【目的】在城市化进程不断加速的背景下进行区域景观变化预测,对宜兴市近年来景观格局分布演变情况进行分析,探索城市化水平与景观格局变化之间的联系,为当地以及周边地区的景观规划研究提供借鉴。【方法】选用1996—2016年宜兴市的遥感影像数据,通过利用景观指数、转移矩阵分析在此期间景观分布的演变过程,并采用灰色预测模型估算其未来主要景观类型的变化趋势。【结果】在景观的演变过程中,建设用地、林草地持续扩张,面积分别增加了168.13、375.76 km²,且分布逐渐复杂,耕地、未利用地不断缩减,耕地与林草地在前期变动较大,动态度分别为-4.72%、10.18%,但耕地在后期面积几乎不再减少,分布也趋于规整;在城市化水平不断提升的过程中,耕地、林草地、建设用地的变化与城市化水平之间的联系十分紧密,相关性均高于0.8;在未来景观的发展过程中,耕地面积将处于动态稳定的状态,随着时间的推移,建设用地与林草地不断扩张,预测2016—2024年的涨幅分别为15.1%、35.4%。【结论】宜兴市1996—2016年景观格局变化明显,且城市化进程对建设用地、林草地、耕地的范围和分布产生了较大影响。

【Objective】Under the background of the accelerating urbanization process, the prediction of regional change can be used as a reference to study landscape planning in local and surrounding areas. To analyze the evolution of landscape pattern distribution in Yixing City in recent years, we explored the relationship between urbanization level and landscape pattern change. 【Method】The changing process of landscape distribution in Yixing was analyzed using landscape index and transfer matrix based on remote sensing image data from 1996 to 2016. Then, the gray prediction model was used to estimate the trend of the main types of landscapes in the future. 【Result】 Results showed that during the evolution of the landscape, construction land, forest and grassland continued to expand with the complication of distribution and the area increased by 168.13 and 375.76 km², respectively. Further, cultivated and unutilized lands were shrinking constantly. The cultivated land, forest and grassland changed greatly in the early period, and the ratios were -4.72% and 10.18%, respectively. However, the area of cultivated land did not considerably decrease from 2006 to 2016, and its distribution tended to be regular. With the continuous improvement of the urbanization level, connection between the urbanization level and cultivated land, grassland and construction land is close; the correlation is higher than 0.8. In the future evolution of the landscape, the arable land will be in a dynamic and stable state. With time, the construction land and forest and grassland would continue to be in an ever-expanding state, and the growth rate is predicted to be 15.1% and 35.4%, respectively, in 2016 and 2024. 【Conclusion】The landscape pattern of Yixing City changed significantly from 1996 to 2016 and the process of urbanization had a great impact on the scope and distribution of the construction land, cultivated land, forest and grassland, which could provide a general reference for the development of Yixing City and the surrounding areas.