【目的】基于对2010—2021年东北、内蒙古重点国有林区87个国有森工企业面板数据的分析,旨在测算林业新质生产力发展水平,揭示其时空动态演进与收敛特征。【方法】通过构建林业新质生产力评价指标体系来量化发展水平,结合核密度估计和收敛模型展开实证分析。【结果】东北、内蒙古重点国有林区林业新质生产力发展水平整体呈逐年增长的趋势,新质生产力发展水平差异显著,其中区域间差异是导致总体差异的主要原因。从空间特征看,东北、内蒙古重点国有林区各森工集团的林业新质生产力发展水平存在显著的空间集聚现象,并未呈现随机分布格局;从时间特征看,东北、内蒙古重点国有林区林业新质生产力整体呈主峰右移态势,发展水平逐年提高,但区域内部差异扩大,多极化特征显著;从收敛性特征看,东北、内蒙古重点国有林区及其各森工集团存在σ收敛、绝对β收敛以及条件β收敛。【结论】需进一步提升林业新质生产力水平,以缩小区域间差距;强化对低水平区域的精准帮扶,促进区域内均衡发展;充分发挥高水平区域的引领作用;加强科技创新与人才培养,推动林业新质生产力提升;建立区域间协作机制,实现协调发展。

【Objective】Using panel data from 87 state-owned forestry enterprises in key state-owned forest areas in three provinces in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia during 2010-2021, this study aims to estimate the development level of forestry new quality productivity and to reveal its spatio-temporal dynamic evolution and convergence characteristics.【Method】An index system was developed to quantify the development level of forestry new quality productivity, and an empirical assessment was conducted by integrating the kernel density analysis, and convergence models.【Result】Overall, forestry new quality productivity in the key state-owned forest areas of three provinces in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia exhibited a steady year-by-year increase. However, substantial disparities in development levels persisted, with inter-regional differences constituting the primary source of the overall gap. Spatially, the new quality productivity of forest industry groups displayed significant agglomeration, indicating a non-random distribution pattern. Temporally, the distribution of forestry new quality productivity showed a rightward shift in the main peak, reflecting continuous improvement over time; meanwhile, intra-regional disparities widened and multi-polarization became increasingly pronounced. Convergence tests further confirmed the presence of σ convergence, absolute β convergence, and conditional β convergence across the key state-owned forest areas and their forest industry groups.【Conclusion】Further efforts are needed to enhance forestry new quality productivity and narrow regional disparities. Targeted supports should be strengthened for low-level areas to promote more balanced within-region development; the leading role of high-level regions should be fully leveraged; scientific and technological innovation and talent development should be reinforced to accelerate productivity improvement; and an inter-regional cooperation mechanism should be established to achieve coordinated development.