【目的】 在“双碳”背景下,探讨木质林产品的固碳能力及其增长路径,为气候谈判、“碳中和”目标实现提供参考。【方法】在回顾政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的《2006国家温室气体清单指南2019修订版》中木质林产品碳储量核算方法的基础上,选取了IPCC 2019年新修订的“生产法”为主要方法,对1961—2022年中国木质林产品的碳储量贡献进行核算,并从模型关键因子及测算规则入手提出碳储量增长路径。【结果】①至2022年,中国木质林产品累计碳储量达751.41 Mt,其中锯材、木板、纸类产品累计碳储量分别为269.04、404.96、77.41 Mt。②对比中国能源消费的年碳排放量,2021年的年碳储增量可以减少约1.4%的碳净排放量。在林业产业内部,碳储量贡献与碳排放相抵,已实现产业内“碳中和”。③在新“生产法”计算规则下,回收纸利用率的提高能够带来纸类产品碳储量的增长;加大工业圆木进口量以及木质半成品出口将会造成国内碳储量损失。【结论】中国木质林产品碳储量已有较大规模,且仍具有较大的增长潜力,能够有效助力“碳中和”目标的实现,在气候谈判中的助力作用也不可忽略。未来可以从促进回收纸张的高效利用、提升木材供给与储备能力、优先发展木质成品出口市场等方面促进木质林产品碳储量增长。

【Objective】 In the context of China’s dual carbon goals, this study aims to examine the carbon sequestration capacity and potential growth pathways of harvested wood products (HWP), with the intention of contributing to international climate negotiations and the achievement of carbon neutrality targets.【Method】Based on a comprehensive review of carbon accounting methods for HWP under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, this study adopted the revised Production Approach outlined in the 2019 IPCC guidelines. Using this method, the carbon stock contribution of HWP in China from 1961 to 2022 was calculated. Furthermore, the study analyzed key model parameters and accounting rules to propose feasible pathways for enhancing carbon sequestration.【Result】(1)The cumulative carbon stock of China’s HWP reached 751.41 Mt by 2022, with sawnwood, wood-based panels, and paper products accounting for 269.04, 404.96 and 77.41 Mt, respectively.(2)In 2021, the annual increase in HWP carbon stock offset approximately 1.4% of China’s net carbon emissions from energy consumption. Within the forestry sector, the carbon storage of HWP balanced its carbon emissions, achieving sectoral “carbon neutrality”.(3)Under the calculation framework of the revised Production Approach, an increase in paper recycling rates led to greater carbon stock in paper products. However, rising imports of industrial roundwood and exports of semi-finished wood products resulted in a net loss of domestic carbon stock. 【Conclusion】China’s HWP carbon stock has reached a substantial level and still possesses considerable growth potential. It can effectively support the realization of carbon neutrality goals and should be recognized as a significant asset in climate negotiations. Future efforts should focus on enhancing the recycling efficiency of paper, strengthening domestic wood supply and reserves, and promoting the export of finished wood products to further increase domestic HWP carbon sequestration.