近30年千岛湖流域产水量时空变化及其影响因子分析

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202111028

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3): 111-119.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202111028

近30年千岛湖流域产水量时空变化及其影响因子分析

朱志洪¹^,²(), 周本智¹^,^*(), 王懿祥², 祁军³, 李爱博¹, 黄润霞¹

1.中国林业科学研究院亚热带林业研究所,浙江杭州 311400
2.浙江农林大学环境与资源学院, 浙江杭州 311300
3.上海春沁生态园林建设股份有限公司,上海 201210

收稿日期:2021-11-16 修回日期:2022-04-28 出版日期:2023-05-30 发布日期:2023-05-25
通讯作者: 周本智
基金资助:
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(CAFYBB2019ZD001)

Spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors of water yield in the Thousand-Island Lake basin in the past 30 years

ZHU Zhihong¹^,²(), ZHOU Benzhi¹^,^*(), WANG Yixiang², QI Jun³, LI Aibo¹, HUANG Runxia¹

1. Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Hangzhou 311400, China
2. School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China
3. Shanghai Chunqin Ecological Garden Construction Limited Liability Company, Shanghai 201210, China

Received:2021-11-16 Revised:2022-04-28 Online:2023-05-30 Published:2023-05-25
Contact: ZHOU Benzhi

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】千岛湖流域是长江三角洲重要的水源地和生态屏障区,研究其水源供给服务对长江三角洲生态保护和社会经济高质量可持续发展有着重要的意义。【方法】基于InVEST模型对千岛湖流域近30年的产水量进行量化,并通过情景分析法和地理探测器探究其时空变化特征以及空间分异的主要影响因子。【结果】1995-2019年,千岛湖流域产水量与降水量的年际变化具有一致性,表现为前期大幅度减小后明显增大再略微减小的波动变化趋势,空间分布格局变化不大, 产水高值区主要集中在流域西部,低值区则集中在流域东部湖区范围内;不同土地利用类型中,建筑用地的平均产水量最高,草地次之,林地和水体的平均产水量最低;气候变化对产水量的影响较为显著,土地利用变化对产水量的影响较低;实际蒸散量是产水量空间分布格局的主要驱动因子,土地利用类型次之,实际蒸散量与降水的交互作用最为显著。【结论】流域产水量是气候、土地利用类型等多种因子共同作用的结果,在未来的生态建设和环境保护中,需要综合考虑地形、气候和人类活动的变化对千岛湖流域产水服务的影响。

关键词: 产水量, InVEST模型, 地理探测器, 土地利用, 千岛湖流域

Abstract:

【Objective】The Thousand-Island Lake basin is an important water conservation and ecological barrier area in the Yangtze River Delta. Thus, the study of water supply services is of great significance to ecological protection and high-quality sustainable development of the social economy. 【Method】The water yield of the Thousand-Island Lake basin was quantified over a six-year period: 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2019 based on the InVEST model, and water yield spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors were explored using the scenario and geodetector analyses.【Result】From 1995 to 2019, water yield inter-annual variations in the Thousand-Island Lake basin was consistent with precipitation trends; that is the water yield decreased significantly from 1995 to 2005, increased significantly from 2005 to 2015, and showed a subsequent marginal decrease from 2015 to 2019. Spatial distribution patterns showed little variation over the study period; however, patterns were high in the west of the basin and low in the basin’s eastern lake. The average water yield of buildings was higher than that of other land use types, followed by grasslands and woodland; water bodies had the lowest average water yield. Precipitation had a stronger effect on water yield than that of land use changes, which was significant. Actual evapotranspiration was the main driving factor of water spatial patterns, followed by land use types. The interaction between actual evapotranspiration and rainfall was the most significant than others. 【Conclusion】The water yield is the result of a combination of factors including climate and land use types. For the future ecological construction and environmental protection, the impact of terrain, climate, and human activities on water yield services must be considered and comprehensively studied.

