基于CMIP 6多模式的长江流域气温、降水与径流预估

何旭; 缪子梅; 田佳西; 杨柳; 张增信; 朱斌

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

何旭, 缪子梅, 田佳西, 杨柳, 张增信, 朱斌

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2) : 1-8.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2) : 1-8. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

专题报道Ⅰ: 山水林田湖草沙一体化保护———湿地生态研究专题（执行主编张金池薛建辉）

基于CMIP 6多模式的长江流域气温、降水与径流预估

何旭 ¹ ,
缪子梅 ¹^,^* ,
田佳西 ² ,
杨柳 ¹ ,
张增信 ¹ ,
朱斌 ¹

作者信息 +

Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model

HE Xu ¹ ,
MIAO Zimei ¹^,^* ,
TIAN Jiaxi ² ,
YANG Liu ¹ ,
ZHANG Zengxin ¹ ,
ZHU Bin ¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

【目的】探究未来气候变化对长江流域径流的影响,为长江流域及其他地区的早期洪水预警和防御措施提供依据。【方法】采用国际耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP 6)多模式集合平均(MME),结合SWAT水文模型,对长江流域1961—2014年气温、降水量和径流等进行评估,并预估了长江流域2020—2099年SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5排放情景下的气温、降水量和径流。【结果】 ①相比单一模式,MME历史时期模拟气温和降水效果更好,与观测值的相关系数均大于0.90,MME可以很好地模拟出气温和降水量的空间分布规律。②由MME分析可知,2020—2099年长江流域在所有情景下的气温增幅低于50%,降水增量小于20%,在SSP5-8.5情景下模拟的温度值比SSP1-1.9时的温度值高1.23 ℃,比SSP1-2.6时的温度值高0.99 ℃。③总体上,长江流域未来的年均径流量增加显著,到21世纪末,SSP5-5.8情景下年均径流量将达到40 380 m³/s。【结论】本研究揭示了长江流域径流变化趋势与气温与降水之间的相互关系,以及模拟未来气候变化的准确度,同时认为未来长江流域气温、降水量与径流量均呈上升趋势,低碳排放情景下的洪涝灾害相对较少,可为以后长江流域洪涝灾害的预估和区域性气候变化提供依据。

Abstract

【Objective】 This research aims to explore the impact of future climate change on predicted runoff trends in the Yangtze River basin and provide a basis for early flood warning and prevention measures in the Yangtze River basin and other regions. 【Method】 Temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin from 1961 to 2014 were evaluated by using the multi-mode set average (MME) of the international coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP 6) and the SWAT hydrological model and predicted under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios from 2020 to 2099.【Result】 (1) Compared with the single model, MME showed better performance in simulating temperature and precipitation during historical periods, with a correlation coefficient with the observation value was >0.90. Further, MME simulated the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation well. (2) The MME analysis showed that during 2020 and 2099, temperature and precipitation increases in the Yangtze River basin under all scenarios were <50% and <20%, respectively. Simulated temperature under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was 1.23 ℃ higher than that under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and 0.99 ℃ higher than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. (3) Overall, future annual runoff of the entire Yangtze River basin increased significantly and reached 40 380 m³/s under the SSP5-5.8 scenario at the end of the 21st century.【Conclusion】 Temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin are predicted to increase in the future, whereas flood disasters under low emission scenarios are relatively less likely.

导出引用

何旭, 缪子梅, 田佳西, 等. 基于CMIP 6多模式的长江流域气温、降水与径流预估[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）. 2024, 48(2): 1-8 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

HE Xu, MIAO Zimei, TIAN Jiaxi, et al. Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(2): 1-8 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

中图分类号： P467

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