【目的】探究我国中部地区流域土地利用动态和生态系统服务时空演变特征,为粮食主产区生态环境保护和国土空间规划提供科学依据。【方法】以2000—2020年漳河上游土地利用变化为基础,基于InVEST、PLUS等模型,探讨漳河上游过去及未来不同情景下土地利用变化及生态系统服务时空演变规律。【结果】①2000—2020年,流域内土地利用变化主要表现为耕地迅速减少及建设用地持续扩张;2035年,自然发展情景下建设用地持续高速扩张,挤占了耕地、草地和林地,而耕地保护和生态保护情景下建设用地扩张得到抑制,耕地、林地得到了有效保护。②2000—2020年,研究区产水量和土壤保持量呈上升趋势,碳储量和生境质量呈下降趋势;碳储量、生境质量和土壤保持量高值区位于中部偏东和东南部的林地,低值区位于中南部的建设用地,产水量则呈相反空间分布格局;从地形梯度上看,产水量随地形梯度上升而减小,碳储量、生境质量、土壤保持量随地形梯度上升而增加。③生态保护情景下研究区生态系统服务获得最大提升。【结论】生态保护情景更适宜研究区今后发展模式,可为漳河上游生态环境保护和土地开发提供决策参考。流域未来需着重关注建设用地与耕地的冲突问题,针对性地优化国土空间开发策略,促进区域内土地利用结构向高生态系统服务发展。

【Objective】This research aims to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use dynamics and ecosystem services in the central China river basins, and provide a scientific basis for ecological environment protection and territorial space planning in major grain-producing regions.【Method】Based on land use changes in the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River basin from 2000 to 2020, this study employed models such as InVEST and PLUS to explore the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of land use and ecosystem services under different scenarios in the past and future of the basin.【Result】(1) From 2000 to 2020, the basin experienced rapid cultivated land reduction and continuous construction land expansion. By 2035, under the natural development scenario, construction land expanded rapidly, encroaching on cultivated, grassland, and forest land. However, under cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios, construction land expansion was curbed, effectively preserving cultivated and forest land. (2) During 2000-2020, water yield and soil conservation increased, while carbon storage and habitat quality decreased. High-value areas for carbon storage, habitat quality, and soil conservation were found in the basin’s east-central and southeastern forests, whereas low-value areas were in the south-central construction land. Water yield exhibited an opposite spatial pattern, decreasing with increasing topographic gradient. (3) The ecological protection scenario yielded the greatest ecosystem service improvements and is suitable for future development.【Conclusion】The ecological protection scenario offers decision-making support for ecological protection and land development in the basin’s upper reaches. Future efforts should focus on resolving construction land-cultivated land conflicts and optimizing territorial space development strategies to promote land use structure transformation toward high ecosystem service provision.