【目的】探究我国林业韧性水平的时空格局与影响因素,为提升林业风险应对能力、促进区域间协同发展提供理论支持与实践指导。【方法】基于社会-生态系统(SESs)韧性框架构建涵盖风险抵御、适应调整、重构创新3个维度的评价指标体系,以2004—2022年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市,不含港澳台地区)为研究单元,集成熵权-TOPSIS法测度林业韧性水平,借助Dagum基尼系数分解区域差异来源,采用随机森林模型识别关键影响因素的边际效应与区域异质性,并结合适应性循环理论解析其演进逻辑。【结果】①研究期内,我国林业韧性呈稳健上升态势,累计增幅达51.31%,依次经历政策觉醒期(2004—2009年)、韧性跃升期(2009—2018年)、结构调整期(2018—2022年)3个阶段;空间上呈显著非均衡特征。②区域差异总体呈趋向均衡的态势,但超变密度贡献率持续上升;区域内差异特征明显。③信息技术发展与网络覆盖是提升林业韧性的关键因素,且存在显著的区域异质性。【结论】为有效提升林业韧性水平,应实施分区精准治理:东部强化技术创新辐射,中部防范基础设施建设引发的生态干扰,西部突破数字赋能瓶颈,东北推动国有林区转型;同时,同步构建跨区域协同机制与动态监测体系,确保政策工具的有效性。

【Objective】This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of forestry resilience in China, with the aim of providing theoretical support and practical guidance for strengthening the forestry sector’s capacity to withstand risks and promoting coordinated regional development. 【Method】Based on the social-ecological system (SES) resilience framework, a comprehensive evaluation index system was developed across three dimensions: risk resistance, adaptive adjustment, and restructuring and innovation. Using data for 31 provincial-level regions in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2004 to 2022, forestry resilience was measured using entropy-weighted TOPSIS. Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition was employed to identify the sources of regional disparities, and a random forest model was used to examine the marginal effects and regional heterogeneity of the key influencing factors. Adaptive cycle theory was further applied to interpret the evolutionary dynamics of forestry resilience. 【Result】(1) China’s forestry resilience showed a steady upward trend during the study period, with a cumulative increase of 51.31%. Its evolution could be divided into three stages: the policy awakening stage (2004-2009), the resilience take-off stage (2009-2018), and the structural adjustment stage (2018-2022). Spatially, forestry resilience exhibited pronounced disequilibrium. (2) Overall regional disparities showed a tendency toward convergence, but the contribution rate of transvariation intensity continued to rise. Intra-regional disparities remained pronounced. (3) Information technology development and network coverage were identified as key factors in enhancing forestry resilience, and their effects exhibited significant regional heterogeneity. 【Conclusion】Region-specific and targeted governance should be implemented. Eastern China should enhance the spillover effects of technological innovation; central China should mitigate the ecological disturbances caused by infrastructure development; western China should address bottlenecks in digital empowerment; and Northeast China should accelerate the transformation of state-owned forest regions. Cross-regional coordination mechanisms and dynamic monitoring systems should also be established to improve the effectiveness of policy instruments and thereby enhance forestry resilience nationwide.