南京林业大学学报(自然科学版) ›› 1983, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (04): 151-155.doi: 10.3969/j.jssn.1000-2006.1983.04.013

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

对《昆虫种群动态模型及其图形理论》一文的初步看法

吴祖发   

  1. 南京林产工业学院林学系;77级学生
  • 出版日期:1983-12-18 发布日期:1983-08-18

ON “THE MODEL OF THE DYNAMIC OF INSECT POPULATION AND ITS GRAPH THEORY”

Wu Zufa   

  1. Department of Forestry
  • Online:1983-12-18 Published:1983-08-18

摘要: <正> 将宋健“人口发展过程的预测”理论应用到昆虫种群中去,应该说是一个有意义的尝试,但遗憾的是,冯晋臣老师的《昆虫种群动态模型及其图形理论》(以下简称《昆》文)在理论和方法的运用上出现了一系列的混乱和错误。他贸然得出“模型经实际使用,计算所得的种群动态趋势,与实际情况相一致”、“经实例计算证明,上述诸动态模型,使用效果较好”等结论,我们认为缺乏科学根据,经不起实践检验。假如《昆》文的作者对宋健“人口发展过程的预测”理论,以及系统分析与控制论的基本原理和实质有一定的理解并借鉴的话,那么就不至于如此。本文仅就四个方面的问题提出我们的看法。

Abstract: The author reports in this paper that mistakes have been found in "The Model of the Dynamic of Insect Population and Its Graph Theory" after his examination. The mistakes were mainly made in the following four aspects:1. The replacement of forecasting equation by the random difference equation.2. The use of the three examples as evidence taken from the known sample series to forecast the sample series itself.3. The inconformity of problems discussed with the mathematical model.4. Definition of each interval period of growth phases according to the metamorphoses of insects.