南京林业大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5): 201-212.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202106010
收稿日期:
2021-06-04
修回日期:
2021-08-23
出版日期:
2022-09-30
发布日期:
2022-10-19
通讯作者:
姜钰
基金资助:
LI Chaohong(), WEI Wei, JIANG Yu()
Received:
2021-06-04
Revised:
2021-08-23
Online:
2022-09-30
Published:
2022-10-19
Contact:
JIANG Yu
摘要:
【目的】黑龙江省天保工程的主要目标既包括天然林保护与生态环境建设目标,也包括林区社会和谐发展目标,还包括转变林区发展方式、提升林区产业经济发展目标。对天保工程实施20多年来的绩效进行跟踪评价,考察天保工程区是否达到国家预期的效果,分析可能遇到的障碍或阻力。【方法】从森林生态、产业经济、社会稳定3个维度构建黑龙江省天保工程区绩效评价指标体系,将客观赋权的熵权与逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)相结合构建天保工程区绩效评价模型及障碍因子甄别模型,对1997—2019年黑龙江省天保工程区绩效进行评价及其障碍因子甄别。【结果】①1997—2019年,黑龙江省天保工程区的综合绩效评价指数从0.011 5升至0.799 7,森林生态维度绩效评价指数从0.012 1升至0.711 2,社会稳定维度绩效评价指数从0.010 2升至0.739 7,产业经济维度绩效评价指数从0.013 4升至0.765 5;②1997—2019年天保工程区产业经济维度、森林生态维度、社会稳定维度的障碍指数均值分别为46.18%、27.62%、26.20%。【结论】黑龙江省天保工程二期比天保工程前、天保工程试点和天保工程一期的综合绩效水平及各维度绩效水平都有了明显提升;从动态发展视角来看,产业经济维度是天保工程的主要障碍因子,指标层的前5位障碍因子分别是人工林木材产量、木材产品销售量、第一产业涉林产业总产值、工程区木材产量、林业旅游与休闲服务产值。
中图分类号:
李朝洪,韦唯,姜钰. 黑龙江省天保工程区绩效评价及其障碍因子甄别[J]. 南京林业大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 46(5): 201-212.
LI Chaohong, WEI Wei, JIANG Yu. Performance evaluation and obstacle factor screening of Natural Forest Protection Project area in Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2022, 46(5): 201-212.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202106010.
表1
黑龙江省天保工程区1999—2019年主要指标"
指标 indicator | 年份year | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
1999 | 2000 | 2010 | 2019 | |
木材产量 / m3 timber product output | 6 940 696 | 6 931 296 | 6 041 993 | 4 100 |
森林面积/×104 hm2 forest area | 1 760.31 | 1 797.50 | 1 962.13 | 1 990.46 |
林地面积/×104hm2 woodland area | 2 131.24 | 2 026.50 | 2 207.40 | 2 453.77 |
森林蓄积量/×104m3 forest stock | 141 069.30 | 137 502.31 | 164 487.01 | 184 704.09 |
年末实有封山育林面积/ hm2 area of closed forest at the end of the year for afforestation | 496 100 | 1 038 214 | 463 975 | 409 517 |
全部造林面积/ hm2 total afforestation area | 87 240 | 91 970 | 3 080 | 64 885 |
天保工程造林面积/ hm2 afforestation area of Natural Forest Protection Project | 46 200 | 43 058 | 3 080 | 44 416 |
实有森林管护面积/ hm2 actual forest management and protection area | 15 349 930 | 15 558 960 | 16 817 282 | 17 719 821 |
年末在册在岗职工人数 number of the on-the-job employees at the end of the year | 472 491 | 386 454 | 285 209 | 229 067 |
安置富余职工人数 resettlement of surplus employees | — | 60 441 | 9 044 | — |
林业产业总产值/×104元 gross output value of forest industry | 1 271 519 | 1 291 523 | 4 165 477 | 4 991 830 |
