相对视角下森林碳汇项目农村经济福利效应

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202111036

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 253-261.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202111036

相对视角下森林碳汇项目农村经济福利效应

罗顺兰¹^,³(), 胡原²^,³^,^*(), 曾维忠²^,³, 郑雯雪⁴

1.四川农业大学经济学院,四川成都 611130
2.四川农业大学管理学院,四川成都 611130
3.四川农业大学西部乡村振兴研究中心,四川成都 611130
4.成都市农林科学院,四川成都 611130

收稿日期:2021-11-22 修回日期:2022-02-21 出版日期:2023-07-30 发布日期:2023-07-20
通讯作者: * 胡原(huyuan@sicau.edu.cn),副教授。
作者简介:罗顺兰(605002189@qq.com)。
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(21YJA790002);四川省自然科学基金项目(2023NSFSC1060);四川省哲学社会科学规划项目(SC22ST10)

Rural economic welfare effects of forest carbon sink projects from a relative perspective

LUO Shunlan¹^,³(), HU Yuan²^,³^,^*(), ZENG Weizhong²^,³, ZHENG Wenxue⁴

1. College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
2. College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
3. Research Center of Western Rural Revitalization, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
4. Chengdu City Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Chengdu 611130, China

Received:2021-11-22 Revised:2022-02-21 Online:2023-07-30 Published:2023-07-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】绝对收入难以全面反映农村居民的经济福利,结合相对收入分析森林碳汇项目农村居民经济福利效应,并提出相应政策建议,以促进森林碳汇项目可持续健康运营。【方法】基于2007—2018年县域统计数据,以四川省为例,采用倾向得分匹配方法,实证测算森林碳汇项目试点县农村居民经济福利效应。【结果】在全样本分析中,相较于非试点县,森林碳汇项目试点县农村居民绝对收入水平普遍更低,乡乡比较表现出明显的福利损失;在异质性分析中,贫困县与民族县实施森林碳汇项目的农村居民经济福利效应为正。【结论】相对视角下实施森林碳汇项目导致农村主观经济福利受损,突出表现为乡乡比较。在贫困地区和民族地区实施森林碳汇项目能够降低城乡收入差距并提高纵向比较时的主观经济福利,从而产生积极的经济福利效应。

关键词: 森林碳汇, 农村经济, 相对视角

Abstract:

【Objective】 Absolute income does not fully reflect rural residents’ economic welfare. To address this, the present study analyzes the economic welfare effects of forest carbon sequestration projects on rural residents based on relative income. Using this information, we propose corresponding policy recommendations to promote the sustainable and healthy operation of forest carbon sequestration projects. 【Method】 Based on county statistics from 2007 to 2018 in the Sichuan Province, propensity score matching was used to empirically measure the economic welfare effects on rural residents within the pilot counties of the forest carbon sequestration project. 【Result】 In the full sample analysis, the absolute income level of rural residents in the pilot counties was generally lower compared with those in non-pilot counties, and the comparison between townships indicated obvious welfare losses; in the heterogeneity analysis, it appears that in ethnic minorities counties and poor counties implementation of forest carbon sequestration projects by rural residents produces a positive economic welfare effect. 【Conclusion】 On average, implementing forest carbon sequestration projects from the perspective of relative income led to a loss of subjective economic welfare in rural areas, as indicated by comparisons between townships. Taken together, the results suggest that implementing forest carbon sequestration projects in impoverished and ethnic minority areas can reduce the urban-rural income gap and improve economic welfare during vertical comparisons, thereby producing positive subjective economic welfare effects.

Key words: forest carbon sink, rural economy, comparative perspective

中图分类号:

F326.2

罗顺兰,胡原,曾维忠,等. 相对视角下森林碳汇项目农村经济福利效应[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2023, 47(4): 253-261.

LUO Shunlan, HU Yuan, ZENG Weizhong, ZHENG Wenxue. Rural economic welfare effects of forest carbon sink projects from a relative perspective[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2023, 47(4): 253-261.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202111036.

