【目的】生态系统固碳增汇是减缓全球变暖的重要途径。量化生态系统固碳服务供给与服务需求及其关系格局特征,探明供需关系格局变化的驱动因素,是制定和优化基于生态系统保护修复工程的区域碳中和解决方案的重要依据。【方法】以浙江省钱塘江源头区域山水林田湖草一体化保护和修复工程(简称钱江源“山水工程”)区为研究对象,运用量化分析模型探索工程区生态系统固碳服务供需及其关系格局特征、空间异质性及其驱动因素。【结果】①钱江源“山水工程”区生态系统固碳服务供给量大于需求量。2020年,生态系统固碳服务供给量为13.72 Mt,较10年前增长9.1%,固碳服务供给呈现“中西部高,东部低”的特征;生态系统固碳服务需求量在2020年达2.87 Mt,较2010年增长24.2%;生态系统固碳服务供需比总体呈盈余状态。②驱动钱江源“山水工程”区生态系统固碳服务供需关系格局变化的因素呈现空间分异特征,人均GDP、人口密度、年均气温、第二产业比重和城市建设用地面积占比对生态系统固碳服务供需关系格局有显著负效应,林地面积占比对生态系统固碳服务供需关系格局产生有显著正效应。【结论】本研究探明了工程干预下国家重点生态功能区生态系统固碳服务供需关系格局变化规律及其驱动因素,为国家实施“山水工程”推动提升生态系统固碳服务功能规划优化和可持续管理提供科学依据。

【Objective】Enhancing carbon sequestration and sink capacity is a critical pathway for ecosystems to mitigate global warming. Quantifying the supply and demand of ecosystem carbon sequestration services (ECSS) and their spatial relationships, along with identifying the drivers of their dynamics, provides an essential foundation for formulating and optimizing region-specific carbon-neutral solutions based on ecological protection and restoration projects.【Method】This study targeted the Qiantang River source region integrated protection and restoration project of mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes and grasslands (referred to as the Qiantang River source “Shan-Shui Initiative”) in Zhejiang Province. Using quantitative analytical models, we systematically assessed the spatiotemporal patterns, spatial heterogeneity, and driving factors of ECSS supply-demand relationships in the project area.【Result】(1) The ECSS supply in the Qiantang River “Shan-Shui Initiative” area exceeded demand. In 2020, the ECSS supply reached 13.72 Mt, reflecting a 9.1% increase compared to 2010, with a spatial distribution characterized by “higher values in central-western regions and lower values in the east”. Conversely, the ECSS demand in 2020 was 2.87 Mt, marking a 24.2% rise from 2010. The supply-demand ratio (SDR) of ECSS consistently exhibited a surplus state across most of the study area. (2) The drivers of ECSS supply-demand dynamics displayed significant spatial heterogeneity. GDP per capita, population density, annual mean air temperature, the proportion of secondary industry, and the coverage of urban construction land exerted statistically significant negative effects on the ECSS supply-demand relationship. In contrast, the proportion of forest area demonstrated a pronounced positive effect.【Conclusion】This study elucidates the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of ECSS supply-demand patterns in national key ecological function zones under engineered interventions. The findings offer a scientific basis for optimizing the planning and sustainable management of ecosystem carbon sequestration services through the implementation of the “Shan-Shui Initiative.”