【目的】经济全球化的深入使得各国之间的贸易联系越来越紧密,一定程度上提升了政治、经济等危机在贸易网络中传播的速度和广度。分析全球原木贸易网络结构及其危机传播路径,有利于各国规避贸易风险,优化原木贸易结构。【方法】综合运用社会网络分析方法和靴襻渗流仿真模型,首先分析2018年全球原木贸易网络结构特征,然后仿真分析不同情境下各国发生贸易危机时对全球原木贸易网络的影响。【结果】全球原木贸易网络整体关系松散,局部关系紧密,不同国家的中心度有所不同,核心国家的“抱团”现象使得网络中“俱乐部”效应明显;不同国家发生贸易危机时对网络的影响总体上可分为“快而广”“快而窄”“慢而广”“慢而窄”4种类型。原木进口依赖型和出口依赖型国家在危机传播方面具有不同的特征,前者表现出较强的危机影响力。一国的危机影响力不仅取决于该国的网络结构,还与其贸易结构相关。靴襻渗流模型能够很好地模拟原木贸易网络中的危机传播过程,且不同阈值下,危机传播过程较为相似,但对网络的影响程度不同。通过2020年爆发的新冠肺炎疫情对原木贸易网络的影响分析可得,一国对原木贸易依赖程度越高,受危机影响的程度越大。【结论】各国应从全局的视角出发,着力构建更为稳定的贸易关系,不断降低对单一国家的原木贸易依赖,从而分散风险,优化全球原木贸易网络。

【Objective】The deepening of economic globalization has made trade relations between countries closer. To a certain extent, the speed and breadth of the spread of crises, such as political and economic crises in the trade network has increased. Clarifying the global log trade network structure and the path of crisis propagation can help countries avoid trade risks and optimize the log trade structure.【Method】This paper used social network analysis method and bootstrap percolation model to analyze the structural characteristics of the global log trade network in 2018 from the perspective of the whole-part-individual, and then simulated the impact of the global log trade network when countries experience trade crises under different scenarios.【Result】Results show that the global log trade network is loose as a whole while close for some parts with there being differences in the centrality of different countries. The “grouping” phenomenon for core countries makes the “club” effect in the network relatively pronounced. The impact of trade crises in different countries in the network can generally be divided into four categories, namely “fast and wide”, “fast and narrow”, “slow and wide”, and “slow and narrow”. Log import-dependent and export-dependent countries have different characteristics in terms of crisis transmission, and log important-dependent countries show a strong crisis influence. The influence of a country’s crisis depends on the country’s network structure and its trade structure. A bootstrap percolation model can effectively simulate the process of crisis propagation in the log trade network, with an approximately similar crisis propagation process. Meanwhile, the degree of influence on the network is different under different thresholds. A country with a higher dependence on trade is more likely to be affected by the crisis. 【Conclusion】For this reason, countries should focus on building more stable trade relations from an overall perspective, and continuously reduce the log trade dependence on a single country to diversify risks and optimize the global log trading network.