图/表 8

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表6

表7

考虑与不考虑相对因素下的森林碳汇项目试点县农村经济福利"

年份year
2007	7.895	7.187	8.97
2008	7.725	7.349	4.87
2009	7.839	7.496	4.38
2010	8.216	7.808	4.97
2011	8.463	7.886	6.81
2012	8.732	7.931	9.18
2013	8.424	8.067	4.24
2014	8.688	8.246	5.08
2015	8.857	8.387	5.31
2016	9.412	7.540	19.89
2017	9.078	8.550	5.81
2018	9.049	8.596	5.01

表7

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变量 variable	变量名称 variable name	变量说明及赋值 variable description and assignment	均值 mean	标准差 standard deviation
被解释变量 explained variable	农村居民收入	各县历年农村人均纯收入/元	8 119.01	4 399.21
	纵向比较	V₁	1.30	0.55
	横向乡乡比较	V₂	0	0.30
	横向城乡比较	V₃	0.61	0.14
核心解释变量 core explanatory variable	是否为森林碳汇项目试点县占比	是=1,否=0	0.09	0.29
特征变量 characteristic variable	是否为国家级贫困县占比	是=1,否=0	0.24	0.43
	是否为民族县占比	是=1,否=0	0.36	0.48
	人均GDP	各县人均GDP/元	23 000	15 000
	第一产业从业人数占总从业人数比重	第一产业从业人数与从业总人数之比	0.53	0.17
	农业机械总动力	农、林、牧、渔业的各种动力机械的动力总和/MW	20.63	16.03
	年末实有耕地面积占行政区域土地面积比重	年末实有耕地面积与行政区域土地面积之比	0.18	0.16
	化肥施用量	历年化肥施用量/t	13 687	14 165.41
	单位耕地面积粮食产量	粮食总产量与年末实有耕地面积之比/(t·hm^-2)	1.67	0.63
	单位行政面积公路里程	公路里程与单位行政面积之比/(km·hm^-2)	0.97	0.81

年份 year	农村居民收入效应 rural residents' income ATT	横向城乡比较效应 horizontal urban-rural comparison ATT	横向乡乡比较效应 horizontal township comparison ATT	纵向比较效应 longitudinal comparison ATT
2007	-824.352^**	0.027	-0.245^**	0
2008	-1 023.048^***	0.050	-0.267^***	-0.151
2009	-1 063.036^***	0.051	-0.255^***	-0.083
2010	-1 319.920^***	0.058	-0.265^***	-0.094
2011	-1 634.190^***	0.045	-0.270^***	-0.145
2012	-1 919.728^***	0.044	-0.273^***	-0.063
2013	-2 106.924^***	0.035	-0.263^***	-0.025
2014	-2 574.610^***	0.035	-0.278^***	-0.070
2015	-2 884.022^***	0.016	-0.263^***	-0.001
2016	-3 120.646^***	0.013	-0.259^***	-0.011
2017	-3 362.386^***	0.006	-0.255^***	-0.027
2018	-3 590.975^***	0.004	-0.248^***	-0.028

年份 year	处理效应ATT
年份 year	20 a	30 a
2007	-1 048.453^**	-854.045^**
2008	-1 493.886^**	-941.221^*
2009	-1 364.880^**	-1 089.084^**
2010	-1 573.212^**	-1 420.613^**
2011	-1 868.582^**	-1 785.940^**
2012	-2 089.464^**	-2 162.920^***
2013	-2 211.957^**	-2 416.793^***
2014	-2 621.350^**	-2 947.607^***
2015	-2 536.170^**	-3 552.185^***
2016	-2 712.890^**	-3 862.588^***
2017	-2 915.836^**	-4 166.617^***
2018	-3 105.092^**	-4 457.275^***

