【目的】加强对森林碳汇与低碳经济发展间互动协调及空间关联的研究,有助于实现区域森林科学管理与经济可持续发展。【方法】以2008—2018年中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的森林碳汇、低碳经济系统指标数据为基础,运用综合评价模型、核密度估计和双变量空间自相关方法,对中国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的森林碳汇、低碳经济时空演变以及两者的空间关联性进行分析。【结果】中国森林碳汇的空间格局由“双强核”聚集式演变为“双主核一副核”均衡式;中国低碳经济发展水平不断上升,其空间格局呈现出“带状—团状—面状”的演变趋势。从全局来看,2008年、2013年、2018年的莫兰指数(Moran’s I)分别为-0.24、-0.26、-0.26,森林碳汇的“资源诅咒”现象依然存在。从局部来看,森林碳汇和低碳经济的局域空间格局具有低-低聚集和高-低聚集连片分布,以及高-高聚集和低-高聚集分散分布的特征。【结论】应抓住“双碳”窗口期的机遇,凭借森林资源优势推动低碳经济转型,树立“减排增汇”双驱动发展的典型,因地制宜地探索森林碳汇与低碳经济的平衡发展模式。

【Objective】Strengthen the research on the interactive mechanisms and spatial correlation between forest carbon sinks and low-carbon economic development, aiming to provide a scientific foundation for regional forest resource management.【Method】This study leveraged forest carbon sink and low-carbon economy system indicator data from 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China, spanning the years 2008 to 2018. Utilizing a comprehensive evaluation model, kernel density estimation, and bivariated spatial autocorrelation, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest carbon sinks and low-carbon economies, as well as their spatial correlation characteristics.【Result】The spatial distribution of forest carbon sinks in China is transitioning from a “dual-core dominance” model to a more balanced “dual-core with a secondary core” pattern. Concurrently, the level of low-carbon economic development continues to rise, with its spatial pattern evolving from a “strip-cluster-area” structure. At the macro level, the Moran’s I values for 2008, 2013, and 2018 are -0.24, -0.26, and -0.26, respectively. These values underscore the persistent presence of the “resource curse” phenomenon. At the micro level, the spatial patterns of forest carbon sinks and low-carbon economies exhibit distinct aggregation characteristics: low-low and high-low aggregations are observed in contiguous distributions, while high-high and low-high aggregations appear in dispersed distributions.【Conclusion】It is imperative to seize the strategic opportunity of the dual-carbon goals (carbon peak and neutrality), leverage our forest resource advantages to facilitate a well-planned low-carbon economic transition, establish exemplary models of dual-driven development featuring both emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement, and explore regionally differentiated approaches to balance forest carbon sequestration with low-carbon economic development.