经济增长对森林破碎化的影响——以中国京津冀地区为例

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202204051

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1): 227-236.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202204051

经济增长对森林破碎化的影响——以中国京津冀地区为例

罗奕奕(), 李凌超, 程宝栋()

北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083

收稿日期:2022-04-21 修回日期:2022-06-28 出版日期:2024-01-30 发布日期:2024-01-24
通讯作者: 程宝栋
基金资助:
北京市社会科学基金项目(18GLC060)

The impact of economic growth on forest fragmentation: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China

LUO Yiyi(), LI Lingchao, CHENG Baodong()

School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083,China

Received:2022-04-21 Revised:2022-06-28 Online:2024-01-30 Published:2024-01-24
Contact: CHENG Baodong

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】研究京津冀地区经济增长对森林资源造成的影响及其内在影响机制,为该地区进一步实现经济与生态的协调可持续发展提供参考。【方法】以京津冀地区为例,通过2000—2018年卫星遥感影像数据测度京津冀地区38个样本县的森林破碎化程度,采用森林转型理论、土地利用变化理论以及生长轴理论等构建经济增长、交通基础设施建设以及森林破碎化三者间的中介效应模型,并进行实证检验。【结果】经济增长水平与京津冀地区森林破碎化程度关系,同一时期内,经济增长水平每提高1%,森林破碎化程度的加深超过3%;经济增长水平与京津冀地区的交通基础设施建设关系表明,经济增长水平每提高1%,京津冀地区的公路密度的增长量超过0.1%;交通基础设施建设与京津冀地区的森林破碎化关系表明,每提高1个单位的公路密度将使得该地区增加超过4个森林斑块。作用机制检验表明,在经济增长对森林破碎化产生影响的路径中,交通基础设施建设存在显著的中介作用,其中介程度为23.255%。【结论】经济增长水平的提高对京津冀地区森林破碎化程度的提高具有显著的正向影响。经济增长水平的提高能够有效地促进交通基础设施建设,提高道路的分布密度。交通基础设施的建设对地区森林破碎化程度的加深具有显著的正向影响。在经济增长的过程中将通过交通基础设施建设这一中介要素对森林破碎化产生影响。

关键词: 经济增长, 森林破碎化, 交通基础设施, 中介效应, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

【Objective】The degree of forest fragmentation in 38 sample counties in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was measured through satellite image data from 2000 to 2018. The impact of regional economic growth on forest resources was studied, and its internal impact mechanism was explored. The results provide a reference for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region to further realize a coordinated plan for sustainable development and environmental protection. 【Method】A model of the intermediary effects among economic growth, transportation infrastructure construction, and forest fragmentation was established through forest transformation theory, land use change theory, and growth axis theory, and the model was empirically tested. 【Result】In the relationship between the level of economic growth and degree of forest fragmentation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, every 1% increase in economic growth resulted in a 3% increase in forest fragmentation during the same period. In the relationship between economic growth and transportation infrastructure construction, every 1% increase in economic growth resulted in over 0.1% increase in highway density. In the relationship between traffic infrastructure construction and forest fragmentation, every 1-unit increase in highway density increased the number of forest patches in the region by more than 4. The mechanism test showed that in terms of economic growth affecting forest fragmentation, transportation infrastructure construction had a significant intermediary effect, with an intermediary degree of 23.255%. 【Conclusion】 The rise in economic growth significantly promotes forest fragmentation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Improvement in economic growth can effectively promote the construction of transportation infrastructure and improve the distribution density of roads. The construction of transportation infrastructure significantly exacerbated regional forest fragmentation during the study period. In the process of economic growth, transport infrastructure construction correlated with an increase in forest fragmentation.

Key words: economic growth, forest fragmentation, transport infrastructure, intermediary effect, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China

中图分类号:

S757
F326

罗奕奕,李凌超,程宝栋. 经济增长对森林破碎化的影响——以中国京津冀地区为例[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 48(1): 227-236.

LUO Yiyi, LI Lingchao, CHENG Baodong. The impact of economic growth on forest fragmentation: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2024, 48(1): 227-236.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202204051.

