【目的】最佳线性无偏预测(BLUP)方法是对遗传种质在不平衡环境下利用混合线性模型方程对育种值进行无偏预测,可有效估算与剔除环境效应,反映真实遗传效应,有较高精确性。应用BLUP方法估算育种值用于改良代亲本选择,对于青海云杉的遗传改良具有积极的参考价值。【方法】本研究在对13 a和14 a的两批青海云杉种子园自由授粉子代测定林的树高遗传分析基础上,利用BLUP方法,通过构建亲缘关系矩阵,对树高育种值进行估测。【结果】结果表明家系及家系和区组互作效应显著影响树高。两批青海云杉种子园自由授粉子代树高的家系遗传力分别为0.17和0.36,单株遗传力均为0.07。基于混合线性模型的BLUP方法估算家系亲本无性系树高育种值和真实树高、单株树高预测值和真实值均具有极显著相关关系,相关系数分别为0.99和0.86。根据家系亲本无性系育种值选出20个优良家系,根据优良家系后向选择母本无性系建立改良种子园的树高现实遗传增益分别为36%和26%。根据单株树高育种值采用配合选择方法从两批家系试验林各选出20个改良代优树,根据前向选择子代优良单株的树高预期遗传增益分别为7.6%和7.9%。【结论】对比后向选择和前向选择树高的遗传增益发现,青海云杉高世代育种中可优先后向选择,选择优良家系母本无性系建立1.5代改良代种子园。

【Objective】 The best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) method forecasts a breeding value using a mixed linear model equation, which reflects true genetic effects with high accuracy. 【Method】 This study used two open pollination progeny tests of Picea crassifolia Kom. at 13 and 14 years old obtained from a primary clonal seed orchardto evaluate genetic variation in height. A breeding value was predicted using the BLUP method. 【Result】Our results showed that family and interaction effects between family and blocks significantly affected height. The family hereditability for height of the trees from the two open pollination progeny were 0.17 and 0.36, respectively, while the individual hereditability were both 0.07. The Pearson correlation between the original value and the breeding value of the height at family level, or at individual level, were both high, and the Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.99 and 0.86, respectively. According to the breeding value of the parents of the families, 20 elite families were chosen and the reality genetic gain reached 36% and 26%, respectively. According to the individual breeding value estimated using the BLUP method, 20 plus trees were chosen, and the expected genetic gains were 7.6% and 7.9%, respectively. 【Conclusion】By comparing the genetic gain of backward selection and forward selection, it was determined that backward selection is the better choice in high-generation breeding ofPicea crassifolia.