【目的】通过揭示2001—2015年以来中国松香产业内贸易的进出口贸易发展和变动趋势得出,中国松香产业内贸易存在的类型。【方法】采用各类产业内贸易指数等贸易理论模型,以及最小二乘法、多元线性回归残差等方法,运用MatLab软件,结合研究时段的产业内贸易,对进出口数据进行指标测算。【结果】经拟合,中国松香进口价和进口量之间不满足线性关系,也不满足反比例关系; 产品种类与出口额、进口额之间有一定的回归关系,出口额和进口额的残差方差分别为0.001 0和2.769 5,模型与实际较吻合。分析GL指数和边际产业内贸易指数,得出2001—2015年中国松香产业内贸易类型为混合型产业内贸易,并且是以垂直型产业内贸易为主的贸易方式。【结论】应抓住资源禀赋的竞争优势发展可持续的产业内贸易; 要创造非资源禀赋的竞争优势,加大科研投入,加速发展松香产业内贸易,促进高质量产业内贸易的发展。
Abstract
【Objective】By revealing the import and export trade development and changing trends through year 2001 to 2015, we can determine and evaluate the intra-industry trade types of Chinese rosin.【Methods】We used various types of intra-industry trade indices such as the trade theory model, the least squares method, the multiple linear regression residual mathematical model and the MatLab software, combined with calculations from the year 2001 to 2015 of intra-industry trade import and export data index.【Results】After fitting, Chinese rosin import price and import quantities does not meet the linear relationship between each other, and also does not meet the inverse proportion. There is a certain regression relationship among product variety, exports and imports, the residual variances of exports and imports were 0.001 0 and 2.769 5, which the model and the actual matched each other. Through analyzing the GL and marginal intra-industry trade index, we concluded that through year 2001 to 2015, the Chinese rosin intra-industry trade type was hybrid intra-industry trade, and the vertical intra-industry trade was the main way of intra-industry trade.【Conclusion】We should grasp the competitive advantage of the resources endowment, develop the sustainable intra-industry trade,create the competitive advantage of resources endowment, increase investment in scientific research, to accelerate the development of rosin intra-industry trade and promote the development of intra-industry trade with high quality.
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 张樟德. 中国松香工业的现状及发展对策[J]. 中国松香工业的现状及发展对策[J]. 北京林业大学学报, 2008, 30(3): 147-152. DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-1522.2008.03.028. ZHANG Z D. Present situation and development policies of rosin industry in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 2008, 30(3): 147-152.
[2] COPPEN J J W,HONE G A. Gum naval stores, turpentine and rosin from pine resin [J]. Chemistry of Natural Compounds, 2009, 45(1):106-107.
[3] FORAN C D, COVINGTON C W. Global turpentine production, there is hope[C]//PCA International Conference Proceedings,1999:165-170.
[4] 宋湛谦. 我国林产化工学科发展现状和趋势[J].精细与专用化学品, 2009,22(1):9-11. SONG Z Q. Forest chemical subject development status and trends in China[J]. Journal of Fine and Specialty Chemicals, 2009, 22(1): 9-11.
[5] 王瑾, 聂影. 中国松香产业国际竞争战略选择[J]. 林业经济问题, 2007, 27(4): 345-348. DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9709.2007.04.013. WANG J, NIE Y. Selections of international competitive strategies on Chinese gum rosin industry[J].Problems of Forestry Economics,2007,27(4):345-348.
[6] 刘琳琳,宋维明.中国松香进出口贸易中技术的作用[J].林业经济问题,2006,26(5): 429-432.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9709.2006.05.012. LIU L L, SONG W M. Technological effect in the aspect of import and export trade of China rosin[J]. Problems of Forestry Economics, 2006, 26(5): 429-432.
[7] 曹旭平. 中国主要林化产品国际竞争力研究[D]. 南京:南京林业大学,2011: 58-59. CAO X P. Chinese forest products international competitiveness research [D]. Nanjing: Nanjing Forestry University, 2011:58-59.
[8] SCOTT M F G, GRUBEL H G, LLOYD P J. Intra-industry trade: the theory and measurement of international trade in differentiated products[J].The Economic Journal,1975,85(339):646. DOI:10.2307/2230917.
[9] BRÜLHART M. Marginal intra-industry trade: measurement and relevance for the pattern of industrial adjustment[J].Review of World Economics,1994,130(3):600-613. DOI:10.1007/bf02707615.
[10] BALASSA B. The Determinant of Intra-industry specialization in US trade [J]. Oxford Economic Papers, 1986(2):220-233.
[11] 保罗·克鲁格曼, 茅瑞斯·奥伯斯法尔德. 国际经济学[M]. 海闻,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社, 2002:98-99.
[12] 陈圣林, 奉国强, 杨燕南. 2011年中国林业产业发展现状分析与趋势研究[J]. 林业经济, 2012(8): 18-23.
[13] 宁国玉.中国产业内贸易的经济效应研究[D].兰州:西北大学,2012: 112-124. NING G Y. China’s intra-industry trade economic effect research [D]. Lanzhou: Northwest University, 2012: 112-124.
基金
收稿日期:2016-03-16 修回日期:2016-10-10
基金项目:江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目(07SJD790014)
第一作者:王瑾(hollywood@njfu.edu.cn),博士生。*通信作者:聂影(ynieh@njfu.com.cn),教授。
引文格式:王瑾, 聂影. 中国松香产业内贸易类型评价[J]. 南京林业大学学报(自然科学版),2017,41(2):203-206.
PDF(1452493 KB)
