西藏河谷特有植物小花水柏枝潜在地理分布及环境影响因子

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303037

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3): 220-226.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303037

西藏河谷特有植物小花水柏枝潜在地理分布及环境影响因子

王俊伟¹^,²(), 德吉¹^,², 卫波宁¹^,², 常子惠³, 拉琼¹^,²^,^*()

1.西藏大学生态环境学院,青藏高原生物多样性与生态环境保护教育部重点实验室,西藏拉萨 850000
2.西藏雅尼湿地生态系统定位观测研究站,西藏林芝 860000
3.西藏自治区农牧科学院农业研究所,西藏拉萨 850032

收稿日期:2023-03-24 接受日期:2023-08-24 出版日期:2025-05-30 发布日期:2025-05-27
通讯作者: *拉琼(lhagchong@163.com),教授。
作者简介:
王俊伟(jwyx12240315@126.com)。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(31760127);西藏大学生态学一流学科建设项目(00060906-01);西藏大学生态学一流学科建设项目(00060835/001)

Potential geographical distribution and leading environmental factors of Myricaria wardii, an endemic species of the Xizang river valleys

WANG Junwei¹^,²(), Deji ¹^,², WEI Boning¹^,², CHANG Zihui³, Laqiong ¹^,²^,^*()

1. Key Laboratory of Biodiversity and Environmental on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Tibet University & Wuhan University, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa 850000, China
2. Xizang Yani Wetland Ecosystem Positioning Observation Research Station, Nyingchi 860000, China
3. Institute of Agriculture, Xizang Academy of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Lhasa 850032, China

Received:2023-03-24 Accepted:2023-08-24 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-05-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

【目的】小花水柏枝(Myricaria wardii)为柽柳科水柏枝属直立灌木,是西藏河漫滩沙地特有植物,具有重要的生态与经济价值。分析当前和未来(2050s、2070s)潜在地理分布情况及主导环境因子,以期为小花水柏枝的科学保护和合理开发利用提供理论参考。【方法】通过野外调查获得小花水柏枝27个实际地理分布点数据,基于9个环境变量,借助MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件对其在西藏不同时期不同气候情景下的潜在适宜分布区进行预测及面积计算,探究影响小花水柏枝自然分布的主导环境因子。【结果】当前小花水柏枝主要集中分布在年楚河流域、拉萨河流域、尼洋河流域、帕隆藏布流域。MaxEnt模型预测结果表现良好,AUC平均值为0.953。最暖季降水量(Bio18)、气温季节性变动系数(Bio4)、最冷月最低温(Bio6)、最冷季降水量(Bio19)、坡度(Slo)对模型的贡献率累计达88.2%,是影响小花水柏枝分布的主要环境变量。2种碳排放浓度下(RCP 4.5、RCP 8.5)小花水柏枝各适生等级的潜在分布区面积均在增加,最大碳排放浓度下(RCP 8.5) 小花水柏枝的潜在适生区扩散速度更快。与当前潜在分布区相比,小花水柏枝分布中心主要沿着西藏各大江河流域呈东南向西北扩散的趋势。【结论】MaxEnt模型可以比较准确地预测小花水柏枝的潜在适生区,西藏中部的年楚河流域、拉萨河流域,东南部的尼洋河流域、帕隆藏布流域为集中分布区域。随着气候变暖的加剧,适生区面积不断扩大,分布中心呈东南向西北方向迁移扩散。

关键词: 小花水柏枝, MaxEnt模型, 环境因子, 地理分布

Abstract:

