退耕还林工程对中国粮食生产动态影响研究

刘璨; 刘浩; 朱文清; 王雁斌; 张寒

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202307028

退耕还林工程对中国粮食生产动态影响研究

刘璨, 刘浩, 朱文清, 王雁斌, 张寒

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1) : 1-10.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (1) : 1-10. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202307028

特邀专论（执行主编李萍萍李维林）

退耕还林工程对中国粮食生产动态影响研究

刘璨 ¹^,² ,
刘浩 ² ,
朱文清 ² ,
王雁斌 ² ,
张寒 ³^,^*

作者信息 +

The dynamic effects of the Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program on grain production in China

LIU Can ¹^,² ,
LIU Hao ² ,
ZHU Wenqing ² ,
WANG Yanbin ² ,
ZHANG Han ³^,^*

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

【目的】中国粮食安全问题受到高度关注,迫切需要科学评估退耕还林工程对中国粮食生产的影响,为决策者提供退耕还林工程后续政策思路,进一步巩固好退耕还林成果。【方法】基于1995—2020年31省(自治区、直辖市)的宏观样本和6省(区)15县(市)72个乡镇、171个村的5 223个农户微观样本,采用系统GMM模型估计了退耕还林工程对各省区市粮食生产和样本农户粮食播种面积的动态影响,采用固定效应模型估计了退耕还林工程对样本农户粮食生产行为的影响。【结果】退耕还林工程对样本省区市粮食产量和样本农户粮食播种面积产生了负向影响,且影响呈现出显著的粮食品种、时间和区域等异质性;若考虑到退耕还林工程对农户粮食生产行为的动态调整,以及新增森林生态系统服务和生产的森林食品,实施退耕还林工程对粮食生产的影响不显著。【结论】退耕还林工程未对中国粮食安全产生显著负面影响,需要与时俱进、分区分类地完善退耕还林政策。

Abstract

【Objective】The issue of food security in China has received significant attention. It should be estimated whether the Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program (SLCP) has substantially impacted grain production in China, and policy implications should be provided to maintain the achievement of this program.【Method】A System-GMM model is employed to estimate the dynamic effects of the SLCP on grain production, using samples from 31 provinces and 5 223 rural households across 171 administrative villages in 72 townships, 15 counties of six provinces. The food production behaviors of the sample households are estimated using a fixed-effect model. 【Result】The SLCP slightly and significantly reduces the grain production in the local provinces and grain sowing area of the sample households, with variations by years, crop species, and regions. However, when considering the dynamic impacts of the SLCP on household grain production, along with the additional ecosystem services and food supplies generated from newly added forests by the SLCP, the effect on grain production becomes insignificantly. 【Conclusion】The SLCP had no significantly negative impact on China’s grain security, and follow-up policy adjustments should be made based on zoning and classification.

导出引用

刘璨, 刘浩, 朱文清, 等. 退耕还林工程对中国粮食生产动态影响研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）. 2025, 49(1): 1-10 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202307028

LIU Can, LIU Hao, ZHU Wenqing, et al. The dynamic effects of the Sloping Land Conversion to Forests Program on grain production in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2025, 49(1): 1-10 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202307028

中图分类号： S7-9

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