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年份 year	P_AM	G	W/ (km·km^-2)	S/%	D	K	O/ (万人·km^-2)	N/ (kW·人^-1)
总体total	5.604±5.376	9.573±0.888	0.666±0.381	80.0±40.1	5.624±0.970	9.259±1.112	0.197±0.014	2.922±3.991
2000	3.434±2.559	8.386±0.364	0.329±0.190	0	4.782±0.687	8.098±0.371	0.019±0.013	3.656±6.445
2005	3.186±2.369	9.073±0.563	0.620±0.339	100	5.374±0.910	8.690±0.426	0.019±0.014	2.879±3.467
2010	3.450±2.613	9.875±0.553	0.709±0.343	100	5.838±0.945	9.477±0.412	0.020±0.014	2.782±3.301
2015	7.708±6.291	10.236±0.491	0.834±0.392	100	6.049±0.907	9.572±1.505	0.021±0.015	2.593±2.890
2018	10.240±6.843	10.334±0.432	0.847±0.372	100	6.101±0.724	10.525±0.276	0.020±0.014	2.703±2.809

验证方法 verification method		W	G	S	D	O	N	系数 coefficient	观测值 observations	R²
基准回归 benchmark regression	P_AM(1)	—	3.496^***	-2.828^***	0.341	-100.862^***	-0.059	-25.373^***	186	0.267
			(0.621)	(0.688)	(0.385)	(20.577)	(0.093)	(4.365)
	W(2)	—	0.179^***	0.172^***	-0.013	15.472^***	0.009	-1.444^***	186	0.668
			(0.033)	(0.055)	(0.025)	(1.717)	(0.006)	(0.236)
	P_AM(3)	4.536^**	2.683^***	-3.608^***	0.402	-171.043^***	-0.097	-18.825^***	186	0.301
		(1.813)	(0.611)	(0.795)	(0.393)	(36.921)	(0.078)	(4.15)
双向固定效应 fixed-effect regression	P_AM(1)	—	4.024^***	-3.687^***	-0.048	221.283	0.072	-34.316^***	186	0.356
			(0.663)	(0.62)	(-0.443)	(232.204)	(0.09)	(5.858)
	W(2)	—	0.125^***	0.176^***	0.013	45.832^***	0.013	-1.698^***	186	0.623
			(0.034)	(0.056)	(0.035)	(14.893)	(0.009)	(0.333)
	P_AM(3)	4.120^**	3.507^***	-4.412^***	-0.104	32.451	0.017	-27.319^***	186	0.385
		(1.593)	(0.722)	(1.05)	(0.708)	(228.758)	(0.085)	(5.745)

统计量 statistic	Sobel检验Sobel test					Bootstrap检验Bootstrap test
统计量 statistic	系数a coef a	系数b coef b	中介效应 mediation effect	直接效应 direct effect	总效应 total effect	间接效应 indirect effect	直接效应 direct effect
统计值statistic value	0.179	4.536	0.813	2.683	3.496	0.813	2.683
标准差SD	0.032	1.525	0.310	0.710	0.669	0.393	0.633
Z统计量Z statistic	4.268	2.813	2.627	2.430	3.384	2.070	4.240
P	<0.001	0.003	0.009	<0.001	<0.001	0.039	<0.001

变量 variable	W	K	控制变量 control variable	时间效应 time effect	个体效应 individual effect	系数 coefficient	观测值 observations	R²	样本量 sample
P_AM(1)	—	1.534 8±0.254 3^***	控制	固定	固定	-22.966 0±4.650 8^***	186	0.302 0	38
W(2)	—	0.039 2±0.017 9^**	控制	固定	固定	-1.319 1±0.235 5^***	186	0.604 8	38
P_AM(3)	5.162 5±1.600 0^***	1.332 4±0.348 8^***	控制	固定	固定	-16.156 0±4.974 8^***	186	0.349 7	38

经济增长对森林破碎化的影响——以中国京津冀地区为例

The impact of economic growth on forest fragmentation: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China

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