年份 year	农村居民收入效应 rural residents' income ATT		横向城乡比较效应 horizontal urban- rural comparison ATT		纵向比较效应 longitudinal comparison ATT
年份 year	贫困县 impoverished counties	非贫困县 non-poor county	贫困县 impoverished counties	非贫困县 non-poor county	贫困县 impoverished counties	非贫困县 non-poor county
2007	214.205	-723.939^*	-0.108	-0.017	0.279^***	-0.151^*
2008	179.987	-903.458^*	-0.086	-0.004	0.305^***	-0.061
2009	148.786	-953.194^*	-0.101^*	0.025	0.322^***	-0.131
2010	126.405	-1 174.298^*	-0.118^*	0.059	0.355^***	-0.162^*
2011	-31.905	-1 359.296^*	-0.114^**	0.044	0.402^***	-0.146^*
2012	-211.619	-1 556.093^**	-0.103^**	0.048	0.430^***	-0.151^*
2013	-354.857	-1 642.653^**	-0.104^**	0.043	0.425^***	-0.150^*
2014	-462.143	-2 034.755^**	-0.105^**	0.048	0.459^***	-0.153^*
2015	-1 400.405^***	-2 106.199^**	-0.097^**	0.036	0.471^***	-0.160^*
2016	-1 571.214^***	-2 266.547^**	-0.098^**	0.035	0.467^***	-0.159^*
2017	-1 689.976^***	-2 453.550^**	-0.091^**	0.026	0.461^***	-0.155^*
2018	—	-2 629.486^**	—	0.025	—	-0.152^*

年份 year	农村居民收入效应 rural residents' income ATT		横向城乡比较效应 horizontal urban rural comparison ATT		纵向比较效应 longitudinal comparison ATT
年份 year	民族县 minority county	非民族县 non-ethnic county	民族县 minority county	非民族县 non-ethnic county	民族县 minority county	非民族县 non-ethnic county
2007	116.769	—	-0.079	—	0.181^***	-0.136
2008	-34.694	-1 023.405^**	-0.039	-0.070	0.227^***	-0.221^*
2009	48.497	-1 353.589^***	-0.060	0.010	0.226^***	-0.257^**
2010	0.492	-1 661.640^***	-0.052	0.047	0.245^***	-0.228^**
2011	-168.178	-1 934.416^***	-0.069^*	0.048	0.273^***	-0.211^**
2012	-405.778	-2 231.039^***	-0.05	0.048	0.282^***	-0.195^*
2013	-557.642	-2 453.772^***	-0.053	0.052	0.265^***	—
2014	-697.038	—	-0.053	—	0.282^***	-0.193
2015	-1 312.675^*	-3 183.157^**	-0.056	0.057	0.290^***	-0.190
2016	-1 473.906^**	-3 416.042^**	-0.058	0.058	0.286^***	-0.188
2017	-1 641.233^**	-3 644.308^**	-0.064^*	0.055	0.280^***	-0.185
2018	-1 766.656^**	-3 885.644^**	-0.063^*	0.053	0.270^***	—

相对视角下森林碳汇项目农村经济福利效应

Rural economic welfare effects of forest carbon sink projects from a relative perspective

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年份 year	横向城乡比较 horizontal urban- rural comparison	横向乡乡比较 horizontal township comparison	纵向比较 longitudinal comparison
2007	0.67	0.25	1.00
2008	0.69	0.28	1.11
2009	0.71	0.26	1.10
2010	0.70	0.26	1.18
2011	0.67	0.27	1.20
2012	0.67	0.27	1.16
2013	0.65	0.26	1.15
2014	0.63	0.27	1.14
2015	0.57	0.26	1.21
2016	0.56	0.25	1.09
2017	0.55	0.25	1.10
2018	0.54	0.24	1.11

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[2]	曾维忠,成蓥,杨帆. 基于CDM碳汇造林再造林项目的森林碳汇扶贫绩效评价指标体系研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 42(04): 9-17.
[3]	陈家新,杨红强. 全球森林及林产品碳科学研究进展与前瞻[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2018, 42(04): 1-8.