【目的】土地利用变化必然改变生态系统结构进而导致生态系统服务价值产生变化。探究江苏省长时间序列的生态系统服务价值与土地利用变化的关系,为江苏省生态可持续发展与土地利用规划管理提供科学依据。【方法】以江苏省为研究区,基于1980—2020年每隔10 a的各市土地利用数据,建立土地利用转移矩阵,分析江苏省土地利用变化特征。采用单位面积价值当量法计算不同时期江苏省各地级市及不同区域的生态系统服务价值;借助GIS技术进行生态系统服务价值空间插值分析(IDW),分析江苏省生态系统服务价值时空动态;利用弹性系数计算土地利用变化率以及生态系统服务价值变化率比值,揭示土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的响应规律。【结果】1980—2020年的土地利用转移矩阵结果显示,江苏省土地转出量最大的是耕地,转入量最大的是建设用地,其中土地利用转移最主要的方式是耕地转为建设用地。基于单位面积价值法计算结果表明,研究期内江苏省总生态系统服务价值呈上升趋势,不同生态系统服务类型中,水文调节价值最大,水资源供给价值最小。从不同城市角度来看,苏州、盐城、淮安的总生态系统服务价值较高,空间插值分析结果显示,江苏省总生态系统服务价值在长时间序列中表现出明显的连续性与差异性,总体呈现东高西低、南高北低的特征。弹性系数结果显示,高弹性值的区域相对主要集聚于东部沿海,中弹性值的区域相对广泛呈片状分布,低弹性值的区域分布相对分散。【结论】江苏省土地利用变化显著,生态系统服务高值分布与土地利用类型覆盖面积以及生态系统服务价值系数有重要关系,土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值产生影响,同时决定了生态系统服务价值的弹性变化。生态系统服务价值的系数越高,其对土地利用变化越敏感。

【Objective】Land-use change has an important impact on ecosystem service values. Affected by natural climate change and human activities, land-use in Jiangsu Province has undergone dramatic changes, and changes in the ecosystem structure have led to changes in ecosystem service values. By exploring the relationship between the long-term sequence of ecosystem service values and land-use changes in Jiangsu Province, this study provides a scientific basis for sustainable ecological development and land-use planning and management in Jiangsu Province.【Method】 Taking Jiangsu as the research areas, based on the land-use data of each city from 1980 to 2020, the land use transfer matrix was established to analyze the characteristics of land-use changes in Jiangsu Province. The unit area value equivalent method was used to calculate the ecosystem service values of the prefecture-level cities and regions in Jiangsu Province in different periods. Spatial interpolation analysis of ecosystem service values was conducted using GIS technology to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem service values in Jiangsu Province. The elastic coefficient was used to calculate the ratio of the rate of change in land use to the rate of change in ecosystem service values to explore the response of ecosystem service values to land-use changes. 【Result】The amount of cultivated land transferred out was the largest from 1980 to 2020, and the amount of construction land transferred in was the largest. The conversion of cultivated land to construction land is the most important way of land-use transfer in Jiangsu Province, and wetlands are mainly converted to cultivated land. The calculation results based on the unit area value method show that the total ecosystem service value of Jiangsu Province keeps increasing. During the study period, the hydrological regulation value was the largest and the water supply value was the smallest for different ecosystem service types. From the perspective of different cities, the total ecosystem service values of Suzhou, Yancheng and Huai'an were relatively high. The results of the spatial interpolation analysis showed that the total ecosystem service values of Jiangsu Province had obvious continuity and differences over a long time series, which was generally high in the east and low in the west, and high in the south and low in the north. The elastic coefficient results showed that regions with high elastic values were mainly located in the eastern coastal area, regions with medium elastic values were relatively widely distributed as flakes, and regions with low elastic values were relatively dispersed. 【Conclusion】The land-use change in Jiangsu Province was significant. The distribution of high value ecosystem services has an important relationship with the coverage of land-use types and ecosystem service value coefficients. Land-use changes affect the value of ecosystem services and simultaneously determine the elastic changes in ecosystem service values. The higher the ecosystem service value coefficient, the more sensitive the ecosystem service value is to land-use changes.