Key words: water yield, InVEST model, geodetector, land use, Thousand-Island Lake basin

中图分类号:

Q148
S757

朱志洪,周本智,王懿祥,等. 近30年千岛湖流域产水量时空变化及其影响因子分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(3): 111-119.

ZHU Zhihong, ZHOU Benzhi, WANG Yixiang, QI Jun, LI Aibo, HUANG Runxia. Spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors of water yield in the Thousand-Island Lake basin in the past 30 years[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2023, 47(3): 111-119.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202111028.

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1995	2019
1995	水体 water area	建筑用地 construction land	农田 farm land	未利用地 unused land	草地 grass land	林地 forest land	合计 total
水体water area	442.12	4.73	14.20	0.02	0.07	16.74	477.88
建筑用地construction land	0.22	9.31	6.93	0.22	0.01	6.22	22.92
农田 farm land	6.71	16.01	112.85	1.20	2.18	99.13	238.07
未利用地unused land	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0.01
草地grass land	0	0.22	0.01	0	0	0.91	1.16
林地forestland	1.95	20.41	7.89	0.51	3.56	3 751.65	3 785.96
合计total	451.00	50.68	141.88	1.96	5.82	3 874.67	4 526.01

年份 year	平均产水量/mm water yield	产水总量/×10⁸ m³ total water production	降水量/mm precipitation
1995	1 387.04	62.78	1 890.36
2000	863.21	39.07	1 364.43
2005	652.61	29.54	1 191.02
2010	1 466.52	66.38	1 944.52
2015	1 738.37	78.67	2 183.63
2019	1 247.56	56.47	1 777.51

情景 scenarios	变化量/mm variation quantity	贡献度/% contribution degree
情景1 scenario 1	-739.17	100.50
情景2 scenario 2	597.53	100.45
情景3 scenario 3	3.64	-0.50
情景4 scenario 4	-2.66	-0.45

情景 scenarios	产水总量/×10⁸ m³ total water production	产水总量变化量/×10⁸ m³ change of total water production
情景5 scenario 5	56.60	0.13
情景6 scenario 6	56.29	-0.17
情景7 scenario 7	56.36	-0.11
情景8 scenario 8	56.42	-0.04

年份 year	实际蒸散量 actual evapotranspiration	潜在蒸散量 potential evapotranspiration	降水量 precipitation	土地利用 land use	坡向 aspect	海拔 elevation	坡度 slope
1995	0.84	0.33	0.37	0.63	0.13	0.05	0.06
2000	0.96	0.20	0.22	0.82	0.13	0.03	0.06
2005	0.97	0.18	0.16	0.86	0.14	0.02	0.08
2010	0.68	0.05	0.46	0.64	0.10	0.03	0.04
2015	0.8	0.46	0.45	0.64	0.11	0.02	0.03
2019	0.95	0.05	0.13	0.89	0.13	0.01	0.03
平均mean	0.87	0.21	0.30	0.75	0.13	0.03	0.05

近30年千岛湖流域产水量时空变化及其影响因子分析

Spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors of water yield in the Thousand-Island Lake basin in the past 30 years

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影响因子 factor	实际蒸散量 actual evapotranspiration	潜在蒸散量 potential evapotranspiration	降水量 precipitation	土地利用 land use	坡向 aspect	海拔 elevation	坡度 slope
实际蒸散量actual evapotranspiration	0.865 7
潜在蒸散量potential evapotranspiration	0.936 4	0.213 1
降水量precipitation	0.995 5	0.508 2	0.298 5
土地利用land use	0.874 2	0.862 3	0.916 1	0.747 1
坡向aspect	0.913 1	0.518 7	0.579 5	0.787 1	0.125 2
海拔elevation	0.904 6	0.319 0	0.412 7	0.771 2	0.241 8	0.025 9
坡度slope	0.897 3	0.352 6	0.469 7	0.774 2	0.287 5	0.142 7	0.047 9

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