呼伦贝尔市气候变化对森林草原火灾的影响及未来趋势分析

张恒; 张秋良; 岳阳; 宋希明; 代海燕; 伊伯乐

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

张恒, 张秋良, 岳阳, 宋希明, 代海燕, 伊伯乐

南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5) : 222-230.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版） ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5) : 222-230. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

研究论文

呼伦贝尔市气候变化对森林草原火灾的影响及未来趋势分析

张恒 ¹ ,
张秋良 ¹^,^* ,
岳阳 ¹^,² ,
宋希明 ³ ,
代海燕 ⁴ ,
伊伯乐 ¹

作者信息 +

The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia

ZHANG Heng ¹ ,
ZHANG Qiuliang ¹^,^* ,
YUE Yang ¹^,² ,
SONG Ximing ³ ,
DAI Haiyan ⁴ ,
YI Bole ¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

【目的】气候变暖是引发森林和草原火灾发生次数增加和过火面积扩大的重要因素。呼伦贝尔草原是中国北方地区重要的生态防护屏障,也是目前受气候变化影响最为严重的区域之一。通过研究呼伦贝尔市气候和森林草原火灾的历史变化,计算未来变化趋势以及干旱指数,为该地区应对气象灾害以及森林草原火灾的防御准备工作提供理论依据。【方法】利用重标极差(R/S)分析法、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)分析等方法整理分析内蒙古自治区呼伦贝尔市1961—2018年的气象数据,得出过去及未来变化趋势以及干湿程度。通过分析1990—2018年呼伦贝尔市森林草原火灾数据,将气象要素与干旱状况分别与森林草原火灾数据相结合进行分析,得出火灾未来变化趋势。【结果】 ①1961—2018年内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气温和降水量增加,相对湿度和日照时间下降;气温未来变化趋势将与过去变化趋势相同,降水量、相对湿度、日照时间变化趋势将与过去变化趋势相反;2011年始呼伦贝尔市气候出现持续干旱状况,通过24个月的数据分析得出,未来将会持续保持干旱。②森林火灾的发生频度和过火面积均呈现上升趋势,分别为1次/a和318.38 hm ²/a;草原火灾的发生频度和过火面积均呈现下降趋势,分别为0.41次/a和12 486 hm ²/a。③当植物处于生长季时,草原火灾和森林火灾均与气温呈负相关,与降水量呈正相关,草原火灾与相对湿度和日照时间均呈正相关,森林火灾与相对湿度和日照时间均呈负相关。④森林草原的火灾频度和过火面积与短时间尺度SPEI均有很高的拟合程度,拟合曲线为二次函数。【结论】研究预测,未来呼伦贝尔地区干旱程度将会延续,森林草原火灾的发生与气象因素有很高的拟合度。建议当地有关部门在掌握本地气候变化基础上,制定合理的防护措施。

Abstract

【Objective】Climate warming is an important factor in the increase in number and area of forest and grassland fires. The Hulunbuir Grassland is an important ecological protection barrier in northern China, and occurs in a region significantly affected by climate change. The study of climate change and forest and grassland fires in Hulunbuir City provides a theoretical basis for the region to cope with meteorological disasters and prepare for forest and grassland fire prevention.【Method】Using R/S analysis and SPEI index analysis, meteorological data from 1961-2018 for Hulunbuir City (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region) were analyzed to determine past and future trends and the degree of dryness and wetness. By analyzing Hulunbuir City forest and grassland fire data from 1990-2018, future fire trends were identified. The results of the analyses (meteorological factors and drought conditions) were combined with the forest and grassland fire data for Hulunbuir City. 【Result】① Between 1961 and 2018, in Hulunbuir City, the temperature and precipitation increased, whereas the relative humidity and number of sunshine hours decreased. Future temperature change trends are likely to reflect the past but trends in precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours are likely to be opposite to the past. Drought has continued in Hulunbuir City since 2011 and analysis of 24 of data shows that the drought is most likely to continue in the future. ② The number and burn area of forest fires showed an upward trend, 1 times/a and 318.38 hm ²/a, respectively whereas the number and burn area of grassland fires showed a downward trend, 0.41 time/a and 12 486 hm ²/a, respectively. ③ During the growing season, both forest and grassland fires are negatively correlated with temperature and precipitation. Grassland fires are positively correlated with relative humidity and sunshine hours whereas forest fires are negatively correlated with these two factors. ④ The number and burn area of forest and grassland fires shows a high degree of fit with the segment time scale SPEI, and the fitted curve was a quadratic function. 【Conclusion】This study predicts that the degree of drought in Hulunbuir will continue in the future. The occurrence of forest and grassland fires has a high fit with meteorological factors. It is suggested that the local authorities concerned formulate reasonable protective measures on the basis of understanding local climate change.

导出引用

张恒, 张秋良, 岳阳, 等. 呼伦贝尔市气候变化对森林草原火灾的影响及未来趋势分析[J]. 南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）. 2020, 44(5): 222-230 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

ZHANG Heng, ZHANG Qiuliang, YUE Yang, et al. The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2020, 44(5): 222-230 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

中图分类号： S762

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http://www.ecologica.cn/stxb/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=stxb201111071684&flag=1

摘要

干旱是北京地区发生最频繁、波及面积最大、持续时间最长的一种自然灾害。基于1868—2010 年每月的降水和平均气温数据，应用综合了降水和气温变化共同效应的新的干旱指标标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）定量描述北京地区的干湿状况，并利用历史旱灾记录对其进行验证；采用连续小波转换(CWT)分析近150 a来的干旱振荡特征，并利用交叉小波变换(XWT)探论了干旱与大尺度气候因子之间的关系。结果表明：1）SPEI揭示的干旱与历史记录比较吻合，证明该指数可以在多时间尺度上有效地反映北京地区旱涝程度及其持续时间；2）北京地区干旱具有80—120个月年际尺度和250个月、480个月年代际尺度的周期振荡，呈现了同大尺度气候因子相似的变化特征；3）北京干旱变化与四大气候因子存在着多时间尺度的显著相关性，SPEI和北大西洋涛动（NAO）、北极涛动(AO)、太平洋涛动（PDO）都具有100—120个月和250个月的年代际主共振周期，而SPEI和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）在整个研究期内都表现出极显著的32—64个月年际主共振周期，同时SPEI与4个气候因子在共振周期上均体现出比较明确的时滞特征（2—6月不等）。因此，可以基于大尺度气象因子结合SPEI预测北京地区未来的干旱变化。

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https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128834

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16825536

本文引用 [1] 摘要

Western United States forest wildfire activity is widely thought to have increased in recent decades, yet neither the extent of recent changes nor the degree to which climate may be driving regional changes in wildfire has been systematically documented. Much of the public and scientific discussion of changes in western United States wildfire has focused instead on the effects of 19th- and 20th-century land-use history. We compiled a comprehensive database of large wildfires in western United States forests since 1970 and compared it with hydroclimatic and land-surface data. Here, we show that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire seasons. The greatest increases occurred in mid-elevation, Northern Rockies forests, where land-use histories have relatively little effect on fire risks and are strongly associated with increased spring and summer temperatures and an earlier spring snowmelt.

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