多情景模拟下县域生境质量时空演变预测——以桃源县为例

杨宇萍, 陈彩虹, 佘济云, 林楚璇, 肖芬, 陈楚琳

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6) : 201-209.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
PDF(1115 KB)
南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (6) : 201-209. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212038
研究论文

多情景模拟下县域生境质量时空演变预测——以桃源县为例

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Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County

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摘要

【目的】探究不同发展情景下的县域生境质量分布格局,为区域生态保护和社会经济可持续发展提供保障。【方法】以湖南省常德市桃源县为例,结合GeoSOS-FLUS模型与InVEST模型预测耕地保护情景(CPS)、生态保护情景(EPS)和经济建设情景(ECS)下的土地利用和生境质量时空演变格局,并借助地理探测器探测生境质量空间差异的影响因素。【结果】①2000—2020年,桃源县土地利用变化总体表现为草地、耕地、林地规模逐渐减少,建设用地持续扩张;生境质量呈下降趋势,低生境质量面积占比逐年升高。②2035年桃源县在3种情景下的生境质量均值从大到小为EPS(0.818 7)>CPS(0.817 9)>ECS(0.817 3);在ECS下,林地面积实现正增长,高生境质量区域减少幅度放缓,建设用地扩张对生态的破坏得到最大程度遏制;在CPS下,较低生境质量面积占比达到28.07%;在ECS下,低生境质量区域面积占比2.07%,呈持续增长趋势。③地形因子是影响桃源县生境质量空间分布的主要因素,其次为GDP与人口密度。【结论】在县域未来发展中,可考虑优化生态用地空间布局,鼓励发展生态农业,合理控制建设用地增量,提高生态稳定性,促进国土空间高质量发展。

Abstract

【Objective】This study aims to explore the distribution patterns of habitat quality in county-level areas under different development scenarios to support regional ecological protection and socio-economic sustainable development.【Method】Using Taoyuan County as a case study, we applied the GeoSOS-FLUS model and the InVEST model to simulate the spatial-temporal evolution of land use and habitat quality under three scenarios: cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and economic construction scenario (ECS). We also analyzed the factors influencing spatial variations in habitat quality using Geographic Detectors.【Result】From 2000 to 2020, land use changes in Taoyuan County included a gradual decrease in grassland, cultivated land, and woodland, while construction land expanded continuously. Habitat quality declined, with a yearly increase in the proportion of low habitat quality areas. By 2035, the average habitat quality values under the three scenarios were ranked as follows: EPS (0.818 7)>CPS (0.817 9)>ECS (0.817 3). Under EPS, woodland area increased positively, the reduction in high habitat quality areas slowed, and ecological damage from construction land expansion was minimized. Under CPS, 28.07% of the area had low habitat quality. Under ECS, 2.07% of the area had low habitat quality, which showed a continuous increase. Topographic factors were the primary determinants of habitat quality distribution in Taoyuan County, followed by GDP and population density.【Conclusion】Future county development should consider optimizing the spatial layout of ecological land, promoting ecological agriculture, controlling construction land expansion, improving ecological stability, and advancing high-quality land space development.

关键词

多情景模拟 / 生境质量 / 碳储量 / 土地利用 / GeoSOS-FLUS模型 / InVEST模型 / 湖南桃源县

Key words

multi-scenario simulation / habitat quality / carbon storage / land use / GeoSOS-FLUS model / InVEST model / Taoyuan County of Hunan Province

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杨宇萍, 陈彩虹, 佘济云, 等. 多情景模拟下县域生境质量时空演变预测——以桃源县为例[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）. 2024, 48(6): 201-209 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212038
YANG Yuping, CHEN Caihong, SHE Jiyun, et al. Prediction of the spatiotemporal evolution of county habitat quality under multi-scenario simulation: a case of Taoyuan County[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2024, 48(6): 201-209 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212038
中图分类号： F301.2;X826   

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