【目的】四照花属(Cornus)是具有较好发展潜力的园艺观赏树种。通过生态位模型分析评价东亚四照花在中国的分布情况及主要限制环境因子,可为其资源的保护和利用提供理论依据。【方法】以343个东亚四照花的地理分布记录和19个环境因子为预测数据,采用 MaxEnt 模型对东亚四照花潜在适宜分布区进行预测。【结果】采用 MaxEnt 模型预测东亚四照花适宜分布区准确度极高(AUC值达 0.933)。东亚四照花的现代极高适宜分布区为四川与云南交界部分地区(100°~104°E,26°~27°N),四川省盆地西缘的部分地区(102°~103°E,29°~32.5°N),陕西省南部地区及陕西、四川、甘肃和湖北交界地区(105°~112°E,32°~34°N),湖南、湖北和重庆交界部分地区(108°~112°E,29°~32°N),四川、云南和贵州3省交界区(105°~108°E,26°~27°N),广东北部、广西北部、湖南南部和江西南部的部分地区(110°~118°E,25°~26°N),福建、 江西和浙江3省交界的部分地区(117°~122°E,25°~28°N)。影响东亚四照花分布的主要因子应为综合环境因子,主要为季节性的降水和温度变化以及极端低温。【结论】随着气候变暖,东亚四照花适生区不会发生迁移,只会逐渐破碎化并且越来越小。该模型的预测结果可以在大尺度上为东亚四照花种质资源的收集保护及适生区的区划提供科学依据。

【Objective】 Dogwoods (Cornus) are tree species with highly ornamental values that is highly popular in gardening, while species in group of East Asian grow extensively in natural in China. Ecological niche modeling can be used to analyze the distribution and the limiting environmental factors of East Asian dogwoods, which can provide a basis for protection and utilization of these resources. 【Method】 In this study, the MaxEnt model based on the data of 343 locations of East Asian dogwood samples and 19 environmental factors was used to predict the accuracy of the distribution area of this tree. 【Result】 According to the analysis results, the area under the curve (AUC) value was as high as 0.933, providing a high degree of accuracy. Regions with high distribution of East Asian dogwoods included the border of Sichuan and Yunnan (100°-104°E, 26°-27°N); western Sichuan (102°-103°E, 29°-32.5°N); southern Shannxi and the border areas of Shaanxi, Sichuan, Gansu and northern Guangxi (108°-112°E, 29°-32°N); the border areas of Hunan, Hubei and Chongqing (108°-112°E, 29°-32°N); the border areas of Fujian, Jiangxi and Zhejiang (117°-122°E, 25°-28°N); the border areas of Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou (105°-108°E, 26°-27°N); and northern Guangdong, northern Guangxi, southern Hunan, and southern Jiangxi (110°-118°E, 25°-26°N). We found that the distribution of East Asian dogwoods in China were mainly influenced by environmental factors including seasonal precipitation, seasonal temperature variation, and low temperatures. 【Conclusion】 With the warming of the climate, area of distribution of East Asian dogwoods tends to be fragmented and reduced instead of continuous distribution. Our prediction may provide a scientific basis for germplasm protection, collection, and suitable area division of East Asian dogwoods.