引入反哺机制的林纸绿色供应链多主体利益分配的动力学仿真研究

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110056

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 217-224.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110056

引入反哺机制的林纸绿色供应链多主体利益分配的动力学仿真研究

岳庆如¹^,²(), 张智光¹^,^*()

1.南京林业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京 210037
2.金陵科技学院商学院,江苏南京 211169

收稿日期:2021-10-29 修回日期:2022-02-21 出版日期:2023-05-30 发布日期:2023-05-25
通讯作者: 张智光
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71673136);江苏高校哲学社会科学基金项目(2018SJA0471)

Dynamic simulation of multi-agent benefit distributions in the forest paper green supply chain with back-feeding mechanisms

YUE Qingru¹^,²(), ZHANG Zhiguang¹^,^*()

1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037,China
2. Business College, Jinling University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211169,China

Received:2021-10-29 Revised:2022-02-21 Online:2023-05-30 Published:2023-05-25
Contact: ZHANG Zhiguang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】引入供应链的反哺机制,考虑造纸主体、营销主体对营林主体进行利益反哺,探索林纸绿色供应链利益有效分配和稳定共生发展的新路径。【方法】基于系统动力学理论构建林纸绿色供应链合作联盟,绘制因果关系图,提取相关变量绘制系统流图,测算相关变量值并设计变量方程式。设计多个利益反哺方案,通过动力学模型仿真分析林纸绿色供应链整体与个体效益变化趋势。【结果】利益反哺方案下,林纸绿色供应链整体经济效益、生态效益与个体效益均高于未反哺方案。从个体效益角度出发,倾向选择造纸等主体对营林主体逐年10%共生收益的持续要素反哺固定比例Ⅰ方案,以及造纸等主体对营林主体反哺比例逐年变化反哺比例偏低的变动比例Ⅰ(变动比例分别为20%、16%、12%、8%、4%)方案;从整体效益角度出发,倾向选择造纸等主体对营林主体反哺比例逐年变化反哺比例偏高的变动比例Ⅱ(变动比例分别为30%、25%、20%、15%、10%)方案。【结论】反哺方案总体优于不反哺方案。从林纸绿色供应链整体效益角度出发,反哺比例越高,效益越高。从林纸绿色供应链个体效益角度出发,反哺比例相接近时,变动比例方案优于固定比例方案。从林纸绿色供应链个体效益角度出发,反哺比例不宜过高。在选择方案过程中,应由核心企业牵头,多主体共同参与商讨,选定一个多方满意的方案。

关键词: 林纸绿色供应链, 利益分配, 反哺机制, 系统动力学, 超循环经济

Abstract:

【Objective】This study introduces the back-feeding mechanism, considers the benefit of back feeding for paper making and marketing subjects to forest management subjects, and explores a new path of effective benefit distribution and stable symbiotic development of a green supply chain for forest to the paper.【Method】Based on the theory of system dynamics, the forest to the paper green supply chain is built as a cooperation alliance, and the causality diagram is drawn, with relevant variables extracted, the system flow diagram drawn, the values of relevant variables calculated and the variable equation designed. Multiple benefit feedback proportion schemes are designed, and the change trend of the overall and individual benefits of the forest to the paper green supply chain are analyzed through a dynamic model simulation.【Result】Under the benefit feedback schemes, the overall economic, ecological, and individual benefits of the forest to paper green supply chain were higher than those of the non-feedback scheme. From the perspective of individual benefits, it is preferable to choose the fixed proportion Ⅰ scheme in which papermaking and other entities feed back the sustainable elements of 10% of the symbiotic income of the forest management entities annually, rather than the variable Ⅰ (20%,16%,12%,8%,4%) proportion scheme, in which papermaking and other entities feed back the forest management entities annually, and the proportion of back-feeding is low. From the perspective of overall benefits, the scheme of variable proportion Ⅱ (30%,25%,20%,15%,10%) is preferred, where the proportion of back-feeding of papermaking and other entities to the main body of forest management changes annually, and the proportion of back-feeding is high.【Conclusion】The back-feeding scheme is better than the non back-feeding scheme. From the perspective of the overall benefits of the green supply chain for forest to paper, the higher the proportion of back-feeding, the greater the benefit. From the perspective of the individual benefits of the green supply chain, when the back-feeding proportion is close to the scenario, the variable-proportion scheme is better than the fixed-proportion scheme. From the perspective of the individual benefits, the proportion of back-feeding should not be too high. While selecting a scheme, the core enterprise takes the lead, and multiple subjects participate in the discussion to select a satisfactory scheme.

Key words: forest paper green supply chain, distribution of benefits, back-feeding mechanism, system dynamics, hypercycle economy

中图分类号:

F205

岳庆如,张智光. 引入反哺机制的林纸绿色供应链多主体利益分配的动力学仿真研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(3): 217-224.

YUE Qingru, ZHANG Zhiguang. Dynamic simulation of multi-agent benefit distributions in the forest paper green supply chain with back-feeding mechanisms[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2023, 47(3): 217-224.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110056.

