
林业碳汇对人工林最优轮伐期的影响--以杉木和落叶松为例
Effects of forest carbon sequestration on optimal rotation of plantations: a case study of Chinese fir and larch
【目的】在我国禁伐天然林的背景下,人工林的碳汇功能因为减缓气候变化方面的重要作用而备受关注。分析林业碳汇对我国人工林最优轮伐期的影响,为人工林碳汇经营的管理决策提供理论基础。【方法】以我国南方林区的杉木人工林和北方林区的落叶松人工林为研究对象,基于修正的Faustmann-Hartman模型,借助林木的生长模型和林业碳汇供给的计算模型,计算并比较不同经营目标下人工林的最优轮伐期和林地期望值。【结果】①无论树种和立地条件,将碳汇收益纳入经营目标都会增加林地期望值;②在碳价为35元/t、利率为5%时,将碳汇收益纳入林地经营目标,最优轮伐期有小于1 a的延长;只考虑碳汇收益时,人工林的碳汇收益随轮伐期的延长而增大;③碳价格在0~125元/t范围内变动时,杉木最优轮伐期有2~3 a的变动,落叶松最优轮伐期基本没有变化,最大林地期望值的变动均不明显。【结论】开展人工林的碳汇经营有利于林地投资。现有的经营强度和碳价格下,由于碳价格远远低于木材价格,将碳汇收益纳入林地经营目标时,林地经营者考虑的最优轮伐期不会有很大变化;只考虑碳汇收益时,以不砍伐森林的收益最大。碳价格在较低水平变动时,对人工林最优轮伐期的影响不显著。
【Objective】In the context of China’s natural forest logging ban, the carbon sequestration function of planted forests plays an important role in mitigating climate change. This study therefore aimed to analyze the impact of forestry carbon sequestration on the optimal rotation age of plantations in China and to provide a theoretical basis for management strategies of carbon sequestration in plantations.【Method】Taking the Cunninghamia lanceolata (Chinese fir) plantation in the southern forest area and the (Larix spp.) (larch) plantation in the northern forest area as examples, the revised Faustmann-Hartman model was used as the theoretical basis. The forest growth model and formula of forestry carbon sequestration supply were used to calculate the optimal rotation age and expected values, before comparing the differences.【Result】(1) Regardless of the tree species and site conditions, inclusion of carbon sequestration income into the management target increased the expected value of forestland. (2) When the carbon price was 35 yuan/t with an interest rate of 5%, the carbon sequestration income was included in the forest land management target, with the optimal rotation age extended by less than one year. When the only carbon sequestration income was considered, the income of the forest carbon increased alongside the extension of the rotation age. (3) When the carbon price fluctuated within the range of 0-125 yuan/t, the optimal rotation age of Chinese fir changed by 2-3 years, the optimal rotation age of larch remained unchanged, whilst there was no obvious change in the expected maximum forest land value.【Conclusion】(1) Carbon sequestration management of plantations was beneficial for the forest land investment. (2) Under the current management intensity and carbon price, the carbon prices are much lower than wood prices, and hence, when the carbon sequestration income is included in the forestland management target, the management strategy would not change significantly. On considering only the benefits of the carbon sequestration, benefits were greatest when deforestation was not considered. (3) When carbon prices changed at a lower level, the impact on the optimal rotation age was insignificant.
林业碳汇 / 人工林 / 最优轮伐期 / 森林管理 / Faustmann公式
forest carbon sequestration / plantation / optimal rotation age / forest managements / Faustmann formula
[1] |
IPCC. Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014.
|
[2] |
邓旭, 谢俊, 滕飞. 何谓 “碳中和”?[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(1):107-113.
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
李海奎, 雷渊才, 曾伟生. 基于森林清查资料的中国森林植被碳储量[J]. 林业科学, 2011, 47(7):7-12.
|
[5] |
陈家新, 杨红强. 全球森林及林产品碳科学研究进展与前瞻[J]. 南京林业大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 42(4):1-8.
|
[6] |
|
[7] |
|
[8] |
|
[9] |
|
[10] |
|
[11] |
|
[12] |
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
|
[15] |
|
[16] |
|
[17] |
|
[18] |
|
[19] |
|
[20] |
|
[21] |
|
[22] |
|
[23] |
张楠, 宁卓, 杨红强. 弗斯曼模型及其广义改进:基于林地期望值评估方法学演进[J]. 林业经济, 2020, 42(10):3-15.