【Objective】Myricaria wardii is an erect shrub of the genus Myricaria in the family Tamaricaceae, endemic to the sandy areas of Xizang rivers and beaches, and has important ecological and economic values. The potential geographical distribution and dominant environmental factors of M. wardii at present and in the future (2050s, 2070s) were predicted and analyzed to provide theoretical references for scientific conservation and rational exploitation of M. wardii.【Method】27 actual geographical distribution points of M. wardii were obtained through field surveys, and the potential suitable distribution areas of M. wardii in Xizang under different climatic scenarios at different times were predicted and the area was calculated with MaxEnt model and ArcGIS softwares to explore the dominant environmental factors affecting the natural distribution of M. wardii.【Result】The MaxEnt model predicted very good results with a mean AUC of 0.953. Currently, the M. wardii are mainly distributed in the Nianchu River Basin, Lhasa River Basin, Niyang River Basin and Parlung Zangbo River Basin. Precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), temperature seasonality (Bio4), min temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), and slope (Slo) contributed 88.2% cumulatively to the model and were the main environmental variables influencing the distribution of M. wardii. The potential distribution area of M. wardii for each fitness class increased at two carbon emission concentrations (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and the potential fitness area of M. wardii spread faster at the maximum carbon emission concentration (RCP 8.5). Compared with the current potential distribution area, the distribution centers of M. wardii mainly spread southeast to northwest along the major river basins in Xizang.【Conclusion】The MaxEnt model can accurately predict the potential suitable areas for M. wardii, with the Nianchu River Basin and Lhasa River basin in central Xizang; and the Niyang River basin and Parlung Zangbo River basin in southeast Xizang as the concentrated distribution areas. With the intensification of climate warming, the area of the suitable areas is expanding, and the distribution center is moving and spreading in a southeast to northwest direction.

Key words: Myricaria wardii, MaxEnt, environmental factor, geographical distribution

中图分类号:

Q948.5
S792

王俊伟,德吉,卫波宁,等. 西藏河谷特有植物小花水柏枝潜在地理分布及环境影响因子[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）, 2025, 49(3): 220-226.

WANG Junwei, Deji , WEI Boning, CHANG Zihui, Laqiong . Potential geographical distribution and leading environmental factors of Myricaria wardii, an endemic species of the Xizang river valleys[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Science Edition), 2025, 49(3): 220-226.DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202303037.

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环境变量 environmental variable	描述 description	贡献率/% percent contribution	置换重要值/% permutation importance
Bio18	最暖季降水量precipitation of the warmest quarter	23.7	5.4
Bio4	气温季节性变动系数 temperature seasonality	22.4	1.4
Bio6	最冷月最低温min temperature of the coldest month	18.2	69.9
Slo	坡度slope	12.1	9.6
Bio19	最冷季降水量precipitation of the coldest quarter	11.8	7.9
S_pH_H2O	下层土壤酸碱度 soil pH of subsoil	6.1	0.1
Awc_Class	土壤有效含水量 available water storage	4.5	5.0
Asp	坡向aspect	0.8	0.5
Bio3	等温性isothermality	0.5	0.2

气候变化情景 climate change scenario	非适生区 non-suitable growth		低适生区 low suitable growth		中适生区 moderate suitable growth		高适生区 high suitable growth		总适生区 total suitable growth
气候变化情景 climate change scenario	面积/ ×10⁴ km² area	占比/% proportion	面积/ ×10⁴ km² area	占比/% proportion	面积/ ×10⁴ km² area	占比/% proportion	面积/ ×10⁴ km² area	占比/% proportion	面积/ ×10⁴ km² area	占比/% proportion
当前current	107.07	87.16	11.41	9.29	2.81	2.29	1.55	1.26	15.77	12.84
2050-RCP 4.5	89.18	72.60	23.92	19.47	6.84	5.57	2.90	2.36	33.66	27.40
2070-RCP 4.5	87.14	70.94	24.65	20.07	7.73	6.29	3.32	2.70	35.70	29.06
2050-RCP 8.5	83.95	68.34	26.25	21.37	8.81	7.17	3.83	3.12	38.89	31.66
2070-RCP 8.5	75.92	61.80	29.65	24.14	11.63	9.47	5.64	4.59	46.92	38.20

西藏河谷特有植物小花水柏枝潜在地理分布及环境影响因子

Potential geographical distribution and leading environmental factors of Myricaria wardii, an endemic species of the Xizang river valleys

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