【目的】分析欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)对我国林产品贸易的潜在影响,以利于规避林产品贸易风险,保障林产品贸易的可持续性。【方法】采用全球贸易分析项目的能源-环境扩展模型,即GTAP-E模型,从林产品产出、进口、出口及市场结构等视角对CBAM框架下的我国林产品贸易进行预测。【结果】①从产出端看,CBAM实施初期林产品产出将有短期增长,但长期全产业链面临收缩风险,其中高附加值产品面临更大的下行压力;②从进口端看,CBAM冲击下林产品进口需求下降,陆运依赖型原材料进口将面临更大风险;③从出口端看,初级林产品出口降幅明显,深加工制品产业韧性则可能受限于新兴市场低附加值竞争。【结论】在欧盟碳边境调节机制下,我国需要建立高附加值林产品扶持体系,构建初级林产品原料进口的低碳供应链网络,实施分区域林产品合规认证与市场适配机制,并打造林业剩余物循环利用与应急供应双体系。

【Objective】This study analyzed the potential impacts of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) on China’s forest product trade. The research aims to inform strategies for mitigating trade risks and ensuring the long-term sustainability of the forestry industry’s trade activities.【Method】The GTAP-E model was employed to forecast changes in China’s forest product trade under the CBAM framework. The analysis focuses on key dimensions including domestic output, imports, exports, and market structure.【Result】(1) From the production perspective, forest product output is projected to experience short-term growth in the initial phase of CBAM implementation. However, a contraction risk emerges across the entire industry chain in the long run, with higher value-added products facing greater downward pressure. (2) Regarding imports, forest product import demand may decline under CBAM. Imports of raw materials heavily reliant on land transportation are likely to encounter heightened risks. (3) On the export front, exports of primary forest products are forecast to decrease significantly. The resilience of the deep-processed products industry may, in turn, be constrained by low-value-added competition in emerging markets.【Conclusion】Policy responses should prioritize establishing a support system for high value-added forest products, constructing low-carbon supply chain networks for importing primary raw materials, implementing region-specific compliance certification and market adaptation mechanisms for forest products, and developing dual systems for the cyclic utilization of forestry residues and emergency supply.