<正>本文运用时变模型研究森林资源动态,视影响森林资源变化因素为输入变量,建立随机差分模型,用状态方程描述森林资源动态。采用Kalman滤波对广西全区森林资源动态作出预测。检验结果表明,本文提出的预测模型和方法效果优良。

This paper deals with the dynamics of forest resources by using time-varing models. The varing factors to effect forest resources are used as input vectors, which derives the stochastic difference equations. The dynamics of forest resources is described as state equations and output equations.The Kalman filtering is used to forecast the dynamics of forest resources in Guangxi. The forecasting results are cheked and analyzed. The forecasting models and methods discussed in this paper are quite effective