<正>本文以安徽省休宁县山斗杉木种子园璜(王矛)区历年种子产量序列和该县气象局的气象资料为依据,应用树木年轮气候学及统计学手段筛选了6个预报气象因子,并用Fuzzy综合决策模型对该区的历年产量年景作了验证预报。研究结果表明,该区结实的年龄趋势方程以Chcpman-Richards函数y(t)=92.55(1—e~(-0.15t))~(1.79)拟合较好(r=0.99);广义Fuzzy运算的决策模型比初始模型的辨别率高,预报结果和历年实际产量年景基本吻合。本文还对山斗杉木种子园1990年的产量年景作了第一级预报。

Based on seed crop data of time scale and meteorlogy data in Shandou Seed Orchard of Chinese fir, Anhui Province, six meteorological factors have been selected as forecast factors by means of dendroclimatology and stepwise regression analysis, and seed crops of past year in the seed orchard of Chinese fir have been verified with fuzzy overall merit model. The results showed that Chapman-Richards model y(t)=92. 55( 1 - e-0.15t)1.79 was the best equation of tiem trend of seed crop in the seed orchard of Chinese fir (r = 0. 99); the discrimination of overall merif models with modified fuzzy operation was higher than that of initial fuzzy overall merit model, and the forecast results were basically in accordance with the real seed crops. The first grade forecast of seed crop in 1990 was also made for Shandou Seed Orchard of Chinese fir.