在岗职工年人均工资/元 average annual salary of on-the-job employees | 11 059 | 12 300 | 19 765 | 38 841 |
表2
黑龙江省天保工程区绩效评价指标体系及其熵权"
维度层 dimension layer | 因子层 factor layer | 指标层 indicator layer | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
维度 dimension | 熵权 entropy weight | 因子 factor | 熵权 entropy weight | 指标 indicator | 熵权 entropy weight | |
森林生态 维度 (DF) forest ecological dimension | 0.387 5 | S1资源存量水平 resource stock | 0.728 1 | I1 林地保有总量forest land stock | 0.337 6 | |
I2 森林保有总量forest area | 0.351 7 | |||||
I3 森林蓄积量forest stock | 0.310 7 | |||||
S2资源保护力度 resource protection strength | 0.271 9 | I4 生态建设与保护投资ecological construction and protection investment | 0.436 9 | |||
I5 自然保护区面积占比proportion of nature reserves area | 0.298 8 | |||||
I6 森林公园总面积占比proportion of forest park total area | 0.264 3 | |||||
产业经济 维度 (DI) industrial economic dimension | 0.252 8 | S3 产出水平 output level | 0.333 1 | I7 林业产业总产值gross output value of forestry industry | 0.061 6 | |
I8 第一产业涉林产业总产值gross output value of forestry industry involved in primary industry | 0.131 1 | |||||
I9 人造板制造产值gross output value of wood-based panel manufacturing industry | 0.070 3 | |||||
I10 林业旅游与休闲服务产值gross output value of forestry tourism and leisure service | 0.252 6 | |||||
I11 工程区木材产量timber output in project region | 0.093 4 | |||||
I12 人工林木材产量plantation wood output | 0.136 8 | |||||
I13 木材产品销售量wood product sales | 0.114 0 | |||||
I14 食用菌产量edible fungus production | 0.140 2 | |||||
S4 产业结构 industrial structure | 0.112 3 | I15 林业第一产业产值占林业总产值比重proportion of gross output value of forestry primary industry | 0.095 3 | |||
I16 林业第二产业产值占林业总产值比重proportion of gross output value of forestry secondary industry | 0.205 7 | |||||
I17 林业第三产业产值占林业总产值比重proportion of gross output value of forestry tertiary industry | 0.296 4 | |||||
I18 产业结构层次系数industrial structure hierarchy coefficient | 0.004 3 | |||||
I19 产业结构合理化指数industrial structure rationalization index | 0.398 3 | |||||
S5 产业投资 industrial investment | 0.554 6 | I20 林业产业发展投资总额total investment in forestry industry development | 0.837 4 | |||
I21林业支撑与保障投资总额total investment in forestry support and guarantee | 0.162 6 | |||||
社会稳定 维度 (DS) social stability dimension | 0.359 7 | S6 居民生活与 社会安全 residents' life and social security | 0.788 5 | I22 森工职工信访率letter and visit rate of forest employees | 0.256 0 | |
I23 家庭暴力发生率incidence of domestic violence | 0.253 2 | |||||
I24 公安机关查处治安案件数number of public security cases investigated by public security organs | 0.037 0 | |||||