图/表 6

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变量variable	含义meaning	变量variable	含义meaning
A_a/hm²	造林面积afforestation area	M_ei/万元	营销主体收入marketing entities income
C_etv/万元	排碳权交易额 trading volume of carbon emission rights	O_pp/t	纸产品产量 output of paper product
E_tv/万元	排污权交易额 emissions trading volume	P_ui/(万元·t^-1)	浆单位收入 pulp unit income
F_rti/万元	林权交易收入 income from forest right transaction	P_y/t	浆产量 pulp yield
F_epc/万元	营林企业制浆成本 pulp cost of forest entities	P_fme/%	营销对营林反哺比例 proportion of feedback from marketing entities
G_raa/(hm²·a^-1)	造林面积增长率 growth rate of afforestation area	P_fpe/%	造纸对营林反哺比例 proportion of feedback from paper making entities
I_fme/万元	营林主体收入 income of forest making entities	F_vpm/万元	造纸对营林利益反哺值 benefit feedback value from paper making entities
I_ai/万元	行业平均收益 industry average income	F_vme/万元	营销对营林利益反哺值 benefit feedback value from marketing entities
I_dms/万元	营销主体分配的共生收益 income distributed by marketing entities	S_i/万元	共生收益 symbiotic income
I_dps/万元	造纸主体分配的共生收益 income distributed by paper making entities	S_p/(万元·t^-1)	销售价格 selling price
I_pme/万元	造纸主体收入income of paper making entities	U_cp/(万元·t^-1)	浆单位成本unit cost of pulp
M_fai/(hm²·a^-1)	成熟林面积增量 area increment of mature forest	U_ipp/(万元·t^-1)	纸产品单位收入 unit income of paper products
M_ci/万元	多主体共同收益multi-agent common income	U_cpp/(万元·t^-1)	纸产品单位成本unit cost of paper products

主体 entity	步长/a step size	收益/万元 income
主体 entity	步长/a step size	2015年	2020年	2025年	2030年	2035年	2040年	2045年	2050年
	1.00	1.10×10⁶	1.20×10⁶	1.29×10⁶	1.40×10⁶	1.51×10⁶	1.63×10⁶	1.75×10⁶	1.89×10⁶
造纸 paper mabing	0.50	1.10×10⁶	1.20×10⁶	1.29×10⁶	1.40×10⁶	1.51×10⁶	1.63×10⁶	1.76×10⁶	1.90×10⁶
	0.25	1.10×10⁶	1.20×10⁶	1.29×10⁶	1.40×10⁶	1.51×10⁶	1.63×10⁶	1.76×10⁶	1.90×10⁶
	1.00	3.71×10⁵	4.03×10⁵	4.36×10⁵	4.71×10⁵	5.08×10⁵	5.48×10⁵	5.91×10⁵	6.37×10⁵
营林 forest making	0.50	3.71×10⁵	4.03×10⁵	4.36×10⁵	4.71×10⁵	5.08×10⁵	5.49×10⁵	5.92×10⁵	6.38×10⁵
	0.25	3.71×10⁵	4.03×10⁵	4.36×10⁵	4.71×10⁵	5.09×10⁵	5.49×10⁵	5.92×10⁵	6.39×10⁵
	1.00	2.83×10⁶	3.07×10⁶	3.33×10⁶	3.59×10⁶	3.87×10⁶	4.18×10⁶	4.51×10⁶	4.86×10⁶
营销 markerting	0.50	2.83×10⁶	3.07×10⁶	3.33×10⁶	3.59×10⁶	3.88×10⁶	4.19×10⁶	4.52×10⁶	4.87×10⁶
	0.25	2.83×10⁶	3.07×10⁶	3.33×10⁶	3.59×10⁶	3.88×10⁶	4.19×10⁶	4.52×10⁶	4.88×10⁶
	1.00	7.97×10⁶	8.65×10⁶	9.36×10⁶	1.01×10⁷	1.09×10⁷	1.17×10⁷	1.26×10⁷	1.36×10⁷
多主体 multi-agent common	0.50	7.97×10⁶	8.65×10⁶	9.36×10⁶	1.01×10⁷	1.09×10⁷	1.17×10⁷	1.25×10⁷	1.37×10⁷
	0.25	7.97×10⁶	8.65×10⁶	9.36×10⁶	1.01×10⁷	1.09×10⁷	1.17×10⁷	1.27×10⁷	1.37×10⁷

引入反哺机制的林纸绿色供应链多主体利益分配的动力学仿真研究

Dynamic simulation of multi-agent benefit distributions in the forest paper green supply chain with back-feeding mechanisms

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模拟反哺方案 simulated back-feeding scheme	反哺比例/% back-feeding ratio
模拟反哺方案 simulated back-feeding scheme	2015年	2020年	2030年	2040年	2050年
不反哺non-refeeding scheme	0	0	0	0	0
固定反哺比例Ⅰ fixed back-feeding ratio scheme Ⅰ	10	10	10	10	10
固定反哺比例Ⅱ fixed back-feeding ratio scheme Ⅱ	20	20	20	20	20
变动反哺比例Ⅰ scheme of changing the proportion of back-feeding Ⅰ	20	16	12	8	4
变动反哺比例Ⅱ scheme of changing the proportion of back-feeding Ⅱ	30	25	20	15	10

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