【目的】预测极端气候条件下美国白蛾在我国的潜在适生区分布,为有效防控美国白蛾扩散及对潜在适生区美国白蛾的监测预警提供依据。【方法】收集美国白蛾分布数据,获取当代和未来的低温室气体排放和高温室气体排放情境下的生物气候变量数据、极端气候指数数据,利用ArcGIS和DIVA-GIS对数据进行处理,筛选出相关系数<0.8且对美国白蛾潜在分布概率贡献大的气候变量,将其代入MaxEnt进行运算,获得美国白蛾当代、2021—2040、2041—2060、2061—2080年的潜在适生区,并根据适生区重心的相对位置判断适生区的空间变化。【结果】日最大降水量、暖日持续指数、冷夜日数占比、最湿季度平均气温是影响美国白蛾分布的重要气候变量。当前环境下美国白蛾的潜在适生区主要分布在华北东部、东北南部、黄淮、江淮、江南东部、江汉北部。无论何种情境,美国白蛾未来将向西南方向扩散,到达川渝一带,并在两广交界处有零散分布。【结论】极端降水是影响美国白蛾分布的重要因素,美国白蛾适宜生活在气候特征较为稳定的地区。基于极端气候指数预测表明,美国白蛾未来60年在我国呈现向西南方向扩散的风险。

【Objective】This study aims to predict the potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea under extreme climate conditions in China. 【Method】The occurrence data of H. cunea were obtained. Contemporary and future bioclimatic variables and extreme climate index data were processed using ArcGIS and DIVA-GIS. Environmental variables with low correlation coefficients and high contribution rates were selected. These variables were input into MaxEnt to calculate the potential habitats of H. cunea for the contemporary period, 2021 to 2040, 2041 to 2060, and 2061 to 2080. The spatial changes in the habitats were expressed by the relative positions of the centroids of the habitats. 【Result】The maximum daily precipitation, warm spell duration index, percentage of nights when the minimum temperature is below the 10th percentile, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were important variables affecting the distribution of H. cunea. The potential habitat of H. cunea was currently mainly distributed in eastern, northern, and northeastern China, as well as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In the future, H. cunea might spread to southwest China, reaching Sichuan and Chongqing, with scattered distributions in Guangdong and Guangxi. 【Conclusion】The extreme precipitation is an important factor affecting the distribution of H. cunea. H. cunea is adapted to areas with stable climates. Predictions based on the extreme climate index indicate a risk that H. cunea will spread to southwest China in the future.