I25 公安机关刑事案件立案数 number of criminal cases filed by public security organs | 0.254 5 | |||||
I26 人民检察院纠正违法总件次total number of illegal cases corrected by the People's Procuratorate | 0.056 4 | |||||
I27 人民法院审理一审案件数number of first-instance cases heard by the People's Courts | 0.142 9 | |||||
S7 职工收入和 社会保障 employee income and social security | 0.211 5 | I28 基本养老保险比proportion of basic old-age insurance | 0.123 1 | |||
I29 基本医疗保险比proportion of basic medical insurance | 0.124 6 | |||||
I30 在岗职工年均工资average annual salary of on-the-job employees | 0.155 9 | |||||
I31 当年离退休人员生活费current year retiree cost of living | 0.596 4 |
表3
1997—2019年天保工程区绩效评价指数和绩效水平"
年份 year | 森林生态维度 forest ecological dimension | 产业经济维度 industrial economic dimension | 社会稳定维度 social stability dimension | 工程区综合 project area summary | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
绩效指数 index | 绩效水平 level | 绩效指数 index | 绩效水平 level | 绩效指数 index | 绩效水平 level | 绩效指数 index | 绩效水平 level | |
1997 | 0.012 1 | 较差 | 0.013 4 | 较差 | 0.010 2 | 较差 | 0.011 5 | 较差 |
1998 | 0.013 9 | 较差 | 0.015 6 | 较差 | 0.011 5 | 较差 | 0.024 5 | 较差 |
1999 | 0.021 3 | 较差 | 0.013 2 | 较差 | 0.012 3 | 较差 | 0.088 7 | 较差 |
2000 | 0.022 4 | 较差 | 0.175 6 | 较差 | 0.013 3 | 较差 | 0.089 3 | 较差 |
2001 | 0.032 9 | 较差 | 0.183 4 | 较差 | 0.016 2 | 较差 | 0.095 4 | 较差 |
2002 | 0.042 2 | 较差 | 0.226 7 | 较差 | 0.051 1 | 较差 | 0.125 0 | 较差 |
2003 | 0.059 3 | 较差 | 0.172 6 | 较差 | 0.112 1 | 较差 | 0.131 3 | 较差 |
2004 | 0.096 2 | 较差 | 0.158 7 | 较差 | 0.132 4 | 较差 | 0.154 0 | 较差 |
2005 | 0.111 3 | 较差 | 0.173 1 | 较差 | 0.142 5 | 较差 | 0.171 6 | 较差 |
2006 | 0.122 5 | 较差 | 0.185 6 | 较差 | 0.156 9 | 较差 | 0.189 0 | 较差 |
2007 | 0.143 3 | 较差 | 0.180 9 | 较差 | 0.163 0 | 较差 | 0.202 8 | 较差 |
2008 | 0.155 2 | 较差 | 0.224 8 | 较差 | 0.191 3 | 较差 | 0.236 6 | 较差 |
2009 | 0.232 2 | 较差 | 0.237 1 | 较差 | 0.235 2 | 较差 | 0.309 3 | 中等 |
2010 | 0.251 2 | 较差 | 0.276 2 | 较差 | 0.352 6 | 中等 | 0.393 1 | 中等 |
2011 | 0.412 2 | 中等 | 0.532 6 | 中等 | 0.370 3 | 中等 | 0.563 4 | 中等 |
2012 | 0.435 3 | 中等 | 0.452 4 | 中等 | 0.423 2 | 中等 | 0.586 5 | 中等 |
2013 | 0.462 7 | 中等 | 0.543 1 | 中等 | 0.433 5 | 中等 | 0.630 3 | 良好 |
2014 | 0.565 0 | 中等 | 0.567 2 | 中等 | 0.503 1 | 中等 | 0.734 1 | 良好 |
2015 | 0.612 5 | 良好 | 0.622 3 | 良好 | 0.550 4 | 中等 | 0.738 4 | 良好 |
2016 | 0.622 2 | 良好 | 0.669 3 | 良好 | 0.596 4 | 中等 | 0.749 4 | 良好 |
2017 | 0.656 1 | 良好 | 0.702 1 | 良好 | 0.644 2 | 良好 | 0.751 2 | 良好 |
2018 | 0.662 9 | 良好 | 0.730 5 | 良好 | 0.730 3 | 良好 | 0.765 5 | 良好 |
2019 | 0.711 2 | 良好 | 0.765 5 | 良好 | 0.739 7 | 良好 | 0.799 7 | 良好 |
表4
1997—2019年黑龙江省天保工程区障碍因子及障碍指数排名"