|
[24] |
简盖元, 冯亮明, 刘伟平. 基于碳汇价值的森林最优轮伐期分析[J]. 林业经济问题, 2011, 31(1):70-75.
|
[25] |
朱臻, 沈月琴, 徐志刚, 等. 森林经营主体的碳汇供给潜力差异及影响因素研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2014, 29(12):2013-2022.
|
[26] |
周伟, 高岚. 森林碳汇收益的实证分析:以广东省杉木林为例[J]. 科技管理研究, 2015, 35(2):219-223.
|
[27] |
朱玮强, 顾蕾. 碳汇目标下森林经营决策:以江西省杉木林为例[J]. 林业资源管理, 2017(3):41-45,55.
|
[28] |
黄宰胜, 陈钦. 基于造林成本法的林业碳汇成本收益影响因素分析[J]. 资源科学, 2016, 38(3):485-492.
|
[29] |
贺晓波, 王冬梅, 曾诗鸿. 附碳汇收益的林业投资项目价值评估:基于实物期权定价理论[J]. 中国管理科学, 2017, 25(3):39-48.
|
[30] |
曹先磊. 碳交易机制下造林碳汇项目投资时机与投资期权价值分析[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(5):825-839.
|
[31] |
苏蕾, 潘明月, 陈丽荣. 二叉树期权定价模式评估林业碳汇项目的价值[J]. 林业经济问题, 2020, 40(1):8-13.
|
[32] |
|
[33] |
赵阳. 落叶松人工林经济成熟龄的研究[J]. 林业勘查设计, 2016(2):54-56.
|
[34] |
姚丹阳. 塞罕坝华北落叶松人工林初植密度对生产力的影响研究[J]. 河北林业科技, 2015(1):27-29,36.
|
[35] |
王森. 落叶松造林及幼林抚育技术研究[J]. 种子科技, 2021, 39(5):86-87.
|
[36] |
沈月琴, 王枫, 张耀启, 等. 中国南方杉木森林碳汇供给的经济分析[J]. 林业科学, 2013, 49(9):140-147.
|
[37] |
官波, 施择. 集体森林资源生态产权界定研究[J]. 环境保护, 2016, 44(9):44-46.
|
[38] |
|
[39] |
|
[40] |
宁可. 农户和国有林场碳汇供给差异及影响因素研究:基于南方集体林区三省杉木调查[D]. 杭州: 浙江农林大学, 2015:1-69.
|
[41] |
严风翔. 内蒙古大青山华北落叶松人工林生长模型研究[J]. 内蒙古林业科技, 2013, 39(4):1-4.
|
[42] |
周国模, 郭仁鉴, 韦新良, 等. 浙江省杉木人工林生长模型及主伐年龄的确定[J]. 浙江林学院学报, 2001, 18(3):219-222.
|
[43] |
吴载璋, 吴锡麟. 福建杉木人工林生长模型的研究[J]. 福建林业科技, 2004, 31(4):11-14.
|
[44] |
陈则生. 杉木人工林经济成熟龄的研究[J]. 华东森林经理, 2004, 18(3):1-5,14.
|
[45] |
刘红梅, 吕世杰, 刘清泉, 等. 华北落叶松林分生长模型模拟与预测研究[J]. 内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版), 2016, 37(3):32-36.
|
[46] |
李兵兵, 原民龙, 贾彦龙, 等. 华北落叶松人工林生长规律研究[J]. 河北农业大学学报, 2012, 35(2):60-64,71.
|
[47] |
刘芳, 钱栋. 华北落叶松生长分析[J]. 河北林业科技, 2015(2):50-51,60.
|
[48] |
王勇, 王鑫梅, 牟洪香, 等. 哑变量在燕山地区华北落叶松人工林生长模型中的应用[J]. 东北林业大学学报, 2014, 42(10):44-49,64.
|
[49] |
田奥. 六盘山半湿润区华北落叶松人工林的多种功能时空变化与优化管理[D]. 北京: 中国林业科学研究院, 2019:62-87.
|
[50] |
朱向辉, 汪传佳, 王仁东, 等. CDM-ARP杉木林碳汇监测方法学研究[J]. 浙江林学院学报, 2008, 25(3):336-341.
|
[51] |
马钦彦, 陈遐林, 王娟, 等. 华北主要森林类型建群种的含碳率分析[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2002, 24(5):100-104.
|
[52] |
黄小男. 六盘山华北落叶松人工林生物量对立地条件和林分结构的响应与模拟[D]. 北京: 北京林业大学, 2020:17-24.
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |