多种政策组合下中国林业高质量发展的系统动力学仿真研究

谢煜; 张雨桐; 张智光

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410008

谢煜, 张雨桐, 张智光

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1) : 263-273.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2026, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (1) : 263-273. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410008

研究论文

多种政策组合下中国林业高质量发展的系统动力学仿真研究

谢煜 ¹^,² ,
张雨桐 ¹ ,
张智光 ¹^,²

作者信息 +

System dynamics simulation of China’s high-quality forestry development under multi-policy combination

XIE Yu ¹^,² ,
ZHANG Yutong ¹ ,
ZHANG Zhiguang ¹^,²

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

【目的】林业高质量发展系统内部机理复杂,需通过不同政策组合的优化配置,加强林业高质量发展的政策体系建设,以满足林业高质量发展对于经济、生态和社会多重目标的协调要求。【方法】基于新发展理念,从科技创新、产业协调、民生福祉、绿色发展4个维度构建林业高质量发展系统仿真模型,对4种政策导向下不同政策组合情景的2021—2035年中国林业高质量发展水平进行仿真模拟。【结果】①2035年中国林业高质量发展将达到中高水平,且在一定的政策组合下可达到高水平;②单一政策模式下科技创新投入政策的治理效果最优;③政策组合模式的发展潜力优于单一政策模式;④随着政策数量的叠加,边际效果也有所降低。【结论】根据优先级排序,科技创新和绿色发展应作为当下政策实施的重点,产业结构调整和民生福祉改善则作为长期目标进行推进;推行多部门参与的组合政策,提升林业高质量发展水平;政策制定者需在宏观层面进行统筹,避免多个政策的重复或冲突。

Abstract

【Objective】 The internal mechanism of the high-quality forestry development system is complex, and it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the policy system for high-quality forestry development through the optimized configuration of different policy combinations to cope with the coordination requirements of high-quality forestry development for multiple economic, ecological and social goals. 【Method】Based on the new development philosophy, a simulation model of high-quality forestry development system was constructed from four dimensions: scientific and technological innovation, industrial coordination, people’s livelihood and green development. The high-quality development level of China’s forestry from 2021 to 2035 was simulated under four policy-oriented scenarios. 【Result】(1) China’s forestry high-quality development will reach a medium-high level, and can even reach a high level under certain policy combinations in 2035. (2) The development potential of the scenario of scientific and technological innovation priority under the implementation of a single policy is the best. (3) The development potential of combined policies is better than that of single policies. (4) As the number of policies accumulates, the marginal effect decreases. 【Conclusion】Based on priority, technological innovation and green development should be the focus of current policy implementation, while industrial restructuring and the improvement of people’s well-being should be pursued as long-term objectives. Promote the implementation of integrated policies involving multiple departments to enhance the level of high-quality forestry development. Policymakers should coordinate at the macro level to avoid the duplication or conflict of multiple policies.

导出引用

谢煜, 张雨桐, 张智光. 多种政策组合下中国林业高质量发展的系统动力学仿真研究[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）. 2026, 50(1): 263-273 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410008

XIE Yu, ZHANG Yutong, ZHANG Zhiguang. System dynamics simulation of China’s high-quality forestry development under multi-policy combination[J]. Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition）. 2026, 50(1): 263-273 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202410008

中图分类号： S71;F307.2

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