年份 year | 维度(障碍指数/%)排序 dimension (obstacle index) ranking | 指标(障碍指数/%)前5名 ranking top 5 indicators (obstacle indices) |
---|---|---|
1997 | DI(37.59) >DF(32.78) >DS(29.63) | I10(19.82) >I14(11.04) >I8(10.32) >I31(10.32) >I20(9.59) |
1998 | DI(41.13) >DF(33.20) >DS(25.67) | I10(20.09) >I14(11.16) >I31(10.45) >I8(10.37) >I20(9.36) |
1999 | DI(42.81) >DF(32.91) >DS(24.28) | I10(20.17) >I14(11.15) >I31(10.44) >I8(10.31) >I20(9.45) |
2000 | DI(43.53) >DF(32.54) >DS(23.93) | I10(20.38) >I14(11.23) >I8(10.58) >I31(10.56) >I20(9.00) |
2001 | DI(44.47) >DF(32.05) >DS(23.48) | I10(20.41) >I14(11.24) >I8(10.66) >I31(10.51) >I20(8.98) |
2002 | DI(43.50) >DF(32.10) >DS(24.40) | I10(21.23) >I14(11.65) >I8(10.99) >I31(10.73) >I20(8.43) |
2003 | DI(48.52) >DF(29.86) >DS(21.61) | I10(20.75) >I14(11.58) >I31(10.36) >I8(9.57) >I20(9.06) |
2004 | DI(50.87) >DF(28.42) >DS(20.71) | I10(23.00) >I14(11.94) >I31(11.41) >I8(10.44) >I20(10.03) |
2005 | DI(53.19) >DF(26.81) >DS(20.00) | I10(21.39) >I31(10.54) >I14(10.50) >I8(9.83) >I20(9.39) |
2006 | DI(53.45) >DF(26.13) >DS(20.42) | I10(21.72) >I31(10.92) >I20(9.95) >I8(9.72) >I12(8.79) |
2007 | DI(49.95) >DF(27.18) >DS(22.87) | I10(20.74) >I31(10.33) >I14(9.38) >I12(9.25) >I8(8.94) |
2008 | DI(52.88) >DF(25.32) >DS(21.80) | I10(22.04) > I31(10.84) >I14(10.33) >I20(9.85) >I12(9.81) |
2009 | DI(56.28) >DF(22.70) >DS(21.02) | I10(22.36) >I20(10.87) > I12(10.73) > I31(10.64) > I8(10.31) |
2010 | DI(58.60) >DF(20.71) >DS(20.68) | I10(23.90) > I20(12.82) > I31(11.47) > I8(11.33) > I14(8.66) |
2011 | DI(42.26) >DF(29.33) >DS(28.41) | I10(19.24) > I12(13.57) > I8(9.46) > I14(9.11) > I13(7.80) |
2012 | DI(49.85) >DS(25.96) >DF(24.19) | I10(15.79) > I12(13.84) > I8(9.39) > I31(9.29) > I13(9.07) |
2013 | DI(47.98) >DS(28.25) >DF(23.77) | I12(15.33) > I10(14.50) > I13(10.28) > I11(9.30) > I8(8.60) |
2014 | DI(46.72) >DS(29.44) >DF(23.84) | I12(15.19) > I10(11.61) > I13(11.04) > I11(9.84) > I8(8.96) |
2015 | DI(37.96) >DS(36.80) >DF(25.24) | I12(15.57) > I13(13.85) > I11(10.01) > I10(9.79) > I8(9.10) |
2016 | DI(37.15) >DS(33.76) >DF(29.09) | I12(16.83) > I13(14.77) > I11(10.96) > I8(9.78) > I14(9.22) |
2017 | DI(43.00) >DS(32.98) >DF(24.02) | I12(19.22) > I13(17.00) > I11(12.24) > I9(10.24) > I8(10.21) |
2018 | DI(39.25) >DS(32.84) >DF(27.91) | I12(27.00) > I13(22.50) > I11(18.41) > I9(13.55) > I21(4.67) |
2019 | DI(41.18) >DS(33.82) >DF(25.00) | I12(19.25) > I10(17.72) > I13(16.02) > I11(13.13) > I8(12.73) |
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