耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测

包逸涛, 吴朝明, 朱骊, 杨锐, 戈禹, 刘自强

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3) : 119-128.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3) : 119-128. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001
专题报道Ⅲ：智慧林业之林业与环境研究

耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测

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Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models

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摘要

【目的】预测无锡市未来不同情景下土地利用转移,研究产水量服务功能时空变化及驱动因素,为当地生态与社会经济可持续发展提供依据。【方法】基于FLUS及InVEST模型,利用历史用地转移趋势预测未来情景土地利用变化,分析1990—2030年无锡市产水量服务功能空间异质性,并通过情景分析法探究产水量主导驱动因素。【结果】无锡市的历史土地利用演变主要由耕地向发展用地转移,在研究期内,耕地面积减少32.69%,发展用地面积增加217.25%;研究区历史年均产水体积为2.552×109 m3,年平均产水深度为612.34 mm,年产水量与降水量和蒸散量的变化趋势保持一致,呈现出先下降后上升的模式。在空间上,产水量高值区集中在西南部林地和东北部草地区,低值区集中在中部水域。在1990—2000、1990—2010、1990—2020及2020—2030年4个时段内,产水量的变化受到土地利用转移和降水量变动的影响,这两个因素对4个时段产水量的贡献率分别为-10.00%和110.00%、12.50%和87.50%、1.00%和99.00%及5.46%和94.54%。降水量是影响产水量变化的主要因素。【结论】历史及未来情景下,降水量变化对产水量的影响显著高于土地利用对产水量的影响,降水量是无锡市产水量变化的关键驱动力,此结果可为研究区水资源配置提供科学依据。

Abstract

【Objective】Forecasting future land use changes under different scenarios in Wuxi City and studying the spatial and temporal variations in water yield services and their driving factors are crucial for local ecological and socio-economic sustainability. 【Method】The FLUS and InVEST models were used to predict future land use changes based on historical trends. The spatial and temporal variations in water yield services in Wuxi City from 1990 to 2030 were analyzed, and scenario analysis was employed to identify the main factors influencing water yield.【Result】The primary historical land use change in Wuxi had been the conversion of cultivated land to developed land. During the study period, the area of cultivated land decreased by 32.69%, while developed land increased by 217.25%. The historical annual average water yield in Wuxi was 2.552 × 109 m3, with a depth of 612.34 mm. Water yield varied with rainfall and evapotranspiration, initially decreasing and then increasing. Spatially,the high-value areas of water production were concentrated in the southwestern forest and northeastern grassland areas, while the low value areas were concentrated in the central water area. During the four time periods of 1990 to 2000, 1990 to 2010, 1990 to 2020, and 2020 to 2030, the changes in water yield were influenced by land use transfer and changes in precipitation. These two factors contributed to the water yield of the four time periods by -10.00% and 110.00%, 12.50% and 87.50%, 1.00% and 99.00%, 5.46% and 94.54%, respectively. Precipitation is the main factor affecting changes in water yield. 【Conclusion】Scenario analysis results indicate that changes in rainfall have a more significant impact on water yield than changes in land use. Rainfall is the primary driver of variations in water yield, providing a scientific basis for water allocation in the study area.

关键词

InVEST模型 / FLUS模型 / 产水量 / 驱动因子 / 土地利用 / 无锡市

Key words

InVEST model / FLUS model / water yield / driving factors / land use / Wuxi City

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包逸涛, 吴朝明, 朱骊, 等. 耦合InVEST与FLUS模型的无锡市产水量时空变化与预测[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）. 2025, 49(3): 119-128 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001
BAO Yitao, WU Chaoming, ZHU Li, et al. Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2025, 49(3): 119-128 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001
中图分类号： Q148;S757   

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基金

西北土地退化与生态恢复重点实验室(宁夏大学)开放基金项目(LDER2022Q02)
国家自然科学基金项目(42377068)
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20231290)
江苏省高校“青蓝工程”水土保持实践教学团队。

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