【目的】岛屿作为重要的旅游地类型,其生态功能对于推动生态旅游发展具有重要的现实意义。基于不同发展情景与研究区旅游发展现状预测其生态系统服务价值演变,为岛屿旅游结构优化和可持续发展提出互动策略。【方法】以太湖西山岛为研究区,以人地关系理论、扩展劳动价值论等为理论支撑,利用2010、2015和2020年土地利用数据,结合遥感数据分析和GIS空间分析等方法,揭示土地利用和生态价值时空变化特征。基于PLUS模型,科学预测西山岛未来4种发展情景下土地利用变化和生态价值变化趋势。【结果】①太湖西山岛园地面积占比最高,10年间呈先减后增趋势,其余地类面积均有所增加;陆地水域的增长率最高,园地转移面积最大。②生态价值持续增长,空间上呈现“中间低、四周高”的分布特征。陆地水域的生态价值最高,园地次之,湿地最低;洪水调蓄的价值量和增长率均为最高,水源涵养次之,空气净化最低。③4种发展情景下,园地面积减少最为显著;除城镇保护情景外,陆地水域面积增加最多。自然发展情景下各地类变化较为均衡;城镇保护情景抑制了水域扩展;耕地保护情景缓解了园地面积缩减;生态保护情景促进了耕地、林地和陆地水域的面积增长,提高了生态扩张率,是一种相对均衡的发展路径。【结论】本研究揭示了岛屿型旅游地生态系统服务价值的演变过程,模拟了不同情景下的变化趋势,可为岛屿旅游地的可持续发展提供理论依据与实践参考。

【Objective】As an important type of tourist destinations, islands have significant practical significance in promoting the development of ecotourism through their ecological functions. Based on different development scenarios and the current status of tourism development in the study area, propose interactive strategies for optimizing the island’s tourism structure and sustainable development.【Method】This study takes Xishan Island in Suzhou as the research area, supported by theories such as human-land relationship theory and extended labor value theory, using land use data in the year of 2010, 2015, and 2020, combined with remote sensing data analysis and GIS spatial analysis methods, to reveal the spatiotemporal changes in land use and ecosystem value. Based on the PLUS model, scientifically predict the trends of land use change and ecosystem value change in four future development scenarios of Xishan Island.【Result】(1) The area of the garden was the largest, decreasing first and then increasing, while the area of other land types increased, with the highest growth rate in land waters. The transfer area of the garden is the largest. (2) The ecosystem value continued to increase, showing a characteristic of "low in the middle and high in the surrounding areas". Land waters bodies have the highest value, followed closely by gardens, and wetlands have the lowest value. The value and growth rate of flood regulation and storage are the highest, followed closely by water source conservation, and air purification is the lowest. (3) The four development scenarios have the largest reduction in garden area, with the largest increase in land waters except for urban protection. Under natural development scenarios, land use changes are balanced. Under urban conservation scenarios, the expansion of land waters are suppressed. The scenario of farmland protection has alleviated the reduction of garden land. The ecological protection scenario ensures the growth of cultivated forests land and water bodies, enhances the ecological expansion rate, and is a relatively balanced development path.【Conclusion】The study explores the evolution process of ecosystem service value in island tourism destinations, simulates the changing trends under different scenarios, and provides a theoretical basis and practical reference for the sustainable development of island tourism destinations.