关键词: 原木贸易网络, 危机传播, 靴襻渗流模型, 新冠肺炎疫情影响, 经济全球化

Abstract:

【Objective】The deepening of economic globalization has made trade relations between countries closer. To a certain extent, the speed and breadth of the spread of crises, such as political and economic crises in the trade network has increased. Clarifying the global log trade network structure and the path of crisis propagation can help countries avoid trade risks and optimize the log trade structure.【Method】This paper used social network analysis method and bootstrap percolation model to analyze the structural characteristics of the global log trade network in 2018 from the perspective of the whole-part-individual, and then simulated the impact of the global log trade network when countries experience trade crises under different scenarios.【Result】Results show that the global log trade network is loose as a whole while close for some parts with there being differences in the centrality of different countries. The “grouping” phenomenon for core countries makes the “club” effect in the network relatively pronounced. The impact of trade crises in different countries in the network can generally be divided into four categories, namely “fast and wide”, “fast and narrow”, “slow and wide”, and “slow and narrow”. Log import-dependent and export-dependent countries have different characteristics in terms of crisis transmission, and log important-dependent countries show a strong crisis influence. The influence of a country’s crisis depends on the country’s network structure and its trade structure. A bootstrap percolation model can effectively simulate the process of crisis propagation in the log trade network, with an approximately similar crisis propagation process. Meanwhile, the degree of influence on the network is different under different thresholds. A country with a higher dependence on trade is more likely to be affected by the crisis. 【Conclusion】For this reason, countries should focus on building more stable trade relations from an overall perspective, and continuously reduce the log trade dependence on a single country to diversify risks and optimize the global log trading network.

Key words: log trade network, crisis transmission, bootstrap percolation model, COVID-19 epidemic effect, economic globalization