.	年均 mean annual
均值 mean	2 963.0	23.17	-2.60	-11.33	15.33	2.28	1.990	93.64	429.10
标准差 standard deviation	146.9	8.16	35.81	0.88	1.41	1.01	0.071	8.55	42.03
下限 lower limit	2 414.0	0.73	-133.90	-14.28	11.02	-1.67	1.780	63.89	298.26
上限 upper limit	3 753.0	46.44	99.82	-8.19	18.94	4.85	2.190	120.27	540.16

祁连山北坡青海云杉的潜在分布

Potential distributions of Picea crassifolia on the north slope of Qilian Mountains

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 5

参考文献 30

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

作者

读者

审稿

[1]	张莹, 王让会, 刘春伟, 周丽敏. 祁连山自然保护区生境质量模拟及预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(3): 135-144.
[2]	高明龙, 铁牛, 张晨, 李凤滋, 乌雅瀚, 罗奇辉, 王子瑞, 刘磊, 萨如拉. 基于Biomod2组合模型的我国山杨潜在分布区研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(2): 247-255.
[3]	罗楚滢, 佘济云, 唐子朝. 基于SSPs气候场景的濒危植物银杉潜在分布区预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(1): 161-168.
[4]	李雨晗, 丁彦芬, 张畅为. 南京外秦淮河优势草本植物生态位和种间联结性研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(6): 203-210.
[5]	韩淑敏, 闫伟, 杨雪栋, 胡博, 于凤强, 高润红. 白榆在我国的潜在分布格局及未来变化[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(3): 103-110.
[6]	缪菁, 王勇, 王璐, 许晓岗. 基于MaxEnt模型的苦槠潜在地理分布格局变迁预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2021, 45(3): 193-198.
[7]	欧阳芳群, 祁生秀, 范国霞, 蔡启山, 陈海庆, 高万里, 胡长寿, 王军辉. 青海云杉自由授粉家系遗传变异与基于BLUP的改良代亲本选择[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2019, 43(6): 53-59.
[8]	张继强,陈文业,谈嫣蓉,刘冬皓,袁海峰,王斌杰,刘鸿源,陈旭. 甘肃敦煌西湖湿地芦苇盐化草甸植物群落生态位特征研究.[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2019, 43(02): 191-196.
[9]	王璐,吴秀萍,李垚,许晓岗. 北美银钟花在中国的适宜栽培区研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 42(05): 10-16.
[10]	白欢欢,王雪峰,徐建国. 天然黄山松群落主要树种营养生态位特征研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 42(02): 81-88.
[11]	刘清亮,李垚1,3,方升佐1,2*. 基于MaxEnt模型的青钱柳潜在适宜栽培区预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2017, 41(04): 25-29.
[12]	万艳芳,刘贤德,于澎涛,马瑞,王顺利,王彦辉,李晓青. 祁连山鲜黄小檗灌丛穿透雨特征及其影响因素[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2017, 41(02): 97-102.
[13]	吴倩楠,董建文,郑宇,傅伟聪,李慧,朱志鹏,陈梓茹,丁国昌. 百里杜鹃国家森林公园优势种生态位研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2017, 41(02): 175-180.
[14]	吴显坤,南程慧,汤庚国,李垚,毛丽君,张志成. 气候变化对浙江楠潜在分布范围及空间格局的影响[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2016, 40(06): 85-91.
[15]	彭冶,王焱,顾慧,叶建仁. 外来观赏植物大花金鸡菊在中国的潜在地理分布预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2016, 40(